World-trade web: Topological properties, dynamics, and evolution

Giorgio Fagiolo, Javier Reyes, and Stefano Schiavo
Phys. Rev. E 79, 036115 – Published 27 March 2009

Abstract

This paper studies the statistical properties of the web of import-export relationships among world countries using a weighted-network approach. We analyze how the distributions of the most important network statistics measuring connectivity, assortativity, clustering, and centrality have coevolved over time. We show that all node-statistic distributions and their correlation structure have remained surprisingly stable in the last 20years—and are likely to do so in the future. Conversely, the distribution of (positive) link weights is slowly moving from a log-normal density towards a power law. We also characterize the autoregressive properties of network-statistics dynamics. We find that network-statistics growth rates are well-proxied by fat-tailed densities like the Laplace or the asymmetric exponential power. Finally, we find that all our results are reasonably robust to a few alternative, economically meaningful, weighting schemes.

    • Received 30 July 2008

    DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.79.036115

    ©2009 American Physical Society

    Authors & Affiliations

    Giorgio Fagiolo*

    • Laboratory of Economics and Management, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Piazza Martiri della Libertà 33, I-56127 Pisa, Italy

    Javier Reyes

    • Department of Economics, Sam M. Walton College of Business, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701-1201, USA

    Stefano Schiavo

    • Department of Economics and School of International Studies, University of Trento, Via Inama 5, 38100 Trento, Italy

    • *FAX: +39-050-883343; giorgio.fagiolo@sssup.it
    • jreyes@walton.uark.edu
    • stefano.schiavo@ofce.sciences-po.fr

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    Issue

    Vol. 79, Iss. 3 — March 2009

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