Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Review Article
  • Published:

Narrowing the climate information usability gap

Nature Climate Change volume 2, pages 789–794 (2012)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Climate-change-related risks pose serious threats to the management of a wide range of social, economic and ecological systems. Managing these risks requires knowledge-intensive adaptive management and policy-making actively informed by scientific knowledge, especially climate science1. However, potentially useful climate information often goes unused1,2. This suggests a gap between what scientists understand as useful information and what users recognize as usable in their decision-making. We propose a dynamic conceptual model to address this gap and highlight strategies to move information from useful to usable to reduce climate-related risks.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: The conceptual model.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. National Research Council America's Climate Choices: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change (NRC, 2010).

  2. National Research Council Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate — Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support (NRC, 2009).

  3. Rockstrom, J. et al. A safe operating space for humanity. Nature 461, 472–475 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Sarewitz, D. World view: Tomorrow never knows. Nature 463, 24 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  5. Lemos, M. C. & Rood, R. Climate projections and their impact on policy and practice. WIRes. Clim. Change 1, 670–682 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. National Research Council Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results — Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (NRC, 2007).

  7. Engle, N. L. Adaptation to Extreme Droughts in Arizona, Georgia, and South Carolina: Evaluating Adaptive Capacity and Innovative Planning and Management Approaches for States and Their Community Water Systems PhD thesis, Univ. of Michigan (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  8. Kirchhoff, C. J. Integrating Science and Policy: Climate Change Assessments and Water Resources Management PhD thesis, Univ. Michigan (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Stokes, D. E. Pasteur's Quadrant: Basic Science And Technological Innovation (Brookings Institution, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  10. Dilling, L. & Lemos, M. C. Creating usable science: Opportunities and constraints for climate knowledge use and their implications for science policy. Global Environ. Change 21, 680–689 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Lemos, M. C. & Morehouse, B. The co-production of science and policy in integrated climate assessments. Global Environ. Change 15, 57–68 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Cash, D. W., Borck, J. C. & Patt, A. G. Countering the loading-dock approach to linking science and decision making. Comparative analysis of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasting systems. Sci. Technol. Hum. Val. 31, 465–494 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. McNie, E. C. Reconciling the supply of scientific information with user demands: An analysis of the problem and review of the literature. Environ. Sci.Policy 10, 17–38 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  14. Jasanoff, S. & Wynne, B. in Human Choice and Climate Change: The Societal Framework Vol. 1 (eds Rayner, S. & Malone, E. L) 1–88 (Batelle, 1998).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Buizer, J., Jacobs, K. & Cash, D. Making short-term climate forecasts useful: Linking science and Action. Proc.Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900518107 (2010).

  16. Jacobs, K. et al. Linking knowledge with action in the pursuit of sustainable water-resources management. Proc.Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0813125107 (2010).

  17. Van Kerkhoff, L. & Lebel, L. linking knowledge and action for sustainable development. Annu. Rev. Env. Resour. 31, 445–477 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Feldman, D. L. & Ingram, H. M. Making science useful to decision makers: Climate Forecasts, water management and knowledge networks. Weather Clim. Soc. 1, 9–21 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Lowrey, J., Ray, A. & Webb, R. Factors influencing the use of climate information by Colorado municipal water managers. Climate Res. 40, 103–119 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Weber, E. U. Experience-based and description-based perceptions of long-term risk: Why global warming does not scare us (yet). Climatic Change 77, 103–120 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Patt, A. & Gwata, C. Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: Examining constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environ. Change 12, 185–195 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Rice, J. L., Woodhouse, C. A. & Lukas, J. L. Science and decision making: Water management and tree-ring data in the western United States. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 45, 1248–1259 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Callahan, B., Miles, E. & Fluharty, D. Policy implications of climate forecasts for water resources management in the Pacific Northwest. Policy Sci. 32, 269–293 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Corringham, T. W., Westerling, A. L. & Morehouse, B. J. Exploring use of climate information in wildland fire management: A decision calendar study. J. Forest. 106, 71–77 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Pulwarty, R. S. & Redmond, K. T. Climate and salmon restoration in the Columbia River Basin: The role and usability of seasonal forecasts. B. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78, 381–396 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Cash, D. W. et al. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 8086–8091 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  27. Jacobs, K., Garfin, G. & Lenart, M. More than just talk: Connecting science and decision making. Environment 47, 6–21 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Meinke, H. et al. Adaptation science for agriculture and natural resource management— urgency and theoretical basis. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 1, 69–76 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Mearns, L. O. The drama of uncertainty. Climatic Change 100, 77–85 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Meyer, R. The public values failures of climate science in the US. Minerva 49, 47–70 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Adger, W. N., Huq, S., Brown, K., Conway, D. & Hulme, M. Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog. Dev. Studies 3, 179–195 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Changnon, S. A. & Kunkel, K. E. Rapidly expanding uses of climate data and information in agriculture and water resources: Causes and characteristics of new applications. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 80, 821–830 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Pagano, T. C., Hartmann, H. C. & Sorooshian, S. Factors affecting seasonal forecast use in Arizona water management: A case study of the 1997–98 El Niño. Clim. Res. 21, 259–269 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Stern, P. & Easterling, W. E. Making Climate Forecasts Matter (National Academy, 1999).

