Identifying optimal areas for REDD intervention: East Kalimantan, Indonesia as a case study

International discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) as a greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement strategy are ongoing under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the light of these discussions, it behooves countries to be able to determine the relative likelihood of deforestation over a landscape and perform a first order estimation of the potential reduction in GHGs associated with various protection scenarios. This would allow countries to plan their interventions accordingly to maximize carbon benefits, alongside other environmental and socioeconomic benefits, because forest protection programs might be chosen in places where the perceived threat of deforestation is high whereas in reality the threat is low. In this case study, we illustrate a method for creating deforestation threat maps and estimating potential reductions in GHGs from eighteen protected areas in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, that would occur if protection of these areas was well enforced. Results from our analysis indicate that a further 230 720 ha of East Kalimantan's forest area would be lost and approximately 305 million t CO₂ would be emitted from existing protected areas between 2003 and 2013 if the historical rate of deforestation continued unabated. In other words, the emission of 305 million t CO₂ into the atmosphere would be avoided during this period if protection of the existing areas was well enforced. At a price of $4 per ton of CO₂ (approximate price on the Chicago Climate Exchange in August 2008), this represents an estimated gross income stream of about $120 million per year. We also identified additional areas with high carbon stocks under high deforestation threat that would be important to protect if the carbon benefits of avoided deforestation activities are to be maximized in this region.