Original Research Papers
A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model
Authors:
- Andrew P. MorseEmail Andrew P. Morse
- Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
- Moshe B. Hoshen
- Renate Hagedorn
- Tim N. Palmer
Abstract
We discuss a novel three-tier hierarchical approach to the validation of an end-to-end seasonal climate forecast system. We present a malaria transmission simulation model (MTSM) driven with output from the DEMETER multi-model seasonal climate predictions, to produce probabilistic hindcasts of malaria prevalence. These prevalence hindcasts are second-tier validated against estimates from the MTSM driven with ERA-40 gridded analyses. The DEMETER’MTSM prevalence hindcasts are shown to be (tier-2) skilful for the one-month lead seasonal predictions as well as for the period covering the seasonal malaria peak with a 4–6 month forecast window for the event prevalence above the median. Interestingly, the tier-2 Brier skill score for the forecast window of the hindcasts starting in February, for the event prevalence above the median, is higher than for either the tier-1 precipitation or temperature forecasts, which were the MTSM driving variables.
- Year: 2005
- Volume: 57 Issue: 3
- Page/Article: 464–475
- DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14668
- Submitted on 2 Apr 2004
- Accepted on 2 Dec 2004
- Published on 1 Jan 2005
- Peer Reviewed