Abstract
The article investigates the relationship between ethnic diversity and social trust at both the national and local level. As we are particularly concerned with how the rise of new ethnic groups affects trust, the investigation takes place within a European context in which ethnic diversity today is primarily related to immigration from non-western countries. The data originate primarily from the World Value Study (WVS) and the first and second round of the European Social Survey. In contrast to some studies, but consistent with others, we find no general relationships between ethnic diversity, measured in terms of the size of non-western immigrants, and trust either at the country or local level after having checked for other possible sources of influence. There are, furthermore, no indications of trust being influenced by the rise of new ethnic groups or a multiethnic society. All told, ethnic diversity measured in terms of the size of non-western immigrants does not appear to be associated with lower levels of trust in Europe. It may be true in some areas and some countries, but it is not a general phenomenon and problem.
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Notes
It was not until the mid-1990s that steps were taken to improve the comparability of the statistics on migration (Lemaitre and Thoreau, 2006). Since 2000, it has been possible to identify foreign and foreign-born residents for virtually all OECD countries. The growing number of illegal immigrants is, however, not covered in the statistics.
Statistics on the foreign-born population includes both citizens and non-citizens, which, owing to different naturalization practices in the countries, gives the most accurate picture of the immigrant population. Unfortunately descendants of immigrants are not included because only in a few countries are descendants registered officially. The variable for non-western immigrants therefore underestimates the actual proportion of ethnic minorities. This has, however, little effect on the distribution of non-western immigrants between the countries.
Of course Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and some other small European states (Andorra, Liechtenstein and so on) outside EU25 belong to the category of western countries. This has, however, little practical significance, mostly in terms of Norwegian immigrants to Denmark and in particular to Sweden, and we have been able to correct for that.
The intervals are constructed by multiplying the standard error by 1.4. This method assures that if two countries do not have overlapping intervals, they will have different mean trust in the population at a 0.05 significance level (Goldstein 1995, pp. 36–37).
In the different regression models we also study scatter plots of partial regression coefficients to look for influential cases, outliers, non-linear effects and so on. In a few cases at the country level this check becomes very important.
Some of the tested country-level variables will, in a model together with the variable for good governance, obtain a significance level of around 0.05. This applies both to the variable for percentage of non-western immigrants and to the variable for a Protestant country, but a thorough investigation of these effects shows that it is really a Nordic-country effect, which is behind just as was seen in the bivariate analysis. Thus, for instance, the inclusion of a dummy variable for Nordic countries in the statistical model will explain a large part of these effects and leave them clearly insignificant.
For technical reasons, Spain cannot be shown in the figure, because the influx of foreign-born persons into Spain has increased sevenfold. However, this does not influence the result.
This appears in the country-specific reports that can be downloaded from the ESS homepage: http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/.
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Appendices
Appendix A
List of variables
Dependent variables
Social trust (one item). ‘Most people can be trusted’ or ‘You can’t be too careful’ (scale from 0–10).
0=You can’t be too careful; 1=Most people can be trusted.
Social trust (index measured as a mean of two items; the one above and the following) ‘Do you think that most people would try to take advantage of you if they got the chance, or would they try to be fair?’
0=Most people would try to take advantage of me. 10=Most people would try to be fair.
Independent variables at the country level
Non-western immigrants. See Appendix B.
Frac. ethnic. Ethnic fractionalization (from Alesina et al, 2003).
Frac. lang. Linguistic fractionalization (from Alesina et al, 2003).
Frac. rel. Religious fractionalization (from Alesina et al, 2003).
Good governance. Sum index based on five variables from the World Bank Governance Database concerning voice and accountability, political stability/no violence, government effectiveness, rule of law and control of corruption (World Bank, 2004) (http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/index.asp). See also Kaufmann et al (2006).
National Wealth (GDP per capita, US Dollars). International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2008 (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/weodata/index.aspx).
Income equality (Gini index). World Bank. World Development Indicators 2007 (except for Iceland: Statistics Iceland, Weekly Web Release, 3 February 2005).
