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Open Access 2025 | Open Access | Buch

Measuring International Economics

100 Years Balance of Payments in Germany

herausgegeben von: Ursula Schipper, Robert Kirchner, Jens Walter

Verlag: Springer Nature Switzerland

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Inhaltsverzeichnis
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Über dieses Buch

Anlässlich des 100-jährigen Bestehens der deutschen Zahlungsbilanz deckt dieses Open-Access-Buch die wichtigsten historischen, konzeptionellen, analytischen und institutionellen Aspekte externer Statistiken ab. Er untersucht, wie sich die Zahlungsbilanz als Mehrzweckstatistik für makroökonomische Analysen entwickelt hat und zeigt, warum sie heute für solide wirtschafts- und geldpolitische Entscheidungen in einer globalisierten Welt von Bedeutung ist. Dieses Buch bringt Wissenschaftler, Statistiker und Praktiker aus nationalen, europäischen und globalen Institutionen zusammen, um im Kontext europäischer und globaler Entwicklungen auf 100 Jahre Zahlungsbilanz in Deutschland zurückzublicken. Ihre Beiträge bieten unterschiedliche Perspektiven darauf, wie die Ergebnisse im Laufe eines Jahrhunderts interpretiert wurden, beschreiben aktuelle Herausforderungen und blicken in die Zukunft. Sie formulieren neue Erkenntnisse darüber, wie Globalisierung, internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen und Interdependenzen zu messen sind. In vier Abschnitten behandelt dieses Buch die Geschichte und den Informationswert von Zahlungsbilanzstatistiken, ihre Bedeutung in der internationalen Politik sowie ausgewählte Aspekte der Qualität von Statistiken und der Messung der Globalisierung. Dieses Buch ist nicht nur für Ökonomen, politische Entscheidungsträger, Statistiker, Forscher und fortgeschrittene Studenten der Ökonomie und der offiziellen Statistik eine unverzichtbare Lektüre, sondern auch für jeden, der die komplizierten wirtschaftlichen Verbindungen zwischen Nationen und die Rolle verstehen möchte, die die Zahlungsbilanzstatistiken bei der Bereitstellung der Informationen spielen, die der Wirtschaftspolitik in der vernetzten Weltwirtschaft von heute zugrunde liegen.
Mit KI übersetzt

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter
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Open Access

Introduction
Abstract
Before providing a brief overview of the various authors’ individual contributions, we would like to take this opportunity to provide a brief, broad introduction to the term “balance of payments”, its underlying statistical concept and its analytical value.
Ursula Schipper, Robert Kirchner, Jens Walter
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100 Years Balance of Payments in Germany

Frontmatter

Open Access

The German Balance of Payments from an Analytical Perspective – Milestones through History
Abstract
This article highlights key features of the German balance of payments over the past 100 years and analyses important causes of structural changes in its components. The underlying conditions of monetary and foreign exchange policy are among the significant determinants here. After the end of the Second World War, the experience gained during the period of the Weimar Republic with regard to external developments and their repercussions on the domestic economy strengthened interest in international cooperation on issues relating to the monetary system and the external sector. This environment favoured the economic development of the Federal Republic of Germany through the swift integration of its real and financial sectors into the global economy. Germany’s current account has been positive in most years since 1949 and has tended to record large surpluses since the start of the new millennium. The corresponding net capital exports have led to strong growth in Germany’s net international investment position. However, this development is not the only factor to have shaped Germany’s balance of payments in the new millennium. The financial account, in particular, has seen shifts in its composition, with TARGET balances in the Eurosystem reflecting developments in financial markets and monetary policy.
Axel Jochem, Iris Nelißen
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The Methodological Development of the German Balance of Payments since 1924
Abstract
When examining the evolution of statistics or accounting frameworks such as the Balance of Payments, it is crucial to distinguish between the underlying concepts and the statistical methods used. While the concepts encompass the basic objectives and the definition of the characteristics to be collected, thereby determining their meaning, the methodology sets out how to obtain the required information. Both elements are fundamental to the work of official statistics. The following article focuses on the methodological development of the German Balance of Payments, as only this varies from country to country, while the concept applied in most countries follows the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The first part of this article sheds some light on the early stages of the establishment of a Balance of Payments system in Germany and the methods used for its compilation. The second part provides an overview of how statistical compilation was re-established in Germany after the Second World War and explains why a purely statistical collection system was chosen in the early years. Finally, the conceptual and methodological work of the Bundesbank in various international fora of the ECB, Eurostat, the IMF, the OECD and the UN is briefly reviewed.
Jens Walter
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Balance of Payments: an Indispensable Source of Information for an Open Economy

