Biased Lung Cancer Risk Perceptions: Smokers are Misinformed

References

Adams, S., N. Bose, A. Rustichini (2014), How Different are Smokers? An Analysis Based on Personal Finances. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 107 (A): 40–50.10.1016/j.jebo.2014.08.003Search in Google Scholar

American Cancer Society (2017), Lifetime Risk of Developing or Dying from Cancer. Updated 2014-01-10. Retrieved on 2017-09-23: http://www.cancer.org/Cancer/CancerBasics/lifetime-probability-of-developing-or-dying-from-cancer.Search in Google Scholar

American Lung Association (2017), Lung Cancer Fact Sheet. Retrieved on 2017-09-23: http://www.lung.org/lung-disease/lung-cancer/resources/facts-figures/lung-cancer-fact-sheet.html#Survival_Rates.Search in Google Scholar

Anger, S., M. Kvasnicka, T. Siedler (2011), One Last Puff? Public Smoking Bans and Smoking Behavior. Journal of Health Economics 30 (3): 591–601.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2011.03.003Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Ayanian, J.Z., P.D. Cleary (1999), Perceived Risks of Heart Disease and Cancer among Cigarette Smokers. JAMA 281 (11): 1019–1021.10.1001/jama.281.11.1019Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Bach, P., M.W. Kattan, M.D. Thornquist, M.G. Kris, R.C. Tate, M.J. Barnett, L.J. Hsieh, C.B. Begg (2003), Variations in Lung Cancer Risk among Smokers. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 95 (6): 470–478.10.1093/jnci/95.6.470Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Becker, G.S., K.M. Murphy (1988), A Theory of Rational Addiction. Journal of Political Economy 96 (4): 675–700.10.1086/261558Search in Google Scholar

Bénabou, R., J. Tirole (2002), Self-Confidence and Personal Motivation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 117 (3): 871–915.10.1162/003355302760193913Search in Google Scholar

Benjamin, D.K., W.R. Dougan, D. Buschena (2001), Individuals’ Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II–New Evidence. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 22 (1): 35–57.10.1023/A:1011101506833Search in Google Scholar

Binswanger, J., M. Salm (2017), Does Everyone Use Probabilities? The Role of Cognitive Skills. European Economic Review 98: 73–85.10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.06.009Search in Google Scholar

Bracha, A., D.J. Brown (2012), Affective Decision Making: A Theory of Optimism Bias. Games and Economic Behavior 75 (1): 67–80.10.1016/j.geb.2011.11.004Search in Google Scholar

Butler, C.A., K.M. Darragh, G.P. Currie, W.J.A. Anderson (2006), Variation in Lung Cancer Survival Rates between Countries: Do Differences in Data Reporting Contribute? Respiratory Medicine 100 (9): 1642–1646.10.1016/j.rmed.2005.12.006Search in Google Scholar PubMed

CDC (2017), What are the Risk Factors for Lung Cancer? Retrieved on 2017-09-22: http://www.cdc.gov/cancer/lung/basic_info/risk_factors.htm,Search in Google Scholar

Coleman, M.P., D. Forman, H. Bryant, J. Butler, B. Rachet, C. Maringe, U. Nur, E. Tracey, M. Coory, J. Hatcher, C.E. McGahan, D. Turner, L. Marrett, M.L. Gjerstorff, T.B. Johannesen, J. Adolfsson, M. Lambe, G. Lawrence, D. Meechan, E.J. Morris, R. Middleton, J. Steward, M.A. Richards (2011), Cancer Survival in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, and the UK, 1995–2007 (The International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership): An Analysis of Population-Based Cancer Registry Data. The Lancet 377 (9760): 127–138.10.1016/S0140-6736(10)62231-3Search in Google Scholar

Couraud, S., G. Zalcman, B. Milleron, F. Morin, P.-J. Souquet (2012), Lung Cancer in Never Smokers–A Review. European Journal of Cancer 48 (9): 1299–1311.10.1016/j.ejca.2012.03.007Search in Google Scholar

Cowan, Benjamin W. (2018), Sources of Bias in Teenagers’ College Expectations. Social Science Quarterly 99 (1): 136–153.10.1111/ssqu.12354Search in Google Scholar

Crost, B., D.I. Rees (2013), The Minimum Legal Drinking Age and Marijuana Use: New Estimates from the NLSY97. Journal of Health Economics 32 (2): 474–476.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.09.008Search in Google Scholar PubMed