Protestantism defined as dominant Protestant country or mixed Protestant-Catholic country (Finland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Estonia).
Independent variables at the individual level
Variables with no explanation of coding are dummy variables where ‘1’ is indicating the category mentioned and ‘0’ is the reference category.
Gender.1=Male; 2=Female.
Age. In years or tens of years.
Education level. ‘What is the highest level of education you have received?’ Ordinary scale from 0 to 6.
0=No completed primary education; 1=Primary or first stage of secondary; 2=Lower secondary or second stage of secondary; 3=Upper secondary; 4=Post-secondary, non-tertiary; 5=First stage of tertiary; 6=Second stage of tertiary.
In education. ‘Which of these descriptions applies to what you have been doing the last 7 days?’ In education.
Ethnic minority
The identification is based on five questions: (1) ‘Were you born in (country)?’ (2) ‘In which country were you born?’ (3) ‘Was your father born in (country)?’ (4) ‘Was your mother born in (country)?’ (5) ‘In which country was your mother born?’ Belonging to an ethnic minority are: (1) those born outside EU 25, the Nordic countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San Marino, Switzerland and the Vatican State and whose parents were not born in these countries; and (2) the descendants whose mother was born outside the above-mentioned countries.
Respondent's own estimate of number of people belonging to ethnic minority groups in local area
‘How would you describe the area where you currently live?’ 1=An area where almost nobody is of a different race or ethnic group from most (country) people; 2=Some people are of a different race or ethnic group from most (country) people; 3=Many people are of a different race or ethnic group.
Victim of assault or burglary
‘Have you or a member of your household been the victim of a burglary or assault in the last five years?’
1=No; 2=Yes (transposed in comparison with original variable).
Unemployed, looking for a work. ‘Which of these descriptions applies to what you have been doing the last 7 days?’ ‘Unemployed looking for a job’.
Unemployed, not looking for work. ‘Which of these descriptions applies to what you have been doing the last 7 days?’ ‘Unemployed not looking for a job’.
Permanently disabled or sick
‘Which of these descriptions applies to what you have been doing the last 7 days?’ ‘Permanently sick or disabled’.
Respondent's health. ‘How is your health in general? Would you say it is …’ 1=Very bad; 2=Bad; 3=Fair; 4=Good; 5=Very good.
Respondent's financial situation
‘Which of the descriptions on this card comes closest to how you feel about your current household income?’
1=Living comfortably on present income; 2=Coping on present income; 3=Difficult on present income; 4=Very difficult on present income.
Respondent's income
Low income defined as below half the median income of country.
How often meet with friends etc
‘How often do you meet socially with friends, relatives or colleagues?’
1=Never; 2=Less than once a month; 3=Once a month; 4=Several times monthly; 5=Once a week; 6=Several times weekly.
Respondent is able to borrow money
‘If for some reason you were in serious financial difficulties and had to borrow money to make ends meet, how difficult or easy would that be?’
1=Very difficult; 2=Quite difficult; 3=Neither easy nor difficult; 4=Quite easy; 5=Very easy.
Participation in organizations
Index constructed from a series of variables concerning participation and voluntary work in different organizations – sport clubs, cultural organization, trade union and so on.
0=No participation and no voluntary work; 1=Participation, but no voluntary work; 2=Voluntary work.
Internal political efficacy
Index based on three variables concerning: ‘How often does politics seem so complicated that you can’t really understand what is going on?’; ‘Do you think that you could take an active role in a group involved with political issues?’; ‘How difficult or easy do you find it to make your mind up about political issues?’ (values from 1 to 5).
External political efficacy
Index based on two variables concerning: ‘Do you think that politicians in general care what people like you think?’; ‘Would you say that politicians are just interested in getting people's votes rather than in people's opinions?’ (values from 1 to 5).
Appendix B
See Table B1.
Appendix C
See Table C1.
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Lolle, H., Torpe, L. Growing ethnic diversity and social trust in European societies. Comp Eur Polit 9, 191–216 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2009.16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/cep.2009.16