Salinity variability in the German Bight in relation to climate variability

A relationship between observed variability in large-scale climate and salinity in the GermanBight is sought using a multivariate statistical approach. It is found that on an annual timescale,90% of the observed salinity variability is in-phase and correlated with a lag of several monthsto large-scale air pressure. The statistical model is used to estimate annual salinity anomaliesfrom large-scale air pressure back to 1900. The correlations between estimated and observedsalinities range from r=0.4 to r=0.7, depending on the position. It is shown that advectiveprecipitation is the mechanism that links air pressure and salinity anomalies. Advection ofAtlantic Water has only a minor impact on the annula mean in the examined coastal zone. Ifair pressure data from a climate change experiment is used as predictor, a slight drop of themean salinity level in the range of 0.2 to 0.3 psu is predicted for the near future.