DeCicca, P., D. Kenkel, A. Mathios (2002), Putting Out the Fires: Will Higher Taxes Reduce the Onset of Youth Smoking?. Journal of Political Economy 110 (1): 144–169.10.1086/324386Search in Google Scholar

DeCicca, P., D. Kenkel, A. Mathios (2008), Cigarette Taxes and the Transition from Youth to Adult Smoking: Smoking Initiation, Cessation, and Participation. Journal of Health Economics 27 (4): 904–917.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2008.02.008Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Dionne, G., C. Fluet, D. Desjardins (2007), Predicted Risk Perception and Risk-Taking Behavior: The Case of Impaired Driving. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 35 (3): 237–264.10.1007/s11166-007-9023-8Search in Google Scholar

Dohmen, T., A. Falk, D. Huffman, U. Sunde, J. Schupp, G.G. Wagner (2011), Individual Risk Attitudes: Measurement, Determinants, and Behavioral Consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association 9 (3): 522–550.10.1111/j.1542-4774.2011.01015.xSearch in Google Scholar

Dragone, D., N.R. Ziebarth. (2017), Non-Separable Time Preferences, Novelty Consumption, and Body Weight: Theory and Evidence from the East German Transition to Capitalism. Journal of Health Economics 51: 41–65.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2016.11.002Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Fenelon, A., S.H. Preston (2012), Estimating Smoking-Attributable Mortality in the United States. Demography 49 (3): 797–818.10.1007/s13524-012-0108-xSearch in Google Scholar PubMed

Gallup (2007), Smoking Rates around the World – How Do Americans Compare? Retrieved on 2014-04-27: http://www.gallup.com/poll/28432/smoking-rates-around-world-how-americans-compare.aspx.Search in Google Scholar

Gerkin, S., R. Khaddaria (2012), Perceptions of Health Risk and Smoking Decisions of Young People. Health Economic 21 (7): 1099–1050.10.1002/hec.1760Search in Google Scholar

Godtfredsen, N.S., E. Prescott, M. Osler (2005), Effect of Smoking Reduction on Lung Cancer Risk. Jama 294 (12): 1505–1510.10.1001/jama.294.12.1505Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Gollust, S.E., S.A. Schroeder, K.E. Warner (2008), Helping Smokers Quit: Understanding the Barriers to Utilization of Smoking Cessation Services. Milbank Quaterly 86 (4): 601–627.10.1111/j.1468-0009.2008.00536.xSearch in Google Scholar

Hitchman, S.C., G.T. Fong (2011), Gender Empowerment and Female-to-Male Smoking Prevalence Ratios. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2011 (89): 195–202.10.2471/BLT.10.079905Search in Google Scholar

Janssen, F., L.J.G. Wissen, A.E. Kunst (2013), Including the Smoking Epidemic in Internationally Coherent Mortality Projections. Demography 50 (4): 1341–1362.10.1007/s13524-012-0185-xSearch in Google Scholar PubMed

Jones, S.L., J.C. Yeoman (2012), Bias in Estimating the Systematic Risk of Extreme Performers: Implications for Financial Analysis, the Leverage Effect, and Long-Run Reversals. Journal of Corporate Finance 18 (1): 1–21-.10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2011.09.007Search in Google Scholar

Kang, M.-I., S. Ikeda (2014), Time Discounting and Smoking Behavior: Evidence from a Panel Survey. Health Economics 23 (12): 1099–1050.10.1002/hec.2998Search in Google Scholar

Kenkel, D.S. (1991), Health Behavior, Health Knowledge, and Schooling. Journal of Political Economy 99 (2): 287–305.10.1086/261751Search in Google Scholar

Kenkel, D.S. (2000), Prevention. 1675–1720 in: A. J. Culyer & J. P. Newhouse (ed.), Handbook of Health Economics. Elsevier, 1(B), Chapter 31.10.1016/S1574-0064(00)80044-XSearch in Google Scholar

Khakwani, A., A.L. Rich, H.A. Powell, L.J. Tata, R.A. Stanley, D.R. Baldwin, J.P. Duffy, R.B. Hubbard (2013), Lung Cancer Survival in England: Trends in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Survival over the Duration of the National Lung Cancer Audit. British Journal of Cancer 109 (8): 2058–2065.10.1038/bjc.2013.572Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Khwaja, A., D. Silverman, F. Sloan (2007a), Time Preference, Time Discounting, and Smoking Decisions. Journal of Health Economics 26 (5): 927–949.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2007.02.004Search in Google Scholar

