Mental Modeling Approach

Developing effective risk communication strategies, plans, and messages on complex, scientific, and technical topics requires an in-depth understanding of stakeholders’ values, interests, priorities, and information needs. It is only through such insight, based on empirical research, that agencies and organizations can understand the complex environmental and individual factors that affect stakeholders’ decision making about these topics that shape their judgment and behavior.

Severe storms in 2005 along the U.S. Gulf Coast illuminated the importance of blending stakeholder and agency efforts in an integrated approach to flood preparedness planning. Risk management policy relies on the information provided by decision-makers and stakeholders on their risk perceptions and behavior. The flood risk management process for layperson, non-U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) experts, and two USACE expert groups were studied through a literature review and the creation of two expert models. Recommendations to both incorporate and alter stakeholder perceptions of flood risks were identified by characterizing and mapping stakeholders’ perceptions about the risks as described in the literature. This chapter will discuss mental models in the context of the USACE’s need for flood preparedness and response.

Government and private sector organizations are collectively adopting predicted impacts of climate change into strategic planning processes. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. Adaptive management (National Academies, Adaptive management for water resources project planning, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC, 2004) is a robust approach to decision making for management of complex systems. The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate the application of Mental Modeling to enable the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to incorporate adaptive management principles into its business practices so that it is better able to handle the potential impacts of climate change.

The purpose of this chapter is to demonstrate how Mental Modeling was used to improve performance in technology infusion and marketing (TIM), technical competence, and knowledge management by scientists and engineers with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers ’ (USACE) Environmental Laboratory (EL) at the Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC). A workshop was held in October 2012 with 30 EL scientists and project leaders representing a diversity of expertise and experience, to validate the TIM Approach for EL through hands-on application to three EL products/solutions. Broadly defined, the Approach is an action-oriented, results-producing process for achieving TIM through better understanding of EL technology/product/service opportunities. Narrowly defined, it is a structured approach for determining the total requirements for a specific technology, product, or service to be successful for the customer. The background on the TIM Approach and the workshop results are described in this chapter.

This chapter presents an application of the Mental Modeling approach applied to strategic stakeholder engagement in support of the development of the Chemical Hazards Emergency Medical Management Tool (CHEMM). CHEMM is an informational system designed to provide first responders, first receivers, and other potential users access to comprehensive information needed to prepare for and respond to chemical hazard emergency events via a robust, user-friendly interface. The Specialized Information Services Division (SIS) of the National Library of Medicine (NLM) led to the development of CHEMM in collaboration with CHEMM stakeholders. Decision Partners supported the NLM CHEMM Project Team (CHEMM Team) with implementation of the Mental Modeling approach for a science-based, strategic stakeholder engagement on the development of CHEMM.

Through the Mental Modeling approach, a comprehensive list of key stakeholders was developed, and then research was conducted to systematically identify their values, needs, interests, and priorities as potential CHEMM users. The resulting insight was used to inform development of CHEMM and to develop criteria by which CHEMM’s effectiveness can be evaluated and priorities established for its continued development.

The Chamber of Mines of South Africa was interested in significantly improving the industry’s occupational health and safety (OH&S) performance. More than two decades of prior investment and effort into technology transfer (deployment of technology—equipment, machines, training—in the workplace) had not produced satisfactory results in that it was not used, safety performance did not improve, or safety performance declined. Yet, many leaders throughout the industry remained convinced that technology transfer was the optimum means for improving OH&S performance. This chapter examines the process and outcomes of applying a Mental Modeling approach to identifying barriers and aids to widespread adoption of occupational health and safety technology and best practices in a mining operation, and then how they were used to design the behavioral and decision-making aspects of an industry initiative called the Leading Practice Adoption System (Adoption System)—an approach for achieving systematic adoption of innovative technology and best practices.

This chapter provides a specific application of Strategic Risk Communications^™ coupled with a Mental Modeling approach and demonstrates how it was customized and applied to help solve the long-standing industry challenge of gaining stakeholder understanding, trust, and ultimately judgment of biosolids land application in their communities. It can serve as a model for other organizations in the private and public sectors that require the support of local communities to ensure the viability of programs, products, and services operating within those communities.

