Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Projections of Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature Characteristics of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

To simulate effects of projected climate change on water temperature characteristics of small lakes in the contiguous U.S., a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water temperature model is applied. In cold regions the model simulates ice and snow cover on a lake. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous U.S. for the period 1961–1979 were used to represent present climate conditions. The projected climate change owing to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. The simulated water temperature and ice characteristics are related to the geometric and trophic state lake characteristics and to geographic location. By interpolation, the sensitivity of lake water temperature characteristics to latitude, longitude, lake geometry and trophic status can therefore be quantified for small lakes in the contiguous U.S. The 2× CO2 climate scenario is projected to increase maximum and minimum lake surface temperatures by up to 5.2°C. (Maximum surface water temperatures in lakes near the northern and the southern border of the contiguous U.S. currently differ by up to 13°C.) Maximum temperature differences between lake surface and lake bottom are projected to increase in average by only 1 to 2°C after climate warming. The duration of seasonal summer stratification is projected to be up to 66 days longer under a 2×CO2 climate scenario. Water temperatures of less than 8°C are projected to occur on lake bottoms during a period which is on the order of 50 days shorter under a 2×CO2 climate scenario. With water temperature change projected to be as high as 5.2°C, ecological impacts such as shifts in species distributions and in fish habitat are most likely. Ice covers on lakes of northern regions would also be changed strongly.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Beamish, R. J. (ed.): 1995, ‘Climate Change and Northern Fish Populations’, Can. Special Publ. Fish. Aquatic Sci. 121, National Research Council of Canada, Ottawa, p. 739.

  • Blumberg, A. F. and Di Toro, D. M.: 1990, ‘Effects of Climate Warming on Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in Lake Erie’, Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 119(2), 210-223.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boer, G. J., McFarlane, N. A., and Lazare, M.: 1992, ‘Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change Simulated with the CCC Second-Generation General Circulation Model’, J. Climate 5(10), 1045-1077.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang, L. H., Railsback, S. F., and Brown, R. T.: 1990, ‘Use of Reservoir Water Quality Model to Simulate Global Climate Change Effects on Fish Habitat’, Clim. Change 20, 277-296.

    Google Scholar 

  • Coutant, C. C.: 1990, ‘Temperature-Oxygen Habitat for Freshwater and Coastal Striped Bass in a Changing Climate’, Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 199(2), 240-253.

    Google Scholar 

  • DeStasio, B. T., Jr., Hill, D. K., Kleinhaus, J. M., Nibbelink, N. P., and Magnuson, J. J.: 1996, ‘Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on Small North-Temperature Lakes: Physics, Fish and Plankton’, Limnol. Oceanog. 41(5), 1136-1149.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eaton, J. G., McCormick, J. H., Goodno, B. E., O'Brien, D. G., Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., and Scheller, R. M.: 1995, ‘A Field Information-Based System for Estimating Fish Temperature Tolerances’, Fisheries 20(4), 10-18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edinger, J. E., Dutweiler, D. W., and Geyer, J. C.: 1968, ‘The Response of Water Temperature to Meteorological Conditions’, Water Resour. Res. 4(5), 1137-1143.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1994, ‘Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen Simulations in a Lake with Ice Cover’, Project Report 356, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, p. 65.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1996a, ‘Long-Term Lake Water Temperature and Ice Cover Simulations/Measurements’, Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 24(3), 289-304.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1996b, ‘Dynamics of Heat Exchange Between Sediment and Water in a Lake’, Water Resour. Res. 32(6), 1719-1727.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1996c, ‘Development and Validation of the Water Quality Model MIN-LAKE96 with Winter Data’, Project Report 390, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, p. 47.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1996d, ‘Projections of Potential Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen and Associated Fish Habitat of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S., Vol. I — Effects of Present Climate Conditions’, Project Report 393, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, p. 196.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X., Ellis, C. E., and Stefan, H. G.: 1996, ‘Simulation and Observation of Ice Formation (Freeze-Over) in a Lake’, Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 24, 129-145.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X., Psapula, R., and Stefan, H. G.: 1997, ‘Projections of Potential Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen and Associated Fish Habitat of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S., Vol. II — Effects of Projected Future Climate Conditions’, Project Report 403, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, p. 234.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1997, ‘Simulated Climate Changes on Dissolved Oxygen Characteristics in Ice-Covered Lakes’, Ecol. Model. 103, 209-229.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1998a, ‘Temperature Variability in Lake Sediments’, Water Resour. Res. 34(4): 717-729.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1998b, ‘Potential Climate Warming Effects on Ice Covers of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.’, Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 27, 119-140.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fang, X. and Stefan, H. G.: 1998c, ‘Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern Contiguous U.S.’, Environ. Manage., submitted.