Khwaja, A., D. Silverman, F. Sloan, Y. Wang (2009), Are Mature Smokers Misinformed? Journal of Health Economics 28 (2): 385–397.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2008.12.004Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Khwaja, A., F. Sloan, S. Chung (2007b), The Relationship between Individual Expectations and Behaviors: Mortality Expectations and Smoking Decisions. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 35 (2): 179–201.10.1007/s11166-007-9019-4Search in Google Scholar

Lampert, T., E. von der Lippe, S. Müters (2013), Verbreitung des Rauchens in der Erwachsenenbevölkerung in Deutschland. Bundesgesundheitsblatt – Gesundheitsforschung – Gesundheitsschutz 56 (5–6): 802–808.10.1007/s00103-013-1698-1Search in Google Scholar

Leventhal, H., K. Glynn, R. Fleming (1987), Is the Smoking Decision an ‘Informed Choice’? Effect of Smoking Risk Factors on Smoking Beliefs. Jama 257 (24): 3373–3376.10.1001/jama.1987.03390240079027Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Lichtenstein, S., P. Slovic, B. Fischhoff, M. Layman, B. Combs (1978), Judged Frequency of Lethal Events. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 4 (6): 551–578.10.1037/0278-7393.4.6.551Search in Google Scholar

Lillard, D.R., E. Molloy, A. Sfekas (2013), Smoking Initiation and the Iron Law of Demand. Journal of Health Economics 32 (1): 114–127.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2012.08.006Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Lin, W., F. Sloan (2015), Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions of Adult Chinese Men. Journal of Health Economics 39: 60–73.10.1016/j.jhealeco.2014.11.006Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Lipkus, L., J. Shepperd (2009), College Smokers’ Estimates of Their Probabilities of Remaining a Smoker in the near Future. Journal of Health Psychology 14 (4): 547–555.10.1177/1359105309103574Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Loureiro, M.L., A. Sanz-de-Galdeano, D. Vuri (2010), Smoking Habits: Like Father, Like Son, Like Mother, Like Daughter? Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 72 (6): 717–743.10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00603.xSearch in Google Scholar

Lundborg, P. (2007), Smoking, Information Sources, and Risk Perceptions – New Results on Swedish Data. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 34 (3): 217–240.10.1007/s11166-007-9010-0Search in Google Scholar

Lundborg, P., H. Andersson (2008), Perception of Own Death Risk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 34 (1): 67–84.10.1007/s11166-006-9004-3Search in Google Scholar

Malmendier, U., G. Tate (2005), CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment. Journal of Finance 60 (6): 2661–2700.10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00813.xSearch in Google Scholar

National Center for Health Statistics (2014), Health, United States, 2013: With Special Feature on Prescription Drugs. Hyattsville, MD. Retrieved on 2015-04-24: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus.htm.Search in Google Scholar

National Institute for Health (NIH) (2010), NIH Fact Sheet: Cancer. Retrieved on 2015-04-27: http://report.nih.gov/nihfactsheets/viewfactsheet.aspx?csid=75.Search in Google Scholar

OECD (2014), OECD Health Statistics 2014. Retrieved on 2015-05-10: http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/health-data.htm.Search in Google Scholar

Office on Smoking and Health (1979), Smoking and Health: A Report of the Surgeon General: Appendix: Cigarette Smoking in the United States, 1950–1978. United States: Public Health Service. Office of the Assistant Secretary for Health. Retrieved on 2015-04-27: http://profiles.nlm.nih.gov/ps/retrieve/ResourceMetadata/NNBCPH.Search in Google Scholar

Oster, E., I. Shoulson, E.R. Dorsey (2013), Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease. American Economic Review 103 (2): 804–830.10.1257/aer.103.2.804Search in Google Scholar

Pfeifer, C. (2012), A Note on Smoking Behavior and Health Risk Taking. Nordic Journal of Health Economics 1 (2): 135–151.10.5617/njhe.195Search in Google Scholar

Romer, D., P. Jamieson (2001), The Role of Perceived Risk in Starting and Stopping Smoking. in: P. Slovic (ed.), Smoking: Risk, Perception, & Policy. Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications.10.4135/9781452232652.n4Search in Google Scholar