Frontmatter

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The Role of the Balance of Payments for Central Bank Policy: A Major and Reliable Ally for a Special Client
Abstract
This contribution delves into the intricate relationship between monetary policy and the Balance of Payments (BOP) in an open market economy, structured into three comprehensive parts. The first part explores the globalised economic landscape, emphasising the critical role of BOP in servicing diverse stakeholders amid dynamic global conditions. It underscores the indispensable value of BOP data for monetary policy, particularly during periods of economic stress and crises. The second part addresses the objectives and the analytical framework of monetary policy, setting the prime stage and the analytical background for macroeconomic issues and stressing the importance of a comprehensive data set to be defined. The legacy of the global financial crisis and the G20 Data Gaps Initiative are highlighted for their contributions to BOP. Furthermore, normative issues concerning BOP are put to the test, including the MIP in EMU. The final part offers a look into the statistical mechanisms of BOP, emphasizing the need to protect the trust in official statistics and the decisive role of conceptional expertise and experienced-based knowledge in the making of BOP.
Gerhard Ziebarth
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The Balance of Payments and Research inInternational Macroeconomics
Abstract
This chapter argues that, in recent decades, research in international macroeconomics both responded to developments reported in countries’ balances of payments and also contributed to shaping these developments. It describes how the emerging dominance of dynamic open-economy macroeconomic models with explicit microeconomic foundations – the “intertemporal approach to the current account” – coincided with the substantial growth of international capital flows in the 1990s. It then reviews how theory responded to the crises amongst emerging market economies during the late 1990s and early 2000s, the global financial crisis of 2008–09, and the European debt crisis that began in 2010. The chapter concludes by reviewing the merits of the intertemporal approach, e.g. in influencing the normative assessment of observed current accounts, and argues for a disaggregate perspective on international capital flows and countries’ net international investment positions.
Philipp Harms
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Balance of Payments–Part of the System of Official Statistics
Abstract
One result of the Enlightenment was the marriage of the nation state and (official) statistics. The establishment of nation states required reliable statistics, as well as necessitating political decisions within said states. Similarly, the emergence of international (e.g. UN) and supra-national (EU) institutions has been accompanied by the development of statistical infrastructure. Systems of official statistics were designed to measure national economies and economic activities, with the exception of international trade in goods. With the increasing importance of globalisation, these conditions and the requirements for official statistics systems have changed fundamentally. These changes affect all levels (basic statistics, accounts, indicators) and all statistical processes (design, production, communication). They require new methods of cooperation between national statistical institutions and new conventions between users and producers concerning the priorities and quality requirements set for statistical components. Last but not least, these changes also require close and trust-based cooperation between the actors at the national and interor supranational statistical levels. Meeting these challenges requires more than just a technical and methodological approach. Rather, it is necessary to understand and manage the effects of further developments and modernisation as part of the overall system of official statistics.
Walter Radermacher
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Balance of Payments Statistics–a Building Block for National Accounts
Abstract
The national accounts and balance of payments are conceptually consistent in terms of internationally coordinated sets of rules. These are currently the System of National Accounts 2008 for the national accounts, and the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual 2009 for the balance of payments. In keeping with these guidelines (which, in the case of the national accounts, are fleshed out further in the European System of Accounts 2010 for the European Union), the Federal Statistical Office and the Deutsche Bundesbank cooperate closely in producing their results based on mutually supplied data. These concern imports and exports, which are made up of cross-border flows of goods and services. In an open economy, what is known as the external balance (that is to say, exports less imports) is needed to calculate gross domestic product (GDP), the key indicator of an economy’s growth. Similarly, gross national income is likewise an important variable for the national accounts, and can only be computed by cooperating with the Bundesbank in the field of the balance of payments. Gross national income is obtained from gross domestic product by adding primary incomes received by resident units from the rest of the world and subtracting primary incomes paid to the rest of the world. To obtain gross national disposable income from gross national income, secondary incomes received from the rest of the world (taxes, social contributions and benefits, and other transfers) are added and secondary incomes paid to the rest of the world are deducted. Balance of payments statistics provided by the Bundesbank are important inputs for these cross-border transactions as well.
Sascha Ammermann, Luise Bauer, Rita Bolleyer, Stefan Hauf
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Balance of Payments: Necessary Information for International Politics