  • Ferguson, R. G.: 1958, ‘The Preferred Temperature of Fish and Their Mid-Summer Distribution in Temperate Lakes and Streams’, J. Fish. Res. Bd. Can. 15, 607-624.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gorham, E. and Boyce, F. M.: 1989, ‘Influence of Lake Surface Area and Depth Upon Thermal Stratification and the Depth of the Summer Thermocline’, J. Great Lakes Res. 15, 233-245.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gu, R. and Stefan, H. G.: 1990, ‘Year-Round Temperature Simulation of Cold Climate Lakes’, Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 18(2), 147-160.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hondzo, M. and Stefan, H. G.: 1993a, ‘Lake Water Temperature Simulation Model’, J. Hydraulic Eng. ASCE 119(11), 1251-1273.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hondzo, M. and Stefan, H. G.: 1993b, ‘Regional Water Temperature Characteristics of Lakes Subjected to Climate Change’, Clim. Change 24, 187-211.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hutchinson, G. E.: 1957, A Treatise on Limnology, Vols. 1, 2 and 3, Wiley, New York, p. 1015, p. 1115, p. 660, respectively.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hynes, H. B. N.: 1968, The Ecology of Running Water, University of Toronto Press, p. 555.

  • Jones, P. D., Wigley, T. M. L., and Wright, P. B.: 1986, ‘Global Temperature Variations Between 1861 to 1984’, Nature 332(1), 430-434.

    Google Scholar 

  • Keast, A.: 1968, ‘Feeding of Some Great Lakes Fishes at Low Temperatures’, J. Fish Res. Bd. Can. 25(6), 1199-1218.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerr, R. A.: 1989, ‘1988 Ties for Warmest Year’, Science 243(17), 891-892.

    Google Scholar 

  • Magnuson, J. J., Meisner, J. D., and Hill, D. K.: 1990, ‘Potential Changes in Thermal Habitat of Great Lakes Fish after Global Climate Warming’, Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 119(2), 254-264.

    Google Scholar 

  • McCormick, M. J.: 1990, ‘Potential Changes in Thermal Structure and Cycle of Lake Michigan Due to Global Warming’, Trans. Amer. Fish. Soc. 119(2), 183-194.

    Google Scholar 

  • McFarlane, Boer, G. J., Blanchet, J. P., and Lazare, M.: 1992, ‘The Canadian Climate Centre Second-Generation General Circulation Model and Its Equilibrium Climate’, J. Climate 5(10), 1013-1044.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKnight, D., Brakke, D. F., and Mulholland, P. J.: 1996, ‘Freshwater Ecosystems and Climate Change in North America’, Limnol. Oceanogr. 41(5), 1149.

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (National Research Council): 1982, Carbon Dioxide/Climate Review Panel. Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Second Assessment, National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (National Research Council): 1983, Changing Climate: Report of the Carbon Dioxide Assessment Committee, National Academy Press, Washington D.C.

    Google Scholar 

  • Poff, N. L., Tokar, S., and Johnson, P.: 1996, ‘Stream Hydrological and Ecological Responses to Climate Change Assessed with an Artificial Neural Network’, Limnol. Oceanogr. 41(5), 857-863.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinokrot, B., Stefan, H., and McCormick, J. H.: 1995, ‘Modeling of Climate Change Effects on Stream Temperatures and Fish Habitat below Dams and near Groundwater Inputs’, Clim. Change 30, 181-200.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D.: 1989, ‘The Potential Effects of Global Climate Changes on the United States’, Report to Congress, USEPA, EPA-230-05-89-050, p. 413.

  • Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., and Fang, X.: 1993, ‘Lake Water Quality Modeling for Projected Future Climate Scenarios’, J. Environ. Qual. 22(3), 417-431.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., Fang, X., and Rasmussen, A. H.: 1994, ‘Year-Round Water Temperature and Dissolved Oxygen Simulation Model for Lakes With Winter Ice Cover’, Project Report 355, St. Anthony Falls Laboratory, University of Minnesota, p. 74.

  • Stefan, H. G., Hondzo, M., Eaton, J. G., and McCormick, J. H.: 1995, ‘Predicted Effects of Global Climate Change on Fishes in Minnesota Lakes’, in Beamish, R. J. (ed.), Climate Change and Northern Fish Polutions, American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, MD, pp. 57-72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stefan, H. G. and Fang, X.: 1995, ‘A Methodology to Estimate Year-Round Effects of Climate Change on Water Temperature, Ice and Dissolved Oxygen Characteristics of Temperate Zone Lakes with Application to Minnesota’, Project Report No. 377, St. Anthony Falls Hydraulic Laboratory, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, p. 113.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stefan, H. G., Fang, X., and Hondzo, M.: 1998, ‘Simulated Climate Change Effects on Year-Round Water Temperatures in Temperate Zone Lakes’, Clim. Change, in press.

  • Stefan, H. G. and Fang, X.: 1997, ‘Simulated Climate Change Effects on Ice and Snow Covers on Lakes in a Temperate Region’, Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 25, 137-152.

    Google Scholar 

  • Thomann, R. V. and Mueller, J. A.: 1987, Principles of Surface Water Quality Modeling and Control, Harper Collins Publishers, New York, NY, p. 644.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wetzel, R. G.: 1983, Limnology, Harcourt Brace College Publ., Orlando, FL, p. 767.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Lamar University, Beaumont, Texas, 77710, U.S.A.

    Xing Fang

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, 55414, U.S.A.

    Heinz G. Stefan

Authors
  1. Xing Fang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Heinz G. Stefan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fang, X., Stefan, H.G. Projections of Climate Change Effects on Water Temperature Characteristics of Small Lakes in the Contiguous U.S.. Climatic Change 42, 377–412 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005431523281

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005431523281

Keywords

Search

Navigation