    Google Scholar 

  35. Wilbanks, T. & Kates, R. W. Global change in local places: How scale matters. Climatic Change 43, 601–628 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Changnon, S. A. & Vonnahme, D. R. Impact of spring 2000 drought forecasts on Midwestern water management. J. Water Resour. Plan. Manag. 129, 18–25 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Orlove, B. S., Broad, K. & Petty, A. M. Factors that influence the use of climate forecasts — Evidence from the 1997/98 El Niño event in Peru. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 85, 1735–1743 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Power, S., Sadler, B. & Nicholls, N. The influence of climate science on water management in western Australia: Lessons for climate scientists. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 86, 839–844 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F. & November, D. P. L. Climate-change scenarios for water planning studies: Pilot applications in the Pacific Northwest. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1513–1518 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Lemos, M. C., Finan, T., Fox, R., Nelson, D. & Tucker, J. The Use of seasonal climate forecasting in policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil. Climatic Change 55, 479–507 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Pagano, T. C., Hartmann, H. C. & Sorooshian, S. Using climate forecasts for water management. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 37, 1139–1153 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Yarnal, B., Heasley, A. L., O'Connor, R. E., Dow, K. & Jocoy, C. L. The potential use of climate forecasts by community water system managers. Land Use Water Resour. Res. 6, 1–38 (2006).

    Google Scholar 

  43. Rayner, S., Lach, D. & Ingram, H. Weather forecasts are for wimps: Why water resource managers do not use climate forecasts. Climatic Change 69, 197–227 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Archer, E. R. M. Identifying underserved end-user groups in the provision of climate information. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1525–1532 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Ingram, K. T., Roncoli, C. & Kirshen, P. H. Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study. Agr. Syst. 74, 331–349 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Meinke, H. et al. Actionable climate knowledge: From analysis to synthesis. Climate Res. 33, 101–110 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Nelson, R. A., Holzworth, D. P., Hammer, G. L. & Hayman, P. T. Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software. Agr. Syst. 74, 393–414 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Roncoli, C. Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers' responses to climate predictions. Climate Res. 33, 81–99 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Roncoli, C. et al. From accessing to assessing forecasts: An end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa). Climatic Change 92, 433–460 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Ziervogel, G. & Calder, R. Climate variability and rural livelihoods: Assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts. Area 35, 403–417 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Lemos, M. C. & Dilling, L. Equity in forecasting climate: Can science save the world's poor? Sci. Publ. Pol. 34 (2007).

  52. Van Kerkhoff, L. & Szlezák, N. A. The role of innovative global institutions in linking knowledge and action Proc.Natl Acad. Sci. USA http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900541107 (2010).

  53. Morss, R., Wilhelmi, O., Downton, M. & Gruntfest, E. Flood risk, uncertainty and scientific information for decision making: Lessons from an interdisciplinary project. Bull. Am. Meteotol. Soc. 86, 1593–1601 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Beller-Simms, N. et al. Decision-Support Experiments and Evaluations Using Seasonal to Interannual Forecasts and Observational Data: A Focus on Water Resources (United States Climate Change Science Program, 2008).

