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The issue of global warming and changes in the runoff of Russian rivers

  • Water Resources and the Regime of Water Bodies
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Abstract

Maps of a series of characteristics were calculated and constructed for RF territory, including mean values of changes in runoff depths (evaluated by the main climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) due to greenhouse effect estimated for 2040–2070; root-mean-square deviations from these values; relative errors of the estimates; mean values of changes in the runoff depth for different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions; absolute and relative deviations of these values from their means for scenarios and integration of models. Chronological forecasts of possible changes in the mean runoff values for the rivers of Volga, Northern Dvina, Pechora, Ob, Yenisei, Lena, Yana, Indigirka, Kolyma, and Amur up to 2100 are calculated, and the root-mean-square errors of these characteristics are evaluated for the maximum number of uncertainties in the forecast. The greenhouse effect is shown to be less significant, other factors being the same, for rivers with small drainage basins and rivers with small modulus of flow.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333, Russia

    S. G. Dobrovolski

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Original Russian Text © S.G. Dobrovolski, 2007, published in Vodnye Resursy, 2007, Vol. 34, No. 6, pp. 643–654.

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Dobrovolski, S.G. The issue of global warming and changes in the runoff of Russian rivers. Water Resour 34, 607–618 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807807060012

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S0097807807060012

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