Original Research Papers

A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model

Authors:

Abstract

We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER’MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4–6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.

  • Year: 2005
  • Volume: 57 Issue: 3
  • Page/Article: 464–475
  • DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668
  • Submitted on 2 Apr 2004
  • Accepted on 2 Dec 2004
  • Published on 1 Jan 2005
  • Peer Reviewed