Abstract—The main purpose of this study was to investigate
the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure
development investments by estimating the number of adverse
events in an active war theater based on the allocation of
infrastructure development projects utilizing a fuzzy inference
systems (FIS) approach. The considered model input variables
included the total number of economic improvement projects
and their associated budgets at different time periods in
Afghanistan between 2002 and 2009. The output variables were
the estimated numbers of people killed, wounded, and hijacked
in different sectors of Afghanistan in 2010. Six different
prediction models were developed and tested with an
independent datasets. The prediction accuracy of each FIS
model was evaluated and compared based on the mean absolute
errors (MAE). It was concluded that the FIS is a useful
modeling approach that can be applied under scenario-based
conditions to support decision makers in analyzing historical
economic data on how allocation of regional infrastructure
development funds can best help reducing the onset of adverse
events in an active war theater.
Index Terms—Adverse events, fuzzy inference system,
human social cultural behavior (HSCB) modeling,
infrastructure development.
E. Cakit is with the Department of Industrial Engineering, Aksaray
University, 68100, Aksaray, Turkey (e-mail: ermancakit@aksaray.edu.tr).
W. Karwowski is with the Department of Industrial Engineering and
Management Systems, University of Central Florida, Florida, FL
32816-2450 USA (e-mail: wkar@ucf.edu).
Cite: Erman Cakit and Waldemar Karwowski, "Assessing the Relationship between Economic Factors and Adverse Events in an Active War Theater Using Fuzzy Inference System Approach," International Journal of Machine Learning and Computing vol. 5, no. 3, pp. 252-257, 2015.