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Species extinction and the relationship between distribution and abundance

Abstract

Within taxonomic groups, there is almost always a positive relationship between the size of geographic range and the local abundance of species1,2,3,4. This pattern has attracted much interest, and several ecological mechanisms have been proposed as causes of it5. However, these hypotheses do not consider the effect of the extinction of rare species on range-abundance relationships. If both range size and local abundance influence the risk of extinction, species with small ranges might avoid extinction if they have high local abundance, whereas species with low local abundance might avoid extinction if they are widespread; species with both small range and low local abundance should be at high risk. This interaction between range, abundance and extinction should produce negative correlations between range and abundance in groups that have experienced many extinctions. Here I test this idea using Australian marsupials, and I show that although the relationship between range size and local abundance is positive for recently evolved species, it is negative for ancient species. This indicates that positive relationships between range size and abundance may be generated during adaptive radiation, but are then gradually reversed as a result of differential extinction.

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Figure 1
Figure 2: Relationships across species between geographic range size and population density of marsupial species for a, all species other than those placed in the ‘ancient’ category (r = 0.01, n = 67, n.s.), and b, species in the ancient category (r = −0.65, n = 17, P < 0.005).

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Acknowledgements

I thank M. Blows, J. Caley and L. Schwarzkopf for comments; A. Payne for help in compiling data on range size; A. Cockburn for providing facilities at the Division of Botany and Zoology at the Australian National University; and S. Burnett, A. Dennis, M. Evans, A. Horsup, S. Jackson, P.Jarman, L. Leong, R. Martin, A. Melzer, G. Newell, M. Runcie, K. Vernes, P. Winkel, J. Winter and A.Woolnought for unpublished data on population densities. This work was partly supported by a grant from the ARC.

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Johnson, C. Species extinction and the relationship between distribution and abundance. Nature 394, 272–274 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1038/28385

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