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Erschienen in:
A Spatial and Economic Analysis of Megathrust Earthquakes Kapitel lesen Erstes Kapitel lesen

2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

6. Measuring Economic Gains from New Food and Automobile Industry Clusters with Coagglomeration in the Tohoku Region

verfasst von : Suminori Tokunaga, Mitsuru Okiyama

Erschienen in: Spatial Economic Modelling of Megathrust Earthquake in Japan

Verlag: Springer Singapore

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Abstract

In this chapter, we will take the concepts of Porter’s (1998, 2000) clusters and present an analysis of the feasibility of ongoing economic development in disaster regions, utilizing two new industry cluster models. The two clusters are the automobile industry, which targets the entire disaster region and where innovation comes from coagglomeration with different industries in megaregions, and the food industry, which, focusing on leveraging local resources, targets individual disaster-struck prefectures. This study applies a dynamic two-regional computable general equilibrium (D2SCGE) model, constructed in Chap. 5, assuming Scenario C (continuation of fiscal support for reconstruction on the basis of a new approach in a 5-year construction period from 2016 to 2020, following the intensive reconstruction period) as the base scenario. We constructed scenarios for each of these two clusters and evaluated the economic effects of each new industry cluster on disaster regions. A simulation analysis of scenarios for these two new clusters with positive and higher productivity in the coagglomerated industries reveals the following two effects: (i) economies of agglomeration from vertical and horizontal coagglomeration boost the real Gross regional Product (GRP) and productivity at the macro level when the two new industry clusters are formed jointly rather than separately and (ii) the clusters contribute to long-term, sustained growth in disaster region economies, thus reducing the gap between their growth and that of other regional economies. This can be interpreted to mean that the usual policies adopted, such as subsidies and corporate tax cuts, are unable to counteract economic stagnation resulting from sharp population decline in disaster regions. It also suggests that agglomeration externalities, evidenced by improved productivity in the formation of new food/automobile industry clusters, can offer sustained economic development in disaster regions.

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Vorheriges Kapitel Economic Analysis of Fiscal Measures for Reconstructing the Tohoku Region After the Great East Japan Earthquake: Using a Dynamic Two-Regional CGE Model
Nächstes Kapitel Production Recovery of Fishery and Seafood Manufacturing After the Disaster in Japan: Economic Evaluation Using Dynamic CGE Model
Fußnoten
1
The second industry tier as defined by the Japanese government (total: four tiers). For more (Japanese only), see http://​www.​soumu.​go.​jp/​main_​content/​000317696.​pdf
 
2
The most refined industry tier as defined by the Japanese government.
 
3
As an example from the town of Yamamoto in the Watari District, Miyagi Prefecture, the Yamamoto Strawberry Farm reopened and incorporated very shortly after the disaster on 20 June, changing its soil cultivation methods to shelf cultivation and growing its sales in strawberry cultivation/sales/processing to 85 million yen (FY2014), according to onsite research by Tokunaga dated 26-Feb-2016.
 
4
Eighteen local fishery processor companies in the city of Kessennuma formed the Kessennuma Shishiori Processing Co-op, running branding and sales activities based on their joint large-scale refrigeration facilities. Also launched was the Kesemo, an organization where other industry players beyond those in fisheries could participate, cooperating with research institutions, developing new products such as seasonings, working toward new industry generation and so on (Nikkei Newspaper, 29 Jun 2015, Morning Edition).
 
5
There are already regional partnerships in place between auto industry players in the Tohoku region, including an Iwate/Miyagi regional partnership in 2005, the “Tohoku Automotive Industry Agglomeration Partnership Conference (Aomori, Akita, Iwate, Miyagi, Yamagata, Fukushima)” in 2007 and the “North Tohoku Three-Prefecture Automotive Technology Symposium (Iwate, Akita, Aomori)” in 2008 (Murayama 2013, Fig. 4-2 p. 69).
 
6
JCER (2015) forecasted the Baseline Scenario that although the growth rate of Japanese economy can be achieved nearly 1% by 2020, the years 2021–2025 and 2026–2030 will likely see 0.3 growth and zero growth respectively.
 
7
For this 2SCGE model, see Appendix 1. Furthermore, for the spatial CGE mode, see Tokunaga et al. (2003), Hosoe et al. (2010), EcoMod Modeling School (2012), and Okiyama et al. (2014).
 
8
For the economics of Clusters, see Duranton et al. (2010), Fujita et al. (1999), Fujita and Thisse (2013), and Porter (1998, 2000).
 
9
In Japanese food industry for 1985–2000, the output elasticities with respect to agglomeration is estimated at 0.023 (Kageyama and Tokunaga 2006).
 
10
For more on the state of automotive industry agglomeration in Kyushu, see Mokudai and Ishiro (2013).
 
11
In Japanese assembly-type manufacturing industry for 1985–2000, the output elasticities with respect to agglomeration and coagglomeration are estimated at 0.06 and 0.013 (Tokunaga et al. 2014).
 
12
Prefectures such as Miyagi have established special reconstruction zones (forgiving local taxes for 5 years as well as national tax, etc.) to attract new industry.
 
13
This model has no assumptions of labor movement and capital transfer between the disaster-affected region and the non-disaster region. Therefore, even if the return to capital in the disaster-affected region had increased by the equivalent of the damage to the capital stock, there is no the capital transfer from the non-disaster region to the disaster-affected region. As a result, the real GRP of the disaster-affected region continues to be influenced by the damage to the capital stock even if the fiscal measures were implemented. In the future, we hope to conduct an improved CGE model that takes into account the movement of production factors between regions.
 
Literatur
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Murayama T (2013) Automobile industry promotion by industry-academia-government collaboration in Iwate. In: Orihashi S, Mokudai T, Murayama T (eds) Tohoku region and automobile industry. Soseisha, Tokyo, pp 62–107 (in Japanese)
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Metadaten
Titel
Measuring Economic Gains from New Food and Automobile Industry Clusters with Coagglomeration in the Tohoku Region
verfasst von
Suminori Tokunaga
Mitsuru Okiyama
Copyright-Jahr
2017
Verlag
Springer Singapore
Buch
Spatial Economic Modelling of Megathrust Earthquake in Japan

Print ISBN: 978-981-10-6492-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-981-10-6493-7

Copyright-Jahr: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-6493-7_6