Frontmatter

Open Access

The IMF as the Standard Setter of Balance of Payments Statistics; from BPM1 to BPM7
Abstract
The first edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM) was published in 1948. TheManual was “prepared as the basis for regular reports of balance of payments data to the International Monetary Fund. Apart from supplying the Fund with data for its operating purposes, the Manual and the reports based on it [continues] earlier work done by the League of Nations in developing balance of payments statistics in standardized form” (International Monetary Fund 1948). Since the first edition of the Balance of Payments Manual, the BPM has progressively become the basis for countries to compile balance of payments and other sets of external sector statistics, most notably the international investment position. The international community has contributed to ensuring the BPM provides countries with a robust and comprehensive framework that shows the economic interrelationships between a national economy and the “rest of the world.” Over the last 75 years, the Balance of Payments Manual has evolved with changing economic developments, with the full reconciliation between flows (balance of payments) and stocks (international investment position) taking central stage in the forthcoming edition of the Manual (BPM7). Updating and maintaining the Balance of Payments Manual has been a global effort, marked by collaboration, thoughtful rigor, and sometimes intense debate. This chapter will highlight how the international community has worked together over the last 75 years to ensure countries have a statistical framework that helps them tell the story of their economic interactions with the rest of the world and note the specific contributions made by the German Statistical System to these developments.
Jim Tebrake, Carlos Sánchez-Muñoz
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Open Access

Evidence-Based Policymaking in the European Union Using Balance of Payments Statistics
Abstract
This article presents the multifaceted role of balance of payments (BOP) statistics in providing a basis for shaping European Union (EU) policies and monitoring their impact. It starts by describing the process of preparing and collecting BOP data, explaining the importance of sound methodology and the efforts taken by Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU, to ensure the high quality of the data. Subsequently, the article outlines various uses of BOP statistics, from detecting macroeconomic imbalances to analyzing the potential economic impacts of specific trade and customs policies, from enhancing transparency to strengthening accountability, from monitoring and evaluating, to informing the public. The article also details the specific case of the accounts of the EU institutions in BOP.
Cristina Pereira de Sá, Cornelia van Wersch, Robert Leisch, Matthias Ludwig
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The Euro Area Balance of Payments and International Investment Position and their Role in ECB Policy Making
Abstract
This chapter outlines the methods used by the European Central Bank (ECB), in cooperation with the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) to compile statistics on the euro area balance of payments and international investment position (BOP/IIP). It describes the key principles for compiling these statistics, including the treatment of the euro area as a single economic territory and the focus on transactions and positions with non-euro area residents. It also presents the main data sources, primarily national contributions from euro area countries, emphasizing the importance of data quality and harmonization for accurate euro area aggregates. Additionally, the chapter discusses euro area specific compilation practices. It also highlights the analytical value of BOP/IIP statistics for ECB policymaking, particularly in assessing the euro area’s exposure to external shocks and the international impact of ECB policies. The chapter also present recent advancements in the development of euro area BOP/IIP statistics, including more detailed breakdowns for special-purpose entities and enhanced sectoral and geographic information.
Jorge Diz Dias, Olga Monteiro, Martin Schmitz, Caroline Willeke
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Open Access

