ANFIS model for the prediction of generated electricity of photovoltaic modules

Mirko Stojčić; Aleksandar Stjepanović; Đorđe Stjepanović

doi:10.31181/dmame1901035s

Authors

Mirko Stojčić University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Doboj, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Aleksandar Stjepanović University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, Doboj, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Đorđe Stjepanović Faculty of Technical Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad, Serbia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31181/dmame1901035s

Keywords:

prediction, ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System), photovoltaic modules, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error)

Abstract

The fact that conventional energy sources are exhaustive and limited are increasingly encouraging research in the field of alternative and renewable energy sources. The electricity generated by solar photovoltaic modules and panels occupies an ever greater percentage in total electricity production, so it is clear that photovoltaic systems are increasingly integrating with the existing electricity network into one system or functioning as autonomous systems. The aim of the research is to create a model based on the principles of the fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks that will perform the task of predicting the maximum energy of photovoltaic modules as accurately as possible. The prediction should facilitate work in planning production and consumption, system management, economic analysis. The most important methods used in the research are modeling and simulation. Input and output variables are selected and in the ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System) model a set of their values is presented. Based on them it comes to the function of dependency. The prediction rating of the created model was performed on a separate data set for testing and a model with the lowest average test error value was selected. The performance of the model was compared with the mathematical model through sensitivity analysis, which led to the conclusion that the ANFIS model gives more accurate results.

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