Abstract
Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action (Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by `experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term `external' and `internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived – it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger.
References
Adger, W. N.: 1999, 'Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam', World Development 27, 249–269.
Adger, W. N.: 2003, 'Social Capital, Collective Action and Adaptation to Climate Change', Economic Geography 79, 387–404.
Allen, M.: 2003, 'Liability for Climate Change: Will it Ever be Possible to Sue Anyone for Damaging the Climate?', Nature 421, 891–892.
Barnett, J.: 2003, 'Security and Climate Change', Global Environ. Change 13, 7–17.
Barnett, J. and Adger, W. N.: 2003, 'Climate Dangers and Atoll Countries', Clim. Change 61, 321–337.
Berkes, F. and Jolly, D.: 2001, “Adapting to Climate ChangeL Social-Ecological Resilience in a Canadian Western Arctic Community', Conservation Ecology 5, 18 (online) www.consecol.org/Journal/vol5/iss2/.
Blackwood, D. L. and Lynch, R. G.: 1994, 'The Measurement of Inequality and Poverty: A Policy Maker's Guide to the Literature', World Development 22, 567–578.
Board, R. J., Fisher, A., and O'Connor, R. E.: 1998, 'Public Perceptions of Global Warming: United States and International Perspectives', Clim. Res. 11, 75–84.
Bohle, H. G., Downing, T. E., and Watts, M. J.: 1994, 'Climate Change and Social Vulnerability: Toward a Sociology and Geography of Food Insecurity', Global Environ. Change 4, 37–48.
Bostrom, A., Morgan, M. G., Fischoff, B., and Read, D.: 1994, 'What do People Know about Global Climate Change? 1. Mental Models', Risk Analysis 14, 959–970.
Brown, K., Adger, W. N., Tompkins, E., Bacon, P., Shim, D., and Young, K.: 2001, 'Trade-Off Analysis for Marine Protected Area Management', Ecological Economics 37, 417–434.
Devereux, S.: 1993, Theories of Famine, Harvester Wheatsheaf, London, 208 pp.
de Waal, A.: 1989, Famine that Kills: Darfur, Sudan, 1984-1985, Clarendon, Oxford, 258 pp.
Downing, T.: 2003, 'Toward a Vulnerability/Adaptation Science: Lessons from Famine Early Warning and Food Security', in Smith, J., Klein, R. J. T., and Huq, S. (eds.), Developing Countries and Sustainable Adaptation to Climate Change, Imperial College Press, London, pp. 71–100.
Dunlap, R. E.: 1998: 'Lay Perceptions of Global Risk-Public Views of Global Warming in Cross-National Context, International Sociology 13, 473–498.
Fankhauser, S.: 1995, Valuing Climate Change: The Economics of the Greenhouse, Earthscan, London, 176 pp.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., and Combs, B.: 1978, 'How Safe is Safe Enough? A Psychometric Study of Attitudes toward Technological Risks and Benefits', Policy Sciences 9, 127–152.
Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R.: 1991: 'A New Scientific Methodology for Global Environmental Issues', in Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and Management of Sustainability, Columbia University Press, New York, pp. 137–152.
Homer-Dixon, T.: 1991, 'On the Threshold: Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict', International Security 16, 76–116.
Hulme, M. and Jenkins, G. J.: 1998, Climate Change Scenarios for the U.K.: Scientific Report, UKCIP Technical Report No. 1, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, 80 pp.
Irwin, A.: 1995, Citizen Science: A Study of People, Expertise and Sustainable Development, Routledge, London, 198 pp.
Jones, R. N.: 2000, 'Analysing the Risk of Climate Change Using an Irrigation Demand Model', Clim. Res. 14, 89–100.
Jones, R. N., Lim, B., and Burton, I.: 2003, 'Coping Ranges and Climate Risk Assessment: A New Approach to Vulnerability and Adaptation', Clim. Change, submitted.
Kasemir, B. Dahinden, U., Swartling, A. G., Schüle, R., Rabara, D., and Jaeger, C. C.: 2000, 'Citizen's Perspectives on Climate Change and Energy Use', Global Environ. Change 10, 169–184.
Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E., Pidgeon, N., and Slovic, P.: 2003, 'The Social Amplification of Risk: Assessing Fifteen Years of Research and Theory', in Pidgeon, N., Kasperson, R. E., and Slovic, P. (eds.), The Social Amplification of Risk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 13–46.
Kasperson, R., Renn, O., Slovic, P., Brown, H. S., Emel, J., Goble, R., Kasperson, J. X., and Ratick, S.: 1988, 'The Social Amplification of Risk: A Conceptual Framework', Risk Analysis 8, 177–187.
Kempton, W.: 1991, 'Lay Perspectives on Global Climate Change', Global Environ. Change 1, 183–208.
Lash, S., Szerszynski, B., and Wynne, B. (eds.): 1996, Risk, Environment and Modernity: Towards a New Ecology, Sage Publications, London, 294 pp.
Lise,W. and Tol, R. S. J.: 2002, 'Impact of Climate on Tourist Demand', Clim. Change 55, 429–449.
Löfstedt, R. E.: 1991, 'Climate Change Perceptions and Energy-Use Decisions in Northern Sweden', Global Environ. Change 1, 321–324.
Maddison, D.: 2001, The Amenity Value of the Global Climate, Earthscan, London, 144 pp.
Malcolm, J. R. and Markham, A.: 2000, Global Warming and Terrestrial Biodiversity Decline, World Wide Fund For Nature, Gland, Switzerland, 35 pp.
Mazur, A.: 1998, 'Global Environmental Change in the News-1987-90 versus 1992-6', International Sociology 13, 457–472.
McDaniels, R., Axelrod, L. R., and Slovic, P.: 1996, 'Perceived Ecological Risks of Global Change: A Psychometric Comparison of Causes and Consequences', Global Environ. Change 6, 159–171.
McKenzie Hedger, M., Gawith, M., Brown, I., Connell, R., and Downing, T. E. (eds.): 2000, Climate Change: Assessing the Impacts-Identifying Responses. The First Three Years of the U.K. Climate Impacts Programme, UKCIP Technical Report, UKCIP and DETR, Oxford, 168 pp.
Meyer, W. B., Butzer, K. W., Downing, T. E., Turner II, B. L., Wenzel, G. W., and Wescoat, J. L.: 1998, 'Reasoning by Analogy', in Rayner, S. and Malone, E. L. (eds.), Human Choice and Climate Change, Vol. 3, The Tools for Policy Analysis, Battelle Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 217–289.
Meze-Hausken, E.: 2003, 'Migration and Climate Change: An Exploration of Human Thresholds to Climate Variability and Change-A Case-Study from North Ethiopia', Clim. Change, under revision.
Morgan, D. L.: 1997, Focus Groups as Qualitative Research, Qualitative Research Methods Series, Sage, Thousand Oaks, 80 pp.
Morgan, M. G., Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1999, 'Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis are often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change', Clim. Change 41, 271–281.
Nordhaus, W. D. and Boyer, J.: 2000, Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming, MIT Press, Cambridge, 232 pp.
O'Connor, R. E., Board, R. J., and Fisher, A.: 1999, 'Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change', Risk Analysis 19, 461–471.
Office of Science and Technology: 2003, 'Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project', Working Paper, 48 pp.
O'Neill, B. C. and Oppenheimer M.: 2002, 'Dangerous Climate Impacts and the Kyoto Protocol', Science 296, 1971–1972.
papers/wp23.pdf>
Parry, M., Arnell, N., McMichael, A., Nicholls, R., Martens, P., Kovats, S., Livermore, M., Rosenweig, C., Iglesias, A., and Fischer, G.: 2001, 'Millions at Risk: Defining Critical Climate Change Threats and Targets', Global Environ. Change 11, 181–183.
Parry, M. and Carter, T.: 1998, Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment, Earthscan, London, 166 pp.
Pidgeon, N., Kasperson, R. E., and Slovic, P. (eds.): 2003, The Social Amplification of Risk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 448 pp.
Poortinga, W. and Pidgeon, N.: 2003, Public Perceptions of Risk, Science and Governance: Main Findings of a British Survey of Five Risk Cases, Centre for Environmental Risk, University of East Anglia, Norwich, 60 pp.
Rahmstorf, S.: 2000, 'The Thermohaline Ocean Circulation: A System with Dangerous Thresholds?', Clim. Change 46, 247–256.