Organizations that wish to successfully implement technologies that might affect local communities and that are of long-term strategic importance are wise to work with those communities to ensure that proposed projects are acceptable. In fact, organizations increasingly are required to work with communities to ensure that projects are mutually acceptable (Gregory et al., Energ Pol 31(12):1291–1299, 2003). Achieving projects that are broadly acceptable increasingly requires engaging with community stakeholders early in the process and adapting the project design to align with the values, interests, and priorities of the community. It also calls for developing effective risk communications to address misunderstandings or gaps in perceptions about the project and its potential impacts on the community.

This chapter presents a case study of how Mental Modeling was used to develop and implement a science-informed, systematic approach to stakeholder engagement in a rural community in Alberta, Canada. Mental Modeling was used to discover community members’ values and perceptions about a potential demonstration project using Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) generation technologies combined with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the area. This was the first integration of proven technologies applied to significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a coal-fired power plant in North America. The insight gained from the mental models research was then used to develop a comprehensive Host Community Engagement Strategy and Plan based on leading risk communications principles and practices.

Every year, hundreds of people in North America die from accidental carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning in their homes. In 2001, the Technical Standards and Safety Authority of Ontario (TSSA) identified illness and death from carbon monoxide poisoning in the home as their top risk management priority. This chapter describes how Mental Modeling was used to assist the TSSA and the Carbon Monoxide Safety Council in developing insight-based risk communications focused on raising homeowner awareness of the risk of CO in the home and the need to take appropriate action. The research followed the six-step Strategic Risk Communications Process™, an integral part of a risk management process. After defining the scope of the project and articulating the Opportunity Statement, an Expert Model of Reducing the Risk of Carbon Monoxide in the Home was created which provided an integrated expert understanding of the important influences on reducing the risk of CO in the home. This Model served as the analytical framework for 60 one-on-one interviews that assessed Ontario homeowners’ perceptions of the risk and the decisions that they make as a consequence of their perceptions. Two cohorts were interviewed based on TSSA’s risk assessment and with input from the expert group: seniors living in their original homes, and new homeowners. An analysis was done to determine gaps and alignments between experts’ and homeowners’ perspectives on all aspects of CO causes, effects, and interventions available to homeowners. Based on this gap analysis, specifically targeted risk communications strategies were designed to improve homeowners’ ability to make well-informed decisions and minimize risks associated with CO exposure. The desired outcomes of these interventions were to significantly improve TSSA and Carbon Monoxide Safety Council member organizations’ ability to design and conduct effective risk communications materials for homeowners about the risks of CO in the home. The research also led to recommendations for risk management interventions that were undertaken by TSSA and members of the Council.

In “Task 2” of the broader project, the Project Team, led by Reingold, in partnership with Decision Partners and Penn Schoen Berland, developed a Communications Research and Analytics Roadmap (CRAR) to provide the needed insight to guide the development of effective integrated communications services. This Roadmap was informed by the Foundational Research which comprised: (a) mental models research, summarized here, with a small group of key internal stakeholders to leverage existing research and Census Bureau knowledge; and (b) a review of existing research and literature primarily provided by the Communications Directorate.

Mental Modeling was used to conduct research with key internal CB expert stakeholders to gain in-depth insight into CB activities, stakeholders, and stakeholder engagement and communication activities. The highlights of that research and the resulting insight which was used to inform development of a Communications Research and Analytics Roadmap to support the Communications Directorate (CD) are presented in this chapter.

This chapter provides an overview of how the Mental Modeling approach is being supported and expanded to enable a broad range of applications by Decision Partners and its Certified Applications Professionals and licensees. Section 14.1 provides an overview of the proprietary CASS™ (Cognitive Analysis Software Suite) developed by Decision Partners to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the company’s research analysis capacity. Section 14.2 provides a case study of the first application of breakthrough stakeholder engagement software platform, Interactive Decision Support Technology™ (IDST™) comprising Mental Modeling Technology™ combined with state-of-the-science artificial intelligence and Synthetic Interview^® technology. In Sect. 14.3, we discuss current software development that enables systematic resilience “engineering” through the integration of Mental Modeling Technology™ with RiskLogik’s state-of-the-science advanced risk analysis, cyber resilience, geospatial analysis, and constructive simulation tools.