Abstract
Many driven threshold systems display a spectrum of avalanche event sizes, often characterized by power-law scaling. An important problem is to compute probabilities of the largest events (“Black Swans”). We develop a data-driven approach to the problem by transforming to the event index frame, and relating this to Shannon information. For earthquakes, we find the 12-month probability for magnitude earthquakes in California increases from about 30 after the last event, to 40–50 prior to the next one.
- Received 22 August 2011
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.86.021106
©2012 American Physical Society