Cover of Never Saw It Coming
Never Saw It Coming Cultural Challenges to Envisioning the Worst
by Karen A. Cerulo
University of Chicago Press, 2006
Cloth: 978-0-226-10032-6 | Paper: 978-0-226-10033-3 | Electronic: 978-0-226-10029-6
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.001.0001

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ABOUT THIS BOOKAUTHOR BIOGRAPHYREVIEWSTABLE OF CONTENTS

ABOUT THIS BOOK

People—especially Americans—are by and large optimists. They're much better at imagining best-case scenarios (I could win the lottery!) than worst-case scenarios (A hurricane could destroy my neighborhood!). This is true not just of their approach to imagining the future, but of their memories as well: people are better able to describe the best moments of their lives than they are the worst.

Though there are psychological reasons for this phenomenon, Karen A.Cerulo, in Never Saw It Coming, considers instead the role of society in fostering this attitude. What kinds of communities develop this pattern of thought, which do not, and what does that say about human ability to evaluate possible outcomes of decisions and events?

Cerulo takes readers to diverse realms of experience, including intimate family relationships, key transitions in our lives, the places we work and play, and the boardrooms of organizations and bureaucracies. Using interviews, surveys, artistic and fictional accounts, media reports, historical data, and official records, she illuminates one of the most common, yet least studied, of human traits—a blatant disregard for worst-case scenarios. Never Saw It Coming, therefore, will be crucial to anyone who wants to understand human attempts to picture or plan the future.

“In Never Saw It Coming, Karen Cerulo argues that in American society there is a ‘positive symmetry,’ a tendency to focus on and exaggerate the best, the winner, the most optimistic outcome and outlook. Thus, the conceptions of the worst are underdeveloped and elided. Naturally, as she masterfully outlines, there are dramatic consequences to this characterological inability to imagine and prepare for the worst, as the failure to heed memos leading up to both the 9/11 and NASA Challenger disasters, for instance, so painfully reminded us.”--Robin Wagner-Pacifici, Swarthmore College

“Katrina, 9/11, and the War in Iraq—all demonstrate the costliness of failing to anticipate worst-case scenarios. Never Saw It Coming explains why it is so hard to do so: adaptive behavior hard-wired into human cognition is complemented and reinforced by cultural practices, which are in turn institutionalized in the rules and structures of formal organizations. But Karen Cerulo doesn’t just diagnose the problem; she uses case studies of settings in which people effectively anticipate and deal with potential disaster to describe structural solutions to the chronic dilemmas she describes so well. Never Saw It Coming is a powerful contribution to the emerging fields of cognitive and moral sociology.”--Paul DiMaggio, Princeton University

AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Karen A. Cerulo is professor of sociology at Rutgers University and the author of several books, including Identity Designs: The Sights and Sounds of a Nation, winner of the American Sociological Association Culture Section’s Best Book Award, and Deciphering Violence: The Cognitive Structure of Right and Wrong.

REVIEWS

“Katrina, 9/11, and the War in Iraq—all demonstrate the costliness of failing to anticipate worst-case scenarios. Never Saw It Coming explains why it is so hard to do so: adaptive behavior hard-wired into human cognition is complemented and reinforced by cultural practices, which are in turn institutionalized in the rules and structures of formal organizations. But Karen Cerulo doesn’t just diagnose the problem; she uses case studies of settings in which people effectively anticipate and deal with potential disaster to describe structural solutions to the chronic dilemmas she describes so well. Never Saw It Coming is a powerful contribution to the emerging fields of cognitive and moral sociology.”--Paul DiMaggio, Princeton University

— Paul DiMaggio

“In Never Saw It Coming, Karen Cerulo argues that in American society there is a ‘positive symmetry,’ a tendency to focus on and exaggerate the best, the winner, the most optimistic outcome and outlook. Thus, the conceptions of the worst are underdeveloped and elided. Naturally, as she masterfully outlines, there are dramatic consequences to this characterological inability to imagine and prepare for the worst, as the failure to heed memos leading up to both the 9/11 and NASA Challenger disasters, for instance, so painfully reminded us.”--Robin Wagner-Pacifici, Swarthmore College

— Robin Wagner-Pacifici

"Everybody respects a good attitude, but no amount of magical thinking will make the universe obey our wishes. . . . We're addicted to positive thinking, Oprah. And The Secret has sent the whole world on a bender. You and maybe you alone, can rein it in. . . . Why not invite Cerulo on your show? What's the worse that could happen?"
— John Gravois, Slate

"Never Saw It Coming is a work of disciplined imagination at its best. Lucid and persuasive, written with charm and humor, it is a model of how to think about the relationships among culture, cognition, and social structure."
— Robert Zussman, Contemporary Sociology

"A welcome addition. . . . The reader comes away from this book with a new appreciation of the need for mindful attention, resilient action, and skills of improvisation. With these three resources as part of an action repertoire, we will go a long way toward acknowledging and preparing for worst-case scenarios."
— Karl E. Weick, American Journal of Sociology

