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2011 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

2. Main Challenges of Price Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets

verfasst von : Monika Tothova

Erschienen in: Methods to Analyse Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility

Verlag: Springer New York

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Abstract

Prices of agricultural commodities undergoing rapid adjustments were in the spotlight following the “food crises” in late 2007 and early 2008, and again more recently in summer and fall of 2010, raising concerns about increased price volatility, whether temporal or structural. Although price volatility is a normal feature of markets given the seasonal production cycle and discontinuity of supply in the face of a continuing demand, a greater uncertainty of a rapidly changing economic and natural environment contributes to and magnifies its occurrence. This chapter focuses on the main challenges of price volatility in agricultural commodity markets. We start by briefly touching upon the theoretical aspects of volatility, followed by a comparison of international and European markets to identify whether one was more affected than the other by increases in price volatility. Factors, implications and preliminary policy considerations of increased volatility follow before initial conclusions on future prospects are drawn.

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Fußnoten
1
This is calculated from the Black–Scholes formula for the price of a European call option on a stock.
 
2
Volatility and variation are used interchangeably in this chapter.
 
4
http://​www.​cmegroup.​com/​market-data/​reports/​historical-volatility.​html. To annualize their volatility figures, the CME group uses an average of 252 trading days each year. Due to holidays and weekends, the number of actual trading days each year can differ, and as such volatility results can differ.
 
Literatur
Zurück zum Zitat Dawe D. (2009). Price stabilisation for staple foods: costs and benefits, implications for modelling, and using trade policy as a safety net. Paper prepared for a meeting on Uncertainty and price volatility of agricultural commodities, MOMAGRI, Paris. Dawe D. (2009). Price stabilisation for staple foods: costs and benefits, implications for modelling, and using trade policy as a safety net. Paper prepared for a meeting on Uncertainty and price volatility of agricultural commodities, MOMAGRI, Paris.
Zurück zum Zitat Gilbert C.L. (1996). International commodity agreements: an obituary notice. World Development, 24, 1–19.CrossRef Gilbert C.L. (1996). International commodity agreements: an obituary notice. World Development, 24, 1–19.CrossRef
Zurück zum Zitat Irwin S.H., Sanders D.R. (2010). The impact of index and swap funds on commodity futures markets: preliminary results. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, 27, OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/5kmd40wl1t5f-en OECD. Irwin S.H., Sanders D.R. (2010). The impact of index and swap funds on commodity futures markets: preliminary results. OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Working Papers, 27, OECD Publishing. doi: 10.1787/5kmd40wl1t5f-en OECD.
Zurück zum Zitat OECD-FAO (2010). Agricultural outlook. Paris, OECD. OECD-FAO (2010). Agricultural outlook. Paris, OECD.
Metadaten
Titel
Main Challenges of Price Volatility in Agricultural Commodity Markets
verfasst von
Monika Tothova
Copyright-Jahr
2011
Verlag
Springer New York
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7634-5_2