Abstract
A space of “not-implausible” scenarios for Egypt's future under climate change is defined along two dimensions. One depicts representative climate change and climate variability scenarios that span the realm of possibility. Some would not be very threatening. Others portend dramatic reductions in average flows into Lake Nassar and associated increases in the likelihood of year to year shortfalls below critical coping thresholds; these would be extremely troublesome, especially if they were cast in the context of increased political instability across the entire Nile Basin. Still others depict futures along which relatively routine and relatively inexpensive adaptation might be anticipated. The ability to adapt to change and to cope with more severe extremes would, however, be linked inexorably to the second set of social–political–economic scenarios. The second dimension, defined as “anthropogenic” social/economic/political scenarios describe the holistic environment within which the determinants of adaptive capacity for water management, agriculture, and coastal zone management must be assessed.
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Strzepek, K., Yates, D., Yohe, G. et al. Constructing “not Implausible” Climate and Economic Scenarios for Egypt. Integrated Assessment 2, 139–157 (2001). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013387619362
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1013387619362