    Google Scholar 

  55. Glantz, M. H. Consequences and responsibilities in drought forecasting: The Case of Yakima, 1977. Water Resour. Res. 18, 3–13 (1982).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Lemos, M. C. What influences innovation adoption by water managers? Climate information use in Brazil and the US. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 44, 1388–1396 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Tarhule, A. & Lamb, P. J. Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, dissemination, and use. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84, 1741–1759 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Broad, K., Pfaff, A. S. P. & Glantz, M. H. Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: Policy implications from the peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997–98. Climatic Change 54, 415–438 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Carbone, G. J. & Dow, K. Water resources and drought forecasts in South Carolina. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 41, 145–155 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. O'Connor, R. E., Yarnal, B., Dow, K., Jocoy, C. L. & Carbonne, G. J. Feeling at risk matters: Water managers and the decision to use forecasts. Risk Anal. 5, 1265–1275 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Ropelewski, C. F. & Lyon, B. in Global Climate: Current Research And Uncertainties In The Climate System (eds Rodó, X. & Comín, F. A) Ch. 4, 41–54 (Springer, 2003).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  62. Hedger, M., Connell, R. & Bramwell, P. Bridging the gap: Empowering decision-making for adaptation through the UK Climate Impacts Programme. Clim. Policy 6, 201–215 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Ray, A. J. et al. Applications of monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. J. Climate 20, 1608–1627 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  64. Changnon, S. A. Changing uses of climate predictions in agriculture: Implications for prediction research, providers, and users. Weather Forecast 19, 606–613 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  65. Cobon, D., Bell, K., Park, J. & Keogh, D. Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland. Rangeland J. 30, 361–374 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  66. White, D. D. et al. Credibility, salience, and legitimacy of boundary objects: Water managers' assessment of a simulation model in an immersive decision theater. Sci. Publ. Policy 37, 219–232 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  67. Nonaka, I. A dynamic theory of organizational knowledge creation. Organ. Sci. 5, 14–37 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  68. Lemos, M. C. A Tale of two policies: The politics of seasonal climate forecast use in Ceará, Brazil. Policy Sci. 32, 101–123 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Marx, S. M. et al. Communication and mental processes: Experiential and analytic processing of uncertain climate information. Global Environ. Change 17, 47–58 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Hartmann, H. C., Pagano, T. C., Sorooshian, S. & Bales, R. Confidence builders: Evaluating seasonal climate forecasts from user perspectives. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 8, 683–698 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Guston, D. H. Boundary organizations in environmental policy and science: An introduction. Sci. Technol. Hum. Val. 26, 399–408 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Sarewitz, D. & Pielke, R. A. Jr The neglected heart of science policy: Reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10, 5–16 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  73. Beyer, J. M. & Trice, H. M. The utilization process — a conceptual framework and synthesis of empirical findings. Admin. Sci. Quart. 27, 591–622 (1982).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  74. Lundvall, B. A., Johnson, B., Andersen, E. S. & Dalum, B. National systems of production, innovation and competence building. Res. Policy 31, 213–231 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Kline, S. J. & Rosenberg, N. in The Positive Sum Strategy: Harnessing Technology for Economic Growth (ed Rosenberg, N. & Landau, R.) 275–305 (National Academy, 1986).

    Google Scholar 

  76. Prahalad, C. K. & Ramaswamy, V. Co-creation experiences: The next practice in value creation. J. Interact. Mark. 18, 5–14 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Taylor, R. S. Value-added processes in the information life-cycle. J. Am. Soc. Inf. Sci. 33, 341–346 (1982).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  78. Von Hippel, E. & Katz, R. Shifting innovation to users via toolkits. Manage. Sci. 48, 821–833 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Department of Primary Industries DPI Services to farm foresters (2011); available via http://go.nature.com/1IEZUO

  80. Goddard, L. et al. Providing seasonal-to-interannual climate information for risk management and decision-making. Procedia Environ. Sci. 1, 81–101 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan, 440 Church Street, Ann Arbor, 48109, Michigan, United States

    Maria Carmen Lemos, Christine J. Kirchhoff & Vijay Ramprasad

Authors
  1. Maria Carmen Lemos
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christine J. Kirchhoff
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Vijay Ramprasad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

All authors contributed extensively to the work presented in this paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Maria Carmen Lemos.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 231 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Lemos, M., Kirchhoff, C. & Ramprasad, V. Narrowing the climate information usability gap. Nature Clim Change 2, 789–794 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1614

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1614

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing Anthropocene

Sign up for the Nature Briefing: Anthropocene newsletter — what matters in anthropocene research, free to your inbox weekly.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing: Anthropocene