Rayner, S. and Malone, E. L. (eds.): 1998, Human Choice and Climate Change, Vol. 1, The Societal Framework, Battelle Press, Washington, D.C., 489 pp.
Read, D., Bostrom, A., Morgan, M. G., Fischoff, B., and Smuts, T.: 1994, 'What Do People Know about Global Climate Change? 2. Survey Studies of Educated Laypeople', Risk Analysis 14, 971–982.
Rotmans, J. and Dowlatabadi, H.: 1998, 'Integrated Assessment Modelling', in Rayner, S. and Malone, E. L. (eds.), Human Choice and Climate Change, Vol. 3, The Tools for Policy Analysis, Battelle Press, Washington, D.C., pp. 291–377.
Saloranta, T. M.: 2001, 'Post-Normal Science and the Global Climate Change Issue', Clim. Change 50, 395–404.
Schneider, S.: 2001, 'What is “Dangerous” Climate Change?', Nature 411, 17–19.
Schneider, S.: 2002, 'Can we Estimate the Likelihood of Climatic Changes at 2100?', Clim. Change 52, 441–451.
Segerson, K.: 1992, 'The Policy Response to Risk and Risk Perceptions', in Bromley, D. W. and Segerson K. (eds.), The Social Response to Environmental Risk: Policy Formulation in an Age of Uncertainty, Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp. 101–130.
The Scottish Evening News: 2001, 'Britain Heading for a Big Freeze', 6 September 2001.
Slovic, P.: 1987, 'Perception of Risk', Science 236, 280–285.
Smith, J. B., Schellnhuber, H. J., Mirza, M. A. Q., Fankhauser, S., Leemans, R., Erda, L., Ogallo, L., Pittock, B., Richels, R., Rosenzweig, C., Safriel, U., Tol, R. S. J., Weyant, J., and Yohe, G.: 2001, 'Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern', in McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J., and White, K. S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 913–967.
Stehr, N. and von Storch, H.: 1995, 'The Social Construct of Climate and Climate Change', Clim. Res. 5, 99–105.
Stewart, D. W. and Shamdasani, P. N.: 1990, Focus Groups: Theory and Practice, Applied Social Research Methods Series, Sage Publications, Newbury Park, CA, 153 pp.
Swart, R. J. and Vellinga, P.: 1994, 'The “Ultimate Objective” of the Framework Convention on Climate Change Requires a New Approach in Climate Change Research', Clim. Change 26, 343–349.
Tansey, J., Carmichael, J., van Wynsberghe, R., and Robinson, J.: 2002, 'The Future is not what it Used to Be: Participatory Integrated Assessment in the Georgia Basin', Global Environ. Change 12, 97–104.
Timmermann, A., Oberhuber, J., Bacher, A., Esch, M., Latif, M., and Roeckner E.: 1999, 'Increased El Niño Frequency in a Climate Model Forced by Future Greenhouse Warming', Nature 398, 694–696.
Townsend, P.: 1962, 'The Meaning of Poverty', British J. of Sociology 13, 210–227.
Turnpenny, J. R., Haxeltine, A., and O'Riordan, T.: 2003, 'A Scoping Study of U.K. UserNeeds for Managing Climate Futures. Part 1 of the Pilot-Phase Interactive Integrated Assess-mentProcess (Aurion Project)', Tyndall Centre Working Paper No. 31, 38 pp. Available at:http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/publications/working_papers/wp31.pdf
van Asselt, M. B. A. and Rijkens-Klomp, N.: 2002, 'A Look in theMirror: Reflection on Participation in Integrated Assessment from a Methodological Perspective', Global Environ. Change 12, 167–184.
Vaughan, D. G. and Spouge, J. R.: 2002, 'Risk Estimation of Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet', Clim. Change 52, 65–91.
Watson, R. T. and the Core Writing Team (eds.): 2001, Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 397 pp.
Woodward, A.: 2002, 'Epidemiology, Environmental Health and Global Change', in Martens, P. and McMichael, A. J. (eds.), Environmental Change, Climate and Health: Issues and Research Methods, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 290–310.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dessai, S., Adger, W.N., Hulme, M. et al. Defining and Experiencing Dangerous Climate Change. Climatic Change 64, 11–25 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024781.48904.45
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024781.48904.45