Abstract
Based on the morphostructural zoning scheme of the Caucasus, the block structure reflecting the real fault geometry and the block formation of the region is constructed. Several dozens of numerical experiments are conducted for simulating the dynamics of the block structure and the arising seismicity. The modeling relies on the following principles. It is assumed that the structure is composed of perfectly rigid blocks separated by infinitely thin fault planes. On the fault planes and on the blocks' bottoms, the blocks viscoelastically interact with each other and with the underlying medium. At each time instant, the translational displacements and rotations of the blocks are calculated from the condition of the quasi-static equilibrium of the entire block structure. The earthquakes occur in accordance with the dry friction model at the time instants when within a certain segment of the fault the stress-to-pressure ratio exceeds the given threshold. The modeling yields the synthetic catalog of the Caucasian earthquakes the spatial distribution of which reflects a set of characteristic features of the real seismicity. The similarity is observed in the magnitude–frequency diagrams of the synthetic and real seismicity. The comparison of the positions of the epicenters of the strong synthetic earthquakes with the results of recognizing the highly seismically active areas in the Caucasus demonstrates the presence of such epicenters in a few highly active areas where, according to the observations, strong earthquakes have not occurred to date.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alekseevskaya, M.A., Gabrielov, A.M., Gvishiani, A.D., Gel’fand, I.M., and Rantsman, E.Ya., Morphostructural zoning of mountain regions by formal criteria, in Vychislitel’naya seismologiya, Vyp. 10: Raspoznavanie i spektral’nyi analiz v seismologii (Compuitational Seismology. Vol. 10: Pattern Recognition and Spectral Analysis in Seismology), Keilis-Borok, V.I., Ed., Moscow,1977b, pp. 33–49.
Cisternas, A., Godefroy, P., Gvishiani, A., Gorshkov, A.I., Kosobokov, V., Lambert, M., Ranzman, E., Sallantin, J., Saldano, H., Soloviev, A., and Weber, C., A dual approach to recognition of earthquake prone areas in the Western Alps, Ann. Geophys., 1985, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 249–270.
Gabrielov, A.M., Kossobokov, V.G., and Soloviev, A.A., Interpretation of the block structure of a region based on the block model of the dynamics of the lithosphere, in Matematicheskoe modelirovanie seismotektonicheskikh protsessov v litosfere, orientirovannoe na problemu prognoza zemletryasenii, Vyp. 1 (Mathematical Modeling of Seismotectonic Processes in the Lithosphere for the Problem of Earthquake Prediction), Keilis-Borok, V.I., Ed., Moscow: MITP RAN, 1993, pp. 11–19.
Gasilov, V.L., Prozorov, A.G., and Soloviev, A.A., Local interaction between seismic events of synthetic catalog in the block structure dynamics model, in Sovremennye problemy seismichnosti i dinamiki Zemli, Vychislitel’naya seismologiya, vyp. 28 (Present-Day Problems of Seismicity and Dynamics of the Earth, vol. 28 of Computational Seismology), Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Molchan, G.M., Eds., Moscow: Nauka, 1996, pp. 110–130.
Gorshkov, A.I., Zhidkov, M.P., Rantsman, E.Ya., and Tumarkin, A.G, Morphostructure of Lesser Caucasus and the locations of the earthquakes M = 5.5, Izv. Akad. Nauk SSSR, Fiz. Zemli, 1991, no. 6, pp. 30–38.
Gorshkov, A.I., Raspoznavanie mest sil’nykh zemletryasenii v Al’piisko-Gimalaiskom poyase. Vychislitel’naya seismologiya (Recognition of Probable Locations of Strong Earthquakes in the Alpine-Himalaya Belt. Computational Seismology, vol. 40), Moscow: KRASAND, 2010.
Gvishiani, A.D., Gorshkov, A.I., Rantsman, E.Ya., Cisternas, A., and Soloviev, A.A., Prognozirovanie mest zemletryasenii v regionakh umerennoi seismichnosti (Recognition of Earthquake-Prone Areas in the Regions of Moderate Seismicity), Moscow: Nauka, 1988a.
Gvishiani, A.D., Gorshkov, A.I., Rantsman, E.Ya., Cisternas, A, and Soloviev, A.A., Prognozirovanie mest zemletryasenii v regionakh umerennoi seismichnosti (Forecasting the Locations of the Earthquakes in the Regions with Moderate Seismic Activity), Moscow: Nauka, 1988b.
Ismail-Zadeh, A., Le Mouël, J.-L., Soloviev, A., Tapponnier, P., and Vorovieva, I, Numerical modeling of crustal block-and-fault dynamics, earthquakes and slip rates in the Tibet–Himalayan region, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 2007, vol. 258, nos. 3-4, pp. 465–485.
Panza, G.F., Soloviev, A.A., and Vorobieva, I.A, Numerical modelling of block-structure dynamics: application to the Vrancea region, Pure Appl. Geophys., 1997, vol. 149, pp. 313–336.
Pavlenkova, G.A, Crustal structure of the Caucasus from the Stepnoe–Bakuriani and Volgograd–Nakhichevan DSS profiles (reinterpretation of the primary data), Izv., Phys Solid Earth, 2012, vol. 48, no. 5, pp. 375–384.
Peresan, A., Vorobieva, I., Soloviev, A., and Panza, G.F, Simulation of seismicity in the block-structure model of Italy and its surroundings, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2007, vol. 164, no. 11, pp. 2193–2234.
Philip, H., Cisternas, A., Gvishiani, A., and Gorshkov, A, The Caucasus: an actual example of the initial stages of continental collision, Tectonophysics, 1989, vol. 161, nos. 1/2, pp. 1–21.
