Nationalism and the 2014 Snap Election: The Abe Conundrum

Abstract

The Abe conundrum refers to the resilient popularity of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe despite strong opposition to virtually all of his signature policies on security and energy, and very little enthusiasm for Abenomics, constitutional revision, or his controversial views on history. Examining party pledges, manifestoes, debates, and campaign speeches, it would seem that nationalism was not a significant factor in Japan’s 2014 lower house elections, or at least not embraced as a winning strategy to woo voters. Although nationalism is the talismanic calling card of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and would be inscribed on its coat of arms if it had one, in campaign 2014 it steered clear of nationalist issues like a minefield and won what the media called a “landslide” victory even though it lost four seats and voter turnout was a record low (see Endo and Pekkanen, this volume). Post-election polls showed little enthusiasm for the LDP or Abe’s plans for constitutional revision or security, but that did not stop him from claiming a mandate for this nationalist agenda (Asahi, December 18, 2014; on this bait-and-switch strategy, see Pekkanen, Reed, Scheiner, “Conclusion,” this volume). Here I argue that understanding the role of nationalism in campaign 2014 depends on examining the wider context leading up to the elections that put wind in Abe’s sails (see Pekkanen, Reed, and Smith, this volume, for this context).