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2015 | Buch

Mathematical Methods and Models in Economic Planning, Management and Budgeting

verfasst von: Galimkair Mutanov

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

This book describes a system of mathematical models and methods that can be used to analyze real economic and managerial decisions and to improve their effectiveness. Application areas include: management of development and operation budgets, assessment and management of economic systems using an energy entropy approach, equation of exchange rates and forecasting foreign exchange operations, evaluation of innovative projects, monitoring of governmental programs, risk management of investment processes, decisions on the allocation of resources, and identification of competitive industrial clusters. The proposed methods and models were tested on the example of Kazakhstan’s economy, but the generated solutions will be useful for applications at other levels and in other countries.

Regarding your book "Mathematical Methods and Models in Economics", I am impressed because now it is time when "econometrics" is becoming more appreciated by economists and by schools that are the hosts or employers of modern economists. ... Your presented results really impressed me.

John F. Nash, Jr., Princeton University, Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences

The book is within my scope of interest because of its novelty and practicality.

First, there is a need for realistic modeling of complex systems, both natural and artificial that conclude computer and economic systems. There has been an ongoing effort in developing models dealing with complexity and incomplete knowledge. Consequently, it is clear to recognize the contribution of Mutanov to encapsulate economic modeling with emphasis on budgeting and innovation.

Secondly, the method proposed by Mutanov has been verified by applying to the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with her vibrant emerging economy.

Thirdly, Chapter 5 of the book is of particular interest for the computer technology community because it deals with innovation.

In summary, the book of Mutanov should become one of the outstanding recognized pragmatic guides for dealing with innovative systems.

Andrzej Rucinski, University of New Hampshire

This book is unique in its theoretical findings and practical applicability. The book is an illuminating study based on an applied mathematical model which uses methods such as linear programming and input-output analysis. Moreover, this work demonstrates the author’s great insight and academic brilliance in the fields of finance, technological innovations and marketing vis-à-vis the market economy. From both theoretical and practical standpoint, this work is indeed a great achievement.

Yeon Cheon Oh, President of Seoul National University

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. Mathematical Methods of Budget Modeling

Abstract

This chapter presents a complex of models used to analyze and forecast the flow of budget financial resources. Current calculations and long-term forecasting of budget indicators are the instrument of realization of strategic development plans. Traditional methods of budget program planning are still widely used: they include planning based on rated standards specified by the superior bodies or by changing dynamics of the previous periods. However, the development of information technologies (IT), requirements of market economy and high pace of development give rise to new, highly intellectual, precise analytical and planning models.

The semantic and frame-based models suggested in the monograph create the mathematical base for automated system control. The author was the first in the world to develop the mathematical budget model which with mathematical exactness reflects properties and conditions at any budget level.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 2. Methods and Mathematical Models of Budget Management

Abstract

The methods and mathematical models for program control of budget resources focused on the end result such as correct planning were developed according to the strategic plan of socio-economic development of the country/region. The end result is used as a landmark which enables to estimate achievability of the predetermined level under certain limitations in budget funds and budget potential determined for the moment of the medium-term planning. The chapter presents the method estimating stability of program movements determining system decisions based on construction of Lyapunov’s function and allowing to estimate efficiency of budget mechanism of resource distribution. The principles of designing of an intellectual system modeling program control of budget resources and enabling to correct the obtained decision by adjustment of the system of indicators are described.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 3. Energy-Entropic Methods in Assessment and Control of Economic Systems

Abstract

New knowledge often arises at the intersection of different scientific schools when well-known laws of one science adapted to and interpreted by the other science enable to look at the studied phenomenon at the other angle. An example is application of the thermodynamical approach to the mathematical description and business system management focused on the decrease in their entropy and increase in productive efficiency. A theoretical approach proposed by the author becomes even more valuable as the national theory and practice do not contain any developments in the assessment of business system efficiency based on the energy-entropic method. The universality of the proposed method is based on the fact that all systems of the material world—wildlife and inanimate nature, technology and production are arenas of ever-present changes in the amounts of energy and entropy, studying of which can give new knowledge of laws governing functioning and development of such systems. This research shows scientifically-based application of the energy-entropic method to the assessment of economic efficiency of any production.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 4. Currency Trading Methods and Mathematical Models