Rantsman, E.Ya., Mesta zemletryasenii i morfostruktura gornykh stran (Earthquake Locations and Morphostructure of Uplands), Moscow: Nauka, 1979.
Rantsman, E.Ya., Glasko, M.P., and Gorshkov, A.I, Hierarchy of the present-day block structure of the Indian Shield and its orogenic framework, Dokl. Earth Sci., 1996, vol. 349, no. 5, pp. 839–843.
Reilinger, R., McClusky, S., Vernant, P., Lawrence, S., Ergintav, S., Cakmak, R., Ozener, H., Kadirov, F., Guliev, I., Stepanyan, R., Nadariya, M., Hahubia, G., Mahmoud, S., Sakr, K., ArRajehi, A., et al., GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa–Arabia–Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res., 2006, vol. 111, B05411.
Rezanov, I.A. and Shevchenko, V.I., Stroenie i evolyutsiya zemnoi kory geosinklinalei (Structure and Evolution of the Earth’s Crust of Geosynclines), Moscow: Nedra, 1978.
Sadovskii, M.A. and Pisarenko, V.F., Seismicheskii protsess v blokovoi srede (Seismic Process in a Block Structure), Moscow: Nauka, 1991.
Sobolev, P.O., Soloviev, A.A., and Rotwein, I.M., Modelirovanie litosfery i seismichnosti dlya regiona Blizhnego Vostoka, in Sovremennye problemy seismichnosti i dinamiki Zemli, Vychislitel’naya Seismologiya, vyp. 28 (Present-Day Problems of Seismicity and Dynamics of the Earth, vol. 28 of Computational Seismology), Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Molchan, G.M., Eds., Moscow: Nauka, 1996, pp. 131–147.
Soloviev, A.A., Vorobieva, I.A., and Panza, G.F, Modelling of block-structure dynamics: parametric study for Vrancea, Pure Appl. Geophys., 1999, vol. 156, no. 3, pp. 395–420.
Soloviev, A.A., Vorobieva, I.A., and Panza, G.F, Modelling of block structure dynamics for the Vrancea region: source mechanisms of the synthetic earthquakes, Pure Appl. Geophys., 2000, vol. 157, nos. 1–2, pp. 97–110.
Soloviev, A. and Ismail-Zadeh, A., Models of dynamics of block-and-fault systems, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Soloviev, A.A., Eds., Berlin: Springer, 2003, pp. 71–139.
Soloviev, A.A, Modeling the dynamics of the block and fault systems in seismicity, Tr. Inst. Matem. Mekh. Ural. Otd. Ros. Akad. Nauk, 2011, vol. 17, no. 2, pp. 174–190.
Soloviev, A.A., Novikova, O.V., Gorshkov, A.I., and Piotrovskaya, E.P, Recognition of potential sources of strong earthquakes in the Caucasus region using GIS technologies, Dokl. Earth Sci., 2013, vol. 450, no. 2, pp. 658–660.
Soloviev, Al.A., Gorshkov, A.I., and Soloviev, An.A, Application of the data on the lithospheric magnetic anomalies in the problem of recognizing the earthquake prone areas, Izv., Phys Solid Earth, 2016, vol. 52, no. 6, pp. 803–809.
Ulomov, V.I., Danilova, T.I., Medvedeva, N.S., Polyakova, T.P., and Shumilina, L.S, Assessment of Seismic Hazard in the North Caucasus, Izv., Phys. Solid Earth, 2007, vol. 43, no. 7, pp. 559–572.
Veber, K., Gvishiani, A.D., Gaudefroy, P., Gorshkov, A.I., Kossobokov, V.G., Lambert, S., Rantsman, E.Ya., Sallantain, J., Saldano, A., and Soloviev, A.A., Recognition of the areas of probable occurrence of strong earthquakes. XII. Two approaches to forecasting the location of the probable occurrence of strong earthquakes in West Alps, in Vychislitel’naya seismologiya. Vyp. 18. Teoriya i analiz seismicheskoi informatsii, (Computational seismology. Vol. 18: Theory and Analysis of Seismic Information), Keilis-Borok, V.I., Ed., Moscow, 1985, pp. 139–154.
Vernant, Ph., Nilforoushan, F., Hatzfeld, D., Abbassi, M.R., Vigny, C., Masson, F., Nankali, H., Martinod, J., Ashtiani, A., Bayer, R., Tavakoli, F., and Chery, J, Present-day crustal deformation and plate kinematics in the Middle East constrained by GPS measurements in Iran and Northern Oman, Geophys. J. Int., 2004, vol. 157, no. 1, pp. 381–398.
Vorobieva, I.A., Gorshkov, A.I., and Solov’ev, A.A., Modeling the block structure dynamics and seismicity of Western Alps, in Problemy dinamiki i seismichnosti Zemli. Vychislitel’naya seismologiya, vyp. 31 (Problems of Dynamics and Seismicity of the Earth, vol. 31 of Computational Seismology), Keilis-Borok, V.I. and Molchan, G.M., Eds., Moscow: GEOS, 2000, pp. 154–169.
Vorobieva, I., Mandal, P., and Gorshkov, A, Numerical modeling of seismicity and geodynamics of the Kachchh rift zone, Gujarat, India, Tectonophysics, 2014, vol. 634, pp. 31–43.
Wells, D.L. and Coppersmith, K.J, New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 1994, vol. 84, no. 4, pp. 974–1002.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Original Russian Text © A.A. Soloviev, A.I. Gorshkov, 2017, published in Fizika Zemli, 2017, No. 3, pp. 3–13.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Soloviev, A.A., Gorshkov, A.I. Modeling the dynamics of the block structure and seismicity of the Caucasus. Izv., Phys. Solid Earth 53, 321–331 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351317030120
Received:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351317030120