How Have Balance of Payments Statistics Been Used in OECD Statistical and Policy Analysis?
Abstract
This chapter reviews the main uses of Balance of Payments statistics within the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). These statistics are collected for OECD countries and selected non-members to monitor short-term developments in global trade and investment. The current account and its components also help gauge external imbalances and are analysed at the country level in OECD Economic Surveys, or at the global level in the Economic Outlook. Balance of Payments statistics are also nowcast and provide inputs to nowcast other key indicators, such as measures of engagement in global value chains. They are fully incorporated in macroeconomic projections, whose global consistency they help to ensure. On the measurement side, Balance of Payments statistics serve several purposes, including being a building block of analytical databases (e.g. bilateral services trade) or providing elements to capture new statistical concepts such as digital trade.
Annabelle Mourougane
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Selected Balance of Payments Related Aspects

Frontmatter

Open Access

The Eternal Quest for Quality in Official
Abstract
For official statistics to be relevant and used for decision-making, they have to be trusted by the (potential) users. For being trusted, their quality is of crucial importance. However, the quality of statistics depends on many different elements. The relative relevance of the different elements of quality depends on the actual use/purpose of the statistics. They have to be ‘fit-for-purpose’. In order to produce statistics of the necessary quality, the official statistics producers have to be trusted, too. For that, they not only need to have the necessary technical skills, methodologies, and access to the relevant underlying data, but also the right legal framework and governance structures. Transparency about all these elements and a reliable monitoring system are crucial for the (potential) users to be able to make their own informed judgment. The quality of official statistics is, however, not a static fact, but is subject to continuous challenges and a need for reevaluation as the to-be-measured phenomena and the information demands of society evolve. This leads to an ‘eternal quest for quality’ in official statistics.
Aurel Schubert
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Evidence-Based Policies and Data Quality – What is Missing?
Abstract
Official statistics institutions aim to collect data of high quality. In general, guidelines are available that help in achieving a high quality of data and, as a result, a high quality of statistics. However, in times of rising rates of nonresponse, alternative data collection methods come into play. This raises the question of whether statistics drawn from data collected via alternative methods still fulfil sufficient standards of quality. A related question concerns quality standards that are to be measured with regard to specific content. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of modern challenges in the use of data while taking consideration of high quality standards. This is especially important in the context of data used as evidence for policy purposes or legislative processes. Special emphasis is placed on raising awareness of quality considerations as well as data and statistical literacy and its integration into education and life-long learning.
Ralf Münnich
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International Finance Through the Lens of BIS Statistics: Residence vs Nationality
Abstract
Statistics used in international economics generally adopt a residence view, centred on an economy and the units located there. This is natural for understanding the geography of capital flows and other macroeconomic issues. However, the system of national accounts does only the extent of globalisation and the rise of multinational firms and financial intermediaries. Their balance sheets straddle national borders, and their decisions affect many countries in ways that are obscured in residence statistics. This feature uses BIS statistics to show how a nationality view, which groups balance sheets by the country of headquarters, can provide insights on policy-relevant issues such as foreign currency debt, deglobalisation and financial openness.
Patrick McGuire, Goetz Von Peter, Sonya Zhu
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The Commandment of Consistency: the Role of the Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics (CMFB)
Abstract
Consistency within and between official statistics is a key requirement of data users since it facilitates economic analysis, research and policymaking. This contribution briefly outlines the dimensions of consistency in the area of statistical accounting frameworks: consistency between accounting frameworks and source data, consistency within accounting frameworks (in the balance of payments, imperfect coherency results in errors and omissions), consistency between accounting frameworks (e.g. balance of payments, financial accounts and national accounts), and, ultimately, consistency between statistics of different countries (e.g. cross-border asymmetries). Based on this, it will discuss the arguments for and against strict consistency. The main part will deal with the practical steps needed to achieve consistency as well as the role of the CMFB and CMFB activities in this regard. These steps include: (1) consistent international manuals and classifications, (2) consistent interpretation of the manuals, (3) consistent implementation (including data sharing and estimations), and (4) consistent revisions. It turns out that much progress has been made over the last years but that statistical differences will not vanish altogether. However, user demand for consistency encourages official statisticians to learn from one another. This is a key factor driving further improvements in the quality of official statistics in many respects.
Robert Kirchner
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Backmatter
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Metadaten
Titel
Measuring International Economics
herausgegeben von
Ursula Schipper
Robert Kirchner
Jens Walter
Copyright-Jahr
2025
Electronic ISBN
978-3-031-77193-4
Print ISBN
978-3-031-77192-7
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-77193-4

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