Thermal Science 2014 Volume 18, Issue 3, Pages: 721-730
https://doi.org/10.2298/TSCI1403721T
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Exploring the impact of reduced hydro capacity and lignite resources on the Macedonian power sector development
Taseska-Gjorgievskaa Verica (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Informatics and Materials, Research Center for Energy, Skopje, R. Macedonia)
Dedinec Aleksandar (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Informatics and Materials, Research Center for Energy, Skopje, R. Macedonia)
Markovska Natasa (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Informatics and Materials, Research Center for Energy, Skopje, R. Macedonia)
Pop-Jordanov Jordan (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Informatics and Materials, Research Center for Energy, Skopje, R. Macedonia)
Kanevce Gligor (Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Informatics and Materials, Research Center for Energy, Skopje, R. Macedonia)
Goldstein Gary (International Resources Group, Washington, D.C., USA)
Pye Steve (International Resources Group, Washington, D.C., USA)
The reference development pathway of the Macedonian energy sector highlights
the important role that lignite and hydro power play in the power sector,
each accounting for 40% of total capacity in 2021. In 2030, this dominance
continues, although hydro has a higher share due to the retirement of some of
the existing lignite plants. Three sensitivity runs of the MARKAL-Macedonia
energy system model have been undertaken to explore the importance of these
technologies to the system, considering that their resource may be reduced
with time: (1) Reducing the availability of lignite from domestic mines by
50% in 2030 (with limited capacity of imports), (2) Removing three large
hydro options, which account for 310 MW in the business-as-usual case, and
(3) Both of the above restrictions. The reduction in lignite availability is
estimated to lead to additional overall system costs of 0.7%, compared to
hydro restrictions at only 0.1%. With both restrictions applied, the
additional costs rise to over 1%, amounting to 348 M€ over the 25 year
planning horizon. In particular, costs are driven up by an increasing
reliance on electricity imports. In all cases, the total electricity
generation decreases, but import increases, which leads to a drop in capacity
requirements. In both, the lignite and the hydro restricted cases, it is
primarily gas-fired generation and imports that “fill the gap”. This
highlights the importance of an increasingly diversified and efficient
supply, which should be promoted through initiatives on renewables, energy
efficiency, and lower carbon emissions.
Keywords: MARKAL energy system modeling, lignite resources, hydro power plants