Abstract

In the fourth chapter there is an analyzes of methods and mathematical models of the processes taking place in the foreign exchange market. The mathematical model of the balance of exchange rates is proposed in this work, conducted its analysis, formulated and solved the problem of the balance. The developed collocational models have a great versatility and allow us to solve the problems of forecasting of exchange market. The estimates of expected rates may be obtained by the extrapolation method. Sufficiently substantiated information helps us to solve the problem of determining the sequence of closed transactions of purchase and sale of currencies that lead to the speculating income. An information decision support system for banks Level 2 in order to adjust exchange rates is developed in order to correct the exchange rates.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 5. Methods and Mathematical Models of Innovation Project Appraisal

Abstract

In order to provide safety of financial investments in the conditions of information uncertainty the development of methods and mathematical models used to assess innovation projects is a strategically oriented innovation which enables every project to switch to the new expertise level with application of advanced information technologies. The role of risk-management and qualitative project assessment becomes more important if the project is innovative. It is the innovativeness of development that is one of the main priorities of the economic program of our country. A complex method of assessment of innovation projects and its graphic model based on such parameters as innovation, competitiveness and reduced net cost of a project enables to make complex assessment of innovation projects on the vase of absolute positioning. The methods and mathematical models presented in this chapter can be used by expert commissions of venture funds, development institutes and other potential investors to assess innovation projects.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 6. Mathematical Methods for Making Investment Decisions

Abstract

Investment to the development of economic processes and systems always entails risks. Not adequately reasoned investment decision can cause adverse economic consequences for the investor. Making investment decisions becomes more complicated because of high degree of uncertainty of economic consequences of investments. Mathematical methods and models proposed in the chapter represent an integrated methodology of making investment decisions that enables to reduce risks, more objectively estimate probability of investment consequences and equip the investor with a practical instrument of scientifically-based forecasting. A review of a variety of methodological approaches to risk studying shows that researchers mainly focus their attention on the entrepreneurial risk, i.e. as the object of analysis they consider individual enterprises, and the subjects of their investigations are statistical variations in stochastic probability distributions of all possible losses and damages. At the same time, insufficient attention is given to the investigation of principles of functioning and forms of manifestation of nonstatistical risks, their influence on the entrepreneurial activity and interaction with statistical risks. This research suggests a methodological base for creation of an integral expert system supporting coordinated investment decisions with account for assessment and control of project risks.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 7. Multi-Objective Stochastic Models for Making Decisions on Resource Allocation

Abstract

Methods and models for decision-making on the allocation of resources that are sufficiently important area of modern science are developed in this chapter. Need to take account of probability factors requires the development of stochastic models, and the desire of the decision to reduce the damage caused by the deterioration of the environment requires the development of methods of correction the original plan, and, therefore, leads to multistage models and methods of their optimization. The complex of mathematical methods and decision making models of distribution of resources in conditions of incomplete information on the base of using combined target functionals built by the classical principles of choice, such as egalitarianism and utilitarianism are used for analysis and modeling of right distribution of production and investment resources by the region/industry development in order to forecast the situation of managing risks of distribution resources within changing of social-economic sphere of considered projects.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 8. Mathematical Methods and Models for Monitoring of Government Programs

Abstract

To increase the efficiency of realization of governmental program of housing, the software of ensuring the transparency of its performance and enhance public confidence in the public authorities offered in this chapter. Such an evidence-based approach is a comprehensive vision of mechanisms for monitoring government programs at any level of the hierarchy of the budget, built on the conception of program-aimed management with the use of algorithmic procedures of information technology.

The introduction of information technologies for monitoring implementation of the state program of housing storitelstva will improve performance assessment costs, which characterizes the administrator of public policy objectives in the implementation of the state program.

Galimkair Mutanov

Chapter 9. Methodology for Identification of Competitive Industrial Clusters

Abstract

In this chapter considered methodology for identification of competitive industrial clusters. The modern development of Kazakhstan has a distinct regional context, occurs the need of conducting clustering of republics regions by the degree of similarity in economic development in order to develop effective territorial policy, that considers the differences of regional groups (regional clusters) and aimed to the development not only separate regions but also the whole territory of the country. The results of explorings in this chapter have science-based advisory character by the methods of regions economic management based on theoretical and methodological basis of exploring as the works of classics of economic science, modern science works of foreign and domestic economic scientists and the experts on the cluster theory, system analysis and the theory of managing of economic systems.

Galimkair Mutanov

Backmatter

Titel: Mathematical Methods and Models in Economic Planning, Management and Budgeting
verfasst von: Galimkair Mutanov
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-662-45142-7
Print ISBN: 978-3-662-45141-0
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-45142-7