Abstract
Models which enable the representation of spatially variable crop performance are central to site-specific management. Rarely have these models been considered in relation to the different sources of uncertainty facing the decision maker. This paper describes various sources of uncertainty (temporal, metrical, structural, and translational) in the context of the site-specific management problem and the model types proposed to solve the problem. An example involving the site specific application of nitrogen fertilizer in dryland wheat production is presented to show how these model types might be evaluated for suitability to a given situation. We conclude that in data poor situations, knowledge-driven models may be less accurate but preferred by the farmer, while in data rich situations data-driven models may be more appropriate.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
M. L. Adams, S. E. Cook, P. A. Caccetta, and M. J. Pringle, in Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Precision Agriculture, edited by P. C. Robert, R. H. Rust, and W. E. Larson ASAr CSSAr SSSA, Madison, WI, 1999,p.1321.
T. M. Addiscott and R. J. Wagenet, J. Soil Sci.36,411 1985.
J. R. Anderson, J. L. Dillon, and J. B. Hardaker, Agricultural Decision Analysis Iowa State University. Press, Ames, 1977.
J. F. Angus, J. W. Bowden, and B. A. Keating, Plant and Soil 57 1993.
S. Asseng, I. R. P. Fillery, G. C. Anderson, P. J. Dolling, F. X. Dunin, and B. A. Keating, Aust. J. Agric. Res. 49, 363 1998.
H. W. G. Booltink, J. Verhagen, J. Bouma, and P. K. Thorton, in Precision Agriculture: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Precision Agriculture, edited by P. C. Robert, R. H. Rust, and W. E. Larson ASArCSSArSSSA, Madison, 1996, p. 343.
G. Briscoe and T. Caelli, A Compendium of Machine Learning, Volume 1: Symbolic Machine Learning. Ablex, Norwood, New Jersey,1996.
P. A. Burrough, J. Soil Sci. 34, 577 1983.
C. Cao and N. Lam, in Scale in Remote Sensing and GIS, edited by D. A. Quattrochi and M. F. Goodchild CRCrLewis, Boca Raton, 1996.
P. R. Cohen, Heuristic Reasoning about Uncertainty: An Artificial Intelligence Approach Pitman, London,1985.
S. E. Cook, in Precision Agriculture: What can it offer the Australian Sugar Industry?, edited by R. G. V. Bramley, S. E. Cook, and G. G. McMahon CSIRO Land and Water, Townsville, 1997,p.77.
S. E. Cook and M. L. Adams, in Precision Weed Management in Crops and Pastures, edited by R. W. Medd and J. E. Pratley R. G. and F. J. Richardson, Melbourne, 1998 p. 101.
S. E. Cook, R. J. Corner, G. Grealish, P. E. Gessler, and C. J. Chartres, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 60, 1893.1996a.
S. E. Cook, R. J. Corner, G. Mussell, G. Riethmuller, and D. Maitland, in Precision Agriculture: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Precision Agriculture, edited by P. C. Robert, R. H. Rust, and W. E. Larson ASArCSSArSSSA, Madison, 1996b p.1123.
R. J. Corner, G. Moore, S. Cook, and E. Raaff, Expector:A Manual for the Expector Soil Attribute. Mapping Method CSIRO Land and Water, Adelaide, 1998.
B. Crossland, P. A. Bennett, A. F. Ellis, D. R. Farmer, J. Gittus, P. S. Godfrey, E. C. Hambly, T. A. Kletz, and F. P. Lees, in Risk: Analysis, Perception and Management Royal Society, London, 1992 p.13.
R. Davis, AI Magaizine 3 2 3 1982.
B. A. Engel, R. H. Thieme, and A. D. Whittaker, in Knowledge Engineering in Agriculture, edited by J. R. Barrett and D. D. Jones ASAE, St. Joseph, MI, 1989 Chapter 5.
S. Ferson and L. R. Ginzburg, Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54, 133 1996.
C. A. Gotway, R. B. Ferguson, G. W. Hergert, and T. A. Peterson, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J. 60, 1237 1996.
R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objecti¨es: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs Wiley, New York, 1976.
R. M. Lark, J. V. Stafford, and H. C. Bolam, J. Agric. Engng. Res. 66, 183 1997.
H. Linstone, in Multiple Perspecti¨es for Decision Making: Bridging the Gap Between Analysis and Action. Elsevier, New York, 1984 p. 6.
A. B. McBratney, B. M. Whelan, and T. M. Shatar, in Precision Agriculture: Spatial and Temporal Variability of En¨ironmental Quality edited by J. V. Lake, G. R. Bock, and J. A. Goode John Wiley. & Sons, New York, 1997 p. 141.
D. Michie, D. J. Spiegelhalter, and C. C. Taylor, Machine Learning, Neural and Statistical Classification. Ellis Horwood, New York, 1994.
H. Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning: Reconcei¨ing Roles for Planning, Plans, Planners. Free Press, New York, 1994.
J. Neter, W. Wasserman, and M. H. Kutner, Applied Linear Statistical Models: Regression, Analysis of. Variance, and Experimental Designs, Third Edition Irwin, Boston, 1990.
J. B. Passioura, Agronomy Journal 88, 690 1996.
J. T. Ritchie, D. C. Godwin, and S. Otter, CERESWheat: A User Oriented Wheat Model. Preliminary Documentation, AgRISTARS Publication No. YM–U3–04442-JSC-18892 Michigan State University, Michigan, 1985.
S. D. Robinson, Selecting Wheat Varieties in a Stochastic En¨ironment, paper presented at the 39th Annual Conference of the Australian Agricultural Economics Society, Perth, Western Australia, 1995.
W. D. Rowe, Risk Analysis 14, 743 1994.
E. J. Sadler and G. Russell, in The State of Site-Specific Management for Agriculture, edited by F. J. Pierce. and E. J. Sadler ASArCSSArSSSA. Madison, 1997p. 69.
A. F. M. Smith, in D. J. Spiegelhalter, R. P. Knill-Jones, J. R. Statist. Soc. A 147, Part I, 35 1984.
D. E. Spellman, A. Rongni, D. G. Westfall, R. M. Waskom, and P. N. Soltanpour, Commun. Soil Sci.Plant Anal. 27, 561 1996.
D. Spiegelhalter, in Readings in Uncertain Reasoning, edited by G. Shafer and J. Pearl Morgan. Kaufmann Publishers, San Mateo, California p. 313.
H. E. Stephanou and A. P. Sage, IEEE Trans. Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-17, 780 1987.
R. Webster and A. B. McBratney, J. Soil Sci. 40, 493 1989.
B. Whelan and A. B. McBratney, in Precision Agriculture '97: Proceedings of the 1st European Conference. on Precision Agriculture, edited by J. V. Stafford Bios Scientific Publishers, Oxford, 1997p. 759.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Adams, M.L., Cook, S. & Corner, R. Managing Uncertainty in Site-Specific Management: What is the Best Model?. Precision Agriculture 2, 39–54 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009984516714
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1009984516714