An Assessment of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh: The Experience of the 1998 Flood

Abstract

Floods are among the most costly natural disasters interms of human sufferings and economic losses inBangladesh. Approximately 20% of the countryexperiences normal annual flooding while all thehistorical catastrophic floods inundated more thanfifty percent of the country's total area. The recentflood in 1998 has been found to be more severe thanall previous floods. During the flooding season of1998, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC)of the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB)prepared daily flood bulletin and incorporatedinformation about rainfall, rise/fall of riverwater, flood forecasting for 24 and 48 hr inadvance and warning messages (if any). The FFWCattempted to provide adequate services to the localand national level decision-making process. Theforecasting procedure adapted by the FFWC was based onhydrological information, forecaster's experience, andmodel simulation. This paper primarily examines therole and activities of the FFWC, especially in floodforecasting and warning. Identification of the causesand consequences of 1998 flood is the other pertinentarea of discussion of the paper.

Findings of this research revealed that the flood of1998 was caused by heavy downpour in the upstream thatwas drained out through the major rivers inBangladesh. Three major rivers' peak was synchronizedand characterized it as the most prolonged flood inthe history of Bangladesh. It also revealed that,despite various limitations, the flood forecasts ofthe FFWC were reasonably adequate to meet nationaldemand during the crises of 1998.