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Erschienen in:
Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2015 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

11. Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting

verfasst von : Jean-Daniel Rinaudo

Erschienen in: Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition

Verlag: Springer Netherlands

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Abstract

This chapter reviews existing long term water demand forecasting methodologies. Based on an extensive literature review, it shows that the domain has benefited from contributions by economists, engineers and system modelers, producing a wide range of tools, many of which have been tested and adopted by practitioners. It illustrates, via three detailed case studies in the USA, the UK and Australia, how different tools can be used depending on the regulatory context, the water scarcity level, the geographic scale at which they are deployed and the technical background of water utilities and their consultants. The chapter reviews how practitioners address three main challenges, namely the integration of land use planning with demand forecasting; accounting for climate change; and dealing with forecast uncertainty. It concludes with a discussion of research perspectives in that domain.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Investing in the Water Infrastructure of Tomorrow
Nächstes Kapitel The Use of Non-pricing Instruments to Manage Residential Water Demand: What Have We Learned?
Fußnoten
1
Some sophisticated models also account for device leakage (taps dripping or losses due to poor fittings, pipe connections, etc.).
 
2
Note that this increase in demand would occur solely in summer months, putting additional stress on water resources and aquatic ecosystems during low-flow periods.
 
4
See EMWD Water Use Efficiency Regulation at: http://​www.​emwd.​org/​index.​aspx?​page=​91
 
5
A resource zone is defined as one where water taken from anywhere within the zone can be supplied to any other location in the zone. There are 68 resource zones in England and Wales. Resource zones are therefore relatively large units compared to what is found in other European countries where water services are still frequently operated at a local (municipal) level (e.g. France).
 
6
Regional spatial strategies (RSSs) set out how many homes are needed to meet the future needs of the population in the region. They are policy driven and include planned development initiatives by local authorities.
 
7
In 2007, some 60,000 questionnaires were sent out, with 9650 returns.
 
8
A dynamic general equilibrium model was used in this case. Water demand forecasting reports, however, do not provide details concerning it.
 
9
These demand assumptions reflect gains made in water use efficiency over the past 10 years: water use was about 500 L/p/d in 2000/01.
 
10
Note however that the model cannot predict the development of totally new activities.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting
verfasst von
Jean-Daniel Rinaudo
Copyright-Jahr
2015
Verlag
Springer Netherlands
Buch
Understanding and Managing Urban Water in Transition

Print ISBN: 978-94-017-9800-6

Electronic ISBN: 978-94-017-9801-3

Copyright-Jahr: 2015

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-9801-3_11