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Acknowledgments

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0001
[envisioning the worst, sociocultural phenomenon, perceptual blind spot, sociocultural practices, cultural sociology, cognitive sociology]
This chapter discusses the coverage of this volume which is about envisioning the worst. Building on theories and ideas forwarded by both cultural and cognitive sociologists, this chapter argues that the inability to envision and specify the worst is, in part, a sociocultural phenomenon. It explains that the worst can become a perceptual blind spot, obscured or blurred by a variety of routine and patterned sociocultural practice and this makes it hard to define. This chapter also provides a summary of the chapters in this volume. (pages 1 - 16)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0002
[positive asymmetry, worst, cultural factors, social factors, perceptions of the world, personality type, interaction]
This chapter analyzes the breadth and scope of the so-called positive asymmetry and explores the ways in which both cultural and social factors influence the consequences of the label “worst.” It identifies the myriad of places and times in which positive asymmetry has informed groups' and communities' perceptions of the world. This chapter argues that the inability to see the worst is not confined to any particular context or any single person or personality type and that it can be found at all levels of interaction whether interpersonal, group, organizational, and cultural. (pages 17 - 71)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0003
[positive asymmetry, the worst, perceptual potholes, cultural practices, eclipsing practices, clouding practices, recasting practices]
This chapter discusses issues related to the practice of positive asymmetry. It argues that the practices used to distance the worst from our perceptual portholes are not haphazard or accidental but are strategic and oriented to practical outcomes. This chapter highlights the role of institutionalized cultural practices in the understanding of positive asymmetry and its prevalence. It also explains the three sets of practices that both initiate and sustain positive asymmetry: eclipsing practices, clouding practices, and recasting practices. (pages 72 - 121)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0004
[positive asymmetry, scientific measurement, quality-assessment tools, scientific tools, academic grading, consumer ratings, psychological assessments, athletic performances]
This chapter investigates how positive asymmetry is incorporated in scientific measurement. It analyzes a vast array of scientific gauges and measures designed to capture the broad range of quality, from academic grading to consumer ratings and from psychological assessments to the scoring of athletic performances. The analysis reveals that positive asymmetry is so deeply entrenched in most groups and communities that it affects a variety of carefully crafted quality-assessment tools, even scientific tools that we commonly assume to be objective and accurate measures. (pages 122 - 138)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0005
[the worst, cultural factors, social factors, quality labeling, normative reaction, criticism]
This chapter examines the consequence of being labeled the worst. It argues that the different fates of those labeled the worst are not haphazard or mysterious and explains that the impact of the label “worst” varies in systematic ways. This chapter analyzes several cultural and social factors associated with the contexts in which labeling occurs including the intended durability of quality labels, the labeler's power vis-à-vis the target and the normative reaction to criticism at work in the labeling context. (pages 139 - 163)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0006
[negative asymmetry, worst-case scenarios, medical practitioners, computer information technicians, perceptual inversions, quality evaluation, social relationships, patterns of action]
This chapter discusses the concept of the so-called negative asymmetry, the tendency to focus on worst-case scenarios. It identifies medical practitioners and computer information technicians as examples of groups that seemed especially tied to these perceptual inversions. This chapter analyzes the sense of daily action that is guided by visions of the worst and examines the similarities among communities that approach quality evaluation in this way. The analysis indicates that negative asymmetry may not be a product of any specific profession per se but rather is a way of seeing that emerges in social fields defined by very particular combinations of social relationships, resources, and patterns of action. (pages 164 - 192)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0007
[emancipating structures, negative asymmetry, worst-case scenarios, SARS outbreak, Y2K, Phoenix memo, Challenger disaster, cultural practices]
This chapter investigates the role of emancipating structures in the development of negative asymmetry. It compares high-profile cases involving worst-case scenarios including the SARS outbreak of 2003, the Y2K threat of 2000, the Federal Bureau of Investigation's handling of the “Phoenix memo” in 2001, and the Challenger disaster of 1986. The analysis reveals that certain structures play a pivotal role in nurturing the cognitive deviance needed to anticipate and avoid disaster. This chapter shows how emancipating structures can loosen the hold of dominant cultural practices and free groups and communities to pursue both unanticipated problems and creative solutions. (pages 193 - 232)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

- Karen A. Cerulo
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226100296.003.0008
[the worst, positive asymmetry, patterns of thought, cultural practices, negative asymmetry]
This chapter sums up the key findings of this study about the inability of see the worst or positive asymmetry. The findings clearly indicate that the cost of positive asymmetry outweighs its benefits. It this connection, this chapter investigates whether groups and communities should work to revamp collective patterns of thought, to change the cultural practices of centuries in order to achieve a balance between positive and negative asymmetry. It also analyzes whether the practices and structures that support positive asymmetry can ever really be successfully transformed. (pages 233 - 244)
This chapter is available at:
    https://academic.oup.com/chica...

Notes

References

Index

Book published by University of Chicago Press, 2006. Page maintained by BiblioVault.