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Über dieses Buch

The contributions by epidemic modeling experts describe how mathematical models and statistical forecasting are created to capture the most important aspects of an emerging epidemic.Readers will discover a broad range of approaches to address questions, such as

Can we control Ebola via ring vaccination strategies?

How quickly should we detect Ebola cases to ensure epidemic control?

What is the likelihood that an Ebola epidemic in West Africa leads to secondary outbreaks in other parts of the world? When does it matter to incorporate the role of disease-induced mortality on epidemic models? What is the role of behavior changes on Ebola dynamics? How can we better understand the control of cholera or Ebola using optimal control theory?How should a population be structured in order to mimic the transmission dynamics of diseases such as chlamydia, Ebola, or cholera?How can we objectively determine the end of an epidemic?How can we use metapopulation models to understand the role of movement restrictions and migration patterns on the spread of infectious diseases?

How can we capture the impact of household transmission using compartmental epidemic models?

How could behavior-dependent vaccination affect the dynamical outcomes of epidemic models?

The derivation and analysis of the mathematical models addressing these questions provides a wide-ranging overview of the new approaches being created to better forecast and mitigate emerging epidemics.

This book will be of interest to researchers in the field of mathematical epidemiology, as well as public health workers.



2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

A Reality of Its Own

Richard Rothenberg

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Modeling the Impact of Behavior Change on the Spread of Ebola

Jessica R. Conrad, Ling Xue, Jeremy Dewar, James M. Hyman

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

A Model for Coupled Outbreaks Contained by Behavior Change

John M. Drake, Andrew W. Park

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Real-Time Assessment of the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak

Ana Pastore-Piontti, Qian Zhang, Marcelo F. C. Gomes, Luca Rossi, Chiara Poletto, Vittoria Colizza, Dennis L. Chao, Ira M. Longini, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Modeling the Case of Early Detection of Ebola Virus Disease

Diego Chowell, Muntaser Safan, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Modeling Ring-Vaccination Strategies to Control Ebola Virus Disease Epidemics

Gerardo Chowell, Maria Kiskowski

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Evaluating the Number of Sickbeds During Ebola Epidemics Using Optimal Control Theory

Eunok Jung, Jonggul Lee, Gerardo Chowell

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Inverse Problems and Ebola Virus Disease Using an Age of Infection Model

Alexandra Smirnova, Linda DeCamp, Hui Liu

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Assessing the Efficiency of Movement Restriction as a Control Strategy of Ebola

Baltazar Espinoza, Victor Moreno, Derdei Bichara, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Patch Models of EVD Transmission Dynamics

Bruce Pell, Javier Baez, Tin Phan, Daozhou Gao, Gerardo Chowell, Yang Kuang

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

From Bee Species Aggregation to Models of Disease Avoidance: The Ben-Hur effect

K. E. Yong, E. Díaz Herrera, C. Castillo-Chavez

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Designing Public Health Policies to Mitigate the Adverse Consequences of Rural-Urban Migration via Meta-Population Modeling

Zhilan Feng, Yiqiang Zheng, Nancy Hernandez-Ceron, Henry Zhao

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Age of Infection Epidemic Models

Fred Brauer

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Optimal Control of Vaccination in an Age-Structured Cholera Model

K. Renee Fister, Holly Gaff, Suzanne Lenhart, Eric Numfor, Elsa Schaefer, Jin Wang

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

A Multi-risk Model for Understanding the Spread of Chlamydia

Asma Azizi, Ling Xue, James M. Hyman

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

The 1997 Measles Outbreak in Metropolitan São Paulo, Brazil: Strategic Implications of Increasing Urbanization

José Cassio de Moraes, Maria Claudia Corrêa Camargo, Maria Lúcia Rocha de Mello, Bradley S. Hersh, John W. Glasser

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Methods to Determine the End of an Infectious Disease Epidemic: A Short Review

Hiroshi Nishiura

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Statistical Considerations in Infectious Disease Randomized Controlled Trials

Matthew J. Hayat

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Epidemic Models With and Without Mortality: When Does It Matter?

Lisa Sattenspiel, Erin Miller, Jessica Dimka, Carolyn Orbann, Amy Warren

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Capturing Household Transmission in Compartmental Models of Infectious Disease

Jude Bayham, Eli P. Fenichel

2016 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Bistable Endemic States in a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible Model with Behavior-Dependent Vaccination

Alberto d’Onofrio, Piero Manfredi


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