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Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?

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Abstract

This paper analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively the effects of declining mortality rates on fertility, education and economic growth. The analysis demonstrates that if individuals are prudent in the face of uncertainty about child survival, a decline in an exogenous mortality rate reduces precautionary demand for children and increases parental investment in each child. Once mortality is endogenized, population growth becomes a hump-shaped function of income per capita. At low levels of income population growth rises as income per capita rises leading to a Malthusian steady-state equilibrium, whereas at high levels of income population growth declines leading to a sustained growth steady-state equilibrium.

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  1. Department of Economics, University of Houston, Houston, TX, 77204

    Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

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  1. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan
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Kalemli-Ozcan, S. Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?. Journal of Economic Growth 7, 411–439 (2002). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1020831902045

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