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A sustainable European energy system, mitigating climate change and solving a number of other key environmental problems, will require massive reliance on renewable energy sources combined with a sharp increase in energy productivity. Considering that most of the technologies necessary for such a development are already available, today's most important questions are: How can these technologies be integrated into the European energy system? What are the costs and benefits of such a strategy? What are the major bottlenecks and obstacles to such a development? What measures are necessary to support this development? In the book a "sustainable scenario" and a "fair-market scenario" are developed as a means to demonstrate that concepts for a sustainable future European energy supply are feasible.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Executive Summary

Abstract
A sustainable European energy system, mitigating global climate change and solving a number of other key environmental problems, will require massive reliance on renewable energy sources combined with a sharp increase in energy productivity. Considering that most of the technologies necessary for such a development have already been invented and tested at least on the level of prototypes, today’s most important questions are:
  • How can renewable energies and the efficient use of energy be integrated into the European energy system at sufficiently high diffusion levels?
  • What are the costs and benefits of such a strategy?
  • What are the major bottlenecks and obstacles to such a development?
  • What measures are necessary to support this development?
Helmuth-M. Groscurth

1. Introduction

Abstract
Mitigating global climate change is one of the central challenges to humankind in the coming decades. The problem is largely caused by manmade emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other infra-red active trace gases which are released from energy-conversion processes. The expected impacts on human living conditions range from changing precipitation patterns to rising sea levels and from decreasing harvests to an increase in extreme weather conditions. All of this has been examined and documented by numerous national and international committees such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1995 and 1996a-c).
Helmuth-M. Groscurth, Wolfgang Bräuer, Isabel Kühn, Sigurd Weinreich

2. Scenario for a Sustainable Future Energy System

Abstract
The Sustainable Scenario represents a normative look into the future, in which specified ecological target values are achieved by the year 2050. Laws and regulations introduced and enforced by the European Union, together with economic and fiscal measures, are the inherent forces towards achieving these goals. The transition from the present situation (documented in Sec. 1.2) to the desired future state in the year 2050 is described on the basis of plausible trajectories which are derived from logistic (s-shaped) market diffusion curves.
Harry Lehmann, Torsten Reetz, Brigitte Drees, Helmuth-M. Groscurth, Wolfgang Bräuer, Sigurd Weinreich

3. A Fair-Market Scenario for the European Energy System

Abstract
The Fair-Market Scenario represents a new development in the use of scenario techniques, an area in which the Roskilde unit has worked for over 20 years. The first scenarios constructed during the first half of the 1970’ies were aimed at demonstrating the existence of consistent energy demand and supply systems incorporating large amounts of renewable energy (Sørensen, 1975a-d). The next ten years saw several scenarios based on normative or market assumptions, the latter becoming possible as the cost of energy efficiency measures and new energy technologies became more established and the literature on market trends and prices increased (e.g. Blegaa et al., 1976; 1977; Sørensen, 1979; 1981a; 1982a; Hvelplundet al., 1983). Although the background for constructing these scenarios included environmental impacts, no detailed attempt was made to quantify them. During the 1990’ies, further emphasis on the environmental issues in scenario construction was imposed by the increased focus on global impacts such as greenhouse warming (Sørensen et al., 1994; Sørensen, 1996a; Ishitani et al., 1996), and progress was made in bringing the description of the externalities of energy conversion systems from the early qualitative level (Sørensen, 1974; 1981b) to a data-based quantitative level (e.g. Sørensen, 1993b; 1995b; European Commission DGXII, 1996; Kuemmel, Nielsen & Sørensen, 1997). The market-driven scenarios were based upon projected costs of new energy technologies (whether renewable, fossil, nuclear or related to end-use), while the more normative scenarios assumed changes in consumer attitudes. One may say that all scenarios have a normative component and the assumption that choices will be made on the basis of market prices is of course also a normative statement disproved by many historical examples.
Stefan K. Nielsen, Bent Sørensen

4. Bottlenecks and Obstacles — Success Stories and Measures

Abstract
In the preceding chapters, we saw that by the year 2050 it is quite possible to build a sustainable European energy system around the rational use of energy and the massive use of renewable energy sources achieving two ambitious targets at the same time: the reduction of CO2 emissions from energy conversion processes to a level of 20% of the emissions of 1990 and the reduction of nuclear power to zero. Thus, climate protection and the protection against the risks of a major nuclear accident can be attained simultaneously. It has been demonstrated that the resulting energy system can meet all energy demands even though intermittent energy sources play a central role in the new supply structure.
Olav Hohmeyer, Wolfgang Bräuer, Helmuth-M. Groscurth

5. Appendix I: Bottlenecks and Obstacles — Elements of a Methodology for National Diagnosis

Abstract
There are various types of obstacles and bottlenecks to renewable energy penetration. Each of these bottlenecks has to be treated at its own level. The following typology is a first attempt to give an account of the different types of bottlenecks. This typology derives its principles from the Economics of Conventions. Boltansky and Thévenot suggest differentiating between different “cities”; “cities” are ideal places characterised by their own scale of values, which guide the behaviour and guarantee the legitimacy of agents and permits co-ordination processes. Each city produces its own rules, conventions and institutions. In the real world, people belong to various cities at the same time, and the creation of real rules, norms, institutions and institutional mechanisms (like public service tariffs) result from mitigating various co-ordination processes. The authors distinguish between the city of market, the city of industry, the city of citizenship, the “inspired city”, and the “domestic city” etc. The detailed categories of bottlenecks are in a way related to the different cities (Boltansky and Thévenot 1987; Thévenot and Lafaye 1993).
Christophe de Gouvello, Pierre Matarasso, Marcelo Poppe

6. Appendix II: Additional Data and Figures

Without Abstract

Backmatter

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