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Machine intelligence is already assisting humans in all areas of life with today’s technologies. Digital services expand the intellectual capabilities of humans, either by relieving people of routine tasks such as the administration of a bank account, performing traditional services like management of an appointments calendar or navigation, or by organizing photo and video archives including descriptions of the images. Machine intelligence amplifies human intelligence. The enormous potential for technological development up to the year 2030 lies in the convergence of a number of developments: Gigantic personal and factual databases that are automatically filled with detailed and up-to-date information from digital services and above all from sensors, the capabilities for machine learning, the necessary IT performance, intuitive man-machine collaboration, and the increasing execution of decision-making and actions by machines will transform our lives by 2030 to a far greater extent than imaginable today. A generalized artificial intelligence, the long-term goal of AI research, will, however, by no means have been achieved in 2030.
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The assumptions on which these predictions are based include the following:
Humans have largely forgone privacy for the sake of convenience in their day-to-day lives, and legislation nonetheless adequately prevents the misuse of personal data.
Policy-makers have agreed a code of conduct with the oligopoly of the megaportals, which continues to permit technological and economic development, and adequately protects citizens from one-sided market power.
Knote et al. relate activity to the consumer. As a logical consequence, they use the terms active and passive the other way around, i.e. a digital service that switches on the light when it gets dark without human intervention is described as passive.
- Machine Intelligence in the Year 2030
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