Sandroni, A., F. Squintani (2013), Overconfidence and Asymmetric Information: The Case of Insurance. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 93 (C): 149–165.10.1016/j.jebo.2012.10.015Search in Google Scholar

Schoenbaum, M. (1997), Do Smokers Understand the Mortality Effects of Smoking? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Survey. American Journal of Public Health 87 (5): 755–759.10.2105/AJPH.87.5.755Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Schwardmann, P. (2017), Motivated Health Risk Denial and Preventative Health Care Investments, mimeo. Retrived on 2017-10-5: https://sites.google.com/site/peterschwardmann/.10.2139/ssrn.2970529Search in Google Scholar

Sloan, F.A., L.M. Eldred, T. Guo, Y. Xu (2013), Are People Overoptimistic about the Effects of Heavy Drinking? Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 47 (1): 93–127.10.1007/s11166-013-9172-xSearch in Google Scholar PubMed

Slovic, P. (2001), Cigarette Smokers: Rational Actors or Rational Fools? in: P. Slovic (ed.), Smoking: Risk, Perception, & Policy. Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage Publications.10.4135/9781452232652Search in Google Scholar

Slovic, P., M.L. Finucane, E. Peters, D.G. MacGregor (2004), Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality. Risk Analysis 24 (2): 311–322.10.1111/j.0272-4332.2004.00433.xSearch in Google Scholar

Tekin, E., N. Mocan, L. Liang (2009), Do Adolescents with Emotional or Behavioral Problems Respond to Cigarette Prices? Southern Economic Journal 76 (1): 67–85.10.4284/sej.2009.76.1.67Search in Google Scholar

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) 2014, The Health Consequences of Smoking: 50 Years of Progress. A Report of the Surgeon General. Atlanta, GA: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Office on Smoking and Health.Search in Google Scholar

Villeneuve, P., U. Mao (1994), Lifetime Probability of Developing Lung Cancer, by Smoking Status, Canada. Canadian Journal of Public Health 85 (6): 385–388.Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (1990), Do Smokers Underestimate Risks? Journal of Political Economy 98 (6): 1253–1269.10.1086/261733Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (1991), Age Variations in Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions. Review of Economics and Statistics 73 (4): 577–588.10.2307/2109396Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (1995), Cigarette Taxation and the Social Consequences of Smoking. 51–102 in: J. Poterba (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Chapter 2, NBER Book Series, Cambridge, MIT Press.10.1086/tpe.9.20061827Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (2016), Risk Beliefs and Preferences for E-Cigarettes. American Journal of Health Economics 2 (2): 213–240.10.1162/AJHE_a_00042Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K., J. Hersch (2001), Cigarette Smokers as Job Risk Takers. Review of Economics and Statistics 83 (2): 269–280.10.1162/00346530151143806Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (1992), Smoking: Making the Risky Decision. New York, Oxford University Press.Search in Google Scholar

Viscusi, W.K. (2002), Smoke-Filled Rooms: A Postmortem on the Tobacco Deal. Chicago, University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226857480.001.0001Search in Google Scholar

Wagner, G.G., J.R. Frick, J. Schupp (2007), The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) Evolution, Scope and Enhancements. Journal of Applied Social Science Studies (Schmollers Jahrbuch) 127 (1): 139–169.10.2139/ssrn.1028709Search in Google Scholar

Weinstein, N.D. (1982), Unrealistic Optimism about Susceptibility to Health Problems. Journal of Behavioral Medicine 5 (4): 441–460.10.1007/BF00845372Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Weinstein, N.D. (1989), Optimistic Biases about Personal Risks. Science 246 (4935): 1232–1233.10.1126/science.2686031Search in Google Scholar PubMed

Weinstein, N.D., J.E. Lyon (1999), Mindset, Optimistic Bias about Personal Risk and Health-Protective Behavior. British Journal of Health Psychology 4 (4): 289–300.10.1348/135910799168641Search in Google Scholar

World Health Organization (WHO) (2014), Tobacco Free Initiative (TFI): Cancer. Retrieved on 2014-04-24: http://www.who.int/tobacco/research/cancer/en/.Search in Google Scholar

World Health Organization (WHO) (2015), Cancer. Retrieved on 2015-04-24: http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs297/en/.Search in Google Scholar

Ziebarth, N.R. (2018), Lung Cancer Risk Perception Biases. Preventive Medicine 110: 16–23.10.1016/j.ypmed.2018.01.020Search in Google Scholar PubMed