Abstract
A recent formula due to Bongaarts and Feeney allows us todisentangle tempo and quantum effects in changes of the totalfertility rate. This article applies the TFR adjustment toBulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia.Substantial differences between the adjusted and the observed TFRindicate important tempo effects in the recent decline offertility. Moreover, these five countries differ in the relativeimportance of tempo versus quantum effects, and in the periodwhen tempo effects are most relevant. We discuss the validity ofthe assumptions that underlie the usage of the formula and wetest whether age-period interactions may invalidate theseassumptions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, Gr., 1998. 'On the quantum and tempo of fertility', Population and Development Review 24: 271–292.
Brass, W., 1984. 'Transforming Gompertz's function of fertility analysis: the development of a standard for the relational Gompertz function', Population Studies 38(1984): 495–506.
Coale, A. and Trussell, J., 1974. 'Model fertility schedules: variations in the age structure of childbearing in human population', Population Index 40(2): 185–258.
Council of Europe, 1998. Recent Demographic Developments in Europe. Council of Europe, Strasbourg.
Courgeau, D. and Lelièvre, E., 1992. Event History Analysis in Demography. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press, 1996. 'Russia's demographic crisis: a long-range view', Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press 48: 11–12. Condensed and translated from Moskovskiye Novosti and Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Mar. 17–24, 1996.
Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press, 1997a. 'Crisis: country of massive mortality', Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press 49: 4–5. Condensed and translated from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, May 30, 1997.
Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press, 1997b. 'Russia's health crisis continues to deepen', Current Digest of Post-Soviet Press 49: 7–8. Condensed and translated from various Russian sources, May 13–15, 1997.
DaVanzo, J. (ed) with the assistance of Gwendolyn Farnsworth, 1996. Russia's Demographic “Crisis”. RAND Conference Proceedings.
EBRD, 1997. Transition Report 1997. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
EBRD, 1999. Transition Report 1999. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Festy, P., 1991. La fécondité en Europe de l'Est depuis 1950. Population, mai-juin 1991.
Frątczak, E. and Ptak-Chmielewska, A., 2000. The Bongaarts-Feeney Formula - an Application for Poland (in Polish). Forthcoming in: Studia Demograficzne No. 1, 2000.
Hajnal, J., 1947. 'The analysis of birth statistics in the light of the recent international recovery of the birth-rate', Population Studies 1: 137–164.
Kohler, H.-P. and Kohler, I., 1999. Fertility Decline in Russia: Social versus Economic Factors. Paper presented at the European Population Conference, Den Hague.
Kohler, H.-P. and Philipov, D., 2001. 'Variance effects and nonlinearities in the Bongaarts-Feeney formula', Demography. Forthcoming.
Lesthaeghe, R. and Van de Kaa, D., 1986. 'Twee Demografische Transities? (Two demographic transitions?)', in D. J. Van de Kaa and R. Lesthaeghe (eds), Bevolking: Groei en Krimp (Population: Growth or Decline). Deventer, Van Loghum Slaterus.
Monnier, A., 1996. 'L'impact démographique de la transition dans les pays d'Europe centrale et orientale', Courrier Des Pays De L'Est 1996(409): 74–91.
Ní-Bhrolchain, M., 1992. 'Period paramount? A critique of the cohort approach to fertility', Population and Development Review 18: 599–629.
Rabušic, L., 1996. 'On marriage and family trends in the Czech Republic in the mid-1990s', Socialni Studia 38(1): 29–42.
Ranjan, P., 1998. 'Fertility behaviour under income uncertainty', European Journal of Population 15: 25–43.
Rychtařiková, J., 1999. Is Eastern Europe Experiencing a Second Demographic Transition? Report presented at the Lowest-Low FertilityWorkshop, Max-Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock.
Rogers, A., 1986. 'Parameterized multistate population dynamics and projections', Journal of the American Statistical Association LXXXI(393): 48–61.
Ryder, N., 1956. 'Problems of trend determination during a transition in fertility', Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly 34: 5–21.
Selvin, S., 1996. Statistical Analysis of Epidemiologic Data. Oxford University Press, New York, Oxford.
StataCorp, 1999. Stata Statistical Software: Release 6.0. Stata Corporation, College Station, TX.
UNDP, 1995. Human Development Report, Bulgaria. United Nations Development Program, Sofia.
Van de Kaa, D., 1987. 'Europe's second demographic transition', Population Bulletin 42(1). The Population Reference Bureau, Washington.
Vishnevskii, A., 1999. 'The demographic potential of Russia', Russian Social Science Review 40(4):4–29.
Zakharov, S., 1997. 'Fertility trends in Russia and the European New Independent States: crisis or turning point?', United Nations, Population Division, Expert Group Meeting on Below-Replacement Fertility. New York, 4–6 November 1997. ESA/P/WP.140, 271–290. Revised version forthcoming.
Zakharov, S. and Ivanova, E., 1996. 'Fertility decline and recent changes in Russia: on the threshold of the second demographic transition', in DaVanzo (ed., with the assistance of G. Farnsworth), Russia's Demographic “Crisis”. RAND Conference Proceedings.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Philipov, D., Kohler, HP. Tempo Effects in the Fertility Decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia. European Journal of Population 17, 37–60 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010740213453
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010740213453