Time-dependent reliability analysis of the motor hanger for EMU based on stochastic process

Most of the previous work on reliability analysis was based on the traditional reliability theory. The calculated results can only reflect the reliability of components at a specific time, which neglects the uncertainty of load and resistance over time. The purpose of this paper is to develop a time-dependent reliability analysis approach based on stochastic process to deal with the problem and apply it to the structural design of railway vehicle components.

First, the parametric model of motor hanger for electric multiple unit (EMU) is established by ANSYS parametric design language, and its structural stress is analyzed according to relevant standards. The Latin hypercube method is used to analyze the sensitivity of the structure, and the uncertainty parameters (sizes and loads) which have great influence on the structural strength are determined. The D-optimal experimental design is carried out to establish the polynomial response surface function, which characterizes the relationship between uncertainty parameters and structural stress. Second, the Poisson stochastic process is adopted to describe the number of loads acting, and the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the load acting history according to its probability distribution characteristics. The load history is introduced into the response surface function and the uncertainty of other parameters is considered at the same time, and the stress history of the motor hanger is obtained. Finally, the degradation process of structural resistance is described by a Gamma stochastic process, and the time-dependent reliability of the motor hanger is calculated based on the reliability theory.

Time and the uncertainties of parameters have great impact on reliability. The results of reliability decrease with time fluctuation are more reasonable, stable and credible than traditional methods.

In this paper, the proposed method is applied to the structural design of the motor hanger for EMU, which has a good guiding significance for accurately evaluating whether if the design meets the reliability requirements.

The value of this paper is that the method takes both the randomness of load over time and the uncertainty of structural parameters in the design and manufactures process into consideration, and describes the monotonous degradation characteristics of structural resistance. At the same time, the time-dependent reliability of mechanical components is calculated by a response surface method. It not only improves the accuracy of reliability analysis, but also improves the analysis efficiency and solves the problem that the traditional reliability analysis method can only reflect the static reliability of components.