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Über dieses Buch

Klaus F. Zimmermann Migration has become a topic of substantial interest in Europe in recent years. Part of this interest is driven by the important political changes in East Europe and the potential threat of large East-West migration waves. However, due to the large differences in economic development a substantial migration pressure is also expected from the South of Europe as of other parts of the world. The global migration potential towards the higher developed areas has reached about 80 to 100 million people. Thereof, about 60 million would like to move permanently, 20 million temporarily and about 15 million are refugees and asylum seekers and approximately 30 million are iIIegals. The book consists of eight papers which are allocated to five parts: Theoretical Models (Part I), Performance of Migrants (Part 11), Migration Within Developing Countries (Part IV) and Immigration Policy (Part V)' Each paper begins with a brief summary of its content. Part I, Theoretical Models, contains first "A Microeconomic Zlmm.r-mann VI Model of Migration" by Siegfried Berninghaus and Hans-GUnther Seifert-Vogt. They study migration decision making under incomplete information and apply it to empirically relevant phenomena. The second paper by Gerhard Schmitt-Rink "Migration and International Factor Price Equalization" demonstrates that international migration tends to equalize national factor prices and factor shares even in the absence of international trade. In Part II, Performance of Migrants, Lucie Merkle and Klaus F.



Theoretical Models


A Microeconomic Model of Migration

In the first part of the paper we give a consistent formal model of migration decision making under incomplete information. It is shown that the migration problem can be regarded as a particular problem in the theory of stochastic dynamic programming. We discuss the Gittins index method as a helpful algorithm in deriving optimal migration decisions. In the second part of the paper we apply our theoretical results to two empirically relevant phenomena. We explain the “attractiveness of city lights” in rural/urban migration as a result of optimal decision making under incomplete information by using arguments that are different from Todaro’s explanation. Further, we give an explanation for the high correlation between inbound and outbound migration that is often observed in particular regions in developing countries.
Siegfried Berninghaus, Hans-Günther Seifert-Vogt

Migration and International Factor Price Equalization

In traditional models of international trade, equalization of factor prices takes place via equalization of commodity prices, i.e. without international trade commodity prices and consequently, factor prices will not be equalized at all. Here it is demonstrated that, all other things being equal, international migration tends to equalize national factor prices and factor shares even in the absence of international trade. Constant rates of net migration tend to equalize national population growth rates, and this in turn tends to equalize national factor prices and factor shares.
Gerhard Schmitt-Rink

Performance of Migrants


Savings and Remittances: Guestworkers in West Germany

The paper presents theoretical and empirical evidence on the determinants of guest-workers’ savings and remittances. Using a vast West German data set, it is shown that savings and remittances of migrants can be well explained by remigration plans and economic as well as demographic variables. The empirical results support the theoretical finding that a guest-worker’s perceived probability to remigrate affects his aggregate amount of savings negatively. However, the planned future duration of residence in Germany has a significantly negative effect only on remittances.
Lucie Merkle, Klaus F. Zimmermann

Effects of Emigration on the Sending Country


The Impact of International Labor Migration for Turkey

Turkey and Yugoslavia remain the only Southern European emigration countries outside the EC. An agreement of 1964 allowing Turkish workers to take up and to exercise an occupation of their own choice anywhere within the EC after December 1st 1986, was checked in the mid-eighties. By German influence and with heavy financial compensation, the Turkish government was pushed to step back from the right of free movement within the Common Labor Market for Turkish workers. This paper discusses some economic consequences of this resignation of the right of free labor movement by the Turkish government. It concludes that emigration only under certain preconditions may influence positively the economy of the sending country. Therefore it is argued that a re-examination of the agreement of 1964 might be in the interest of both the EC and Turkey: The solution of recent migration problems needs the collective action of an internationally coordinated migration policy.
Thomas Straubhaar

Migration Within Developing Countries


Rural -Urban Migration On the Allocation of Risks in Developing Countries

In developing countries, for several decades, massive net rural-urban migration has been observed. Such migration can be interpreted as resulting from attempts to realize an optimal allocation of individual risks. However, in fact, the allocation of individual and collective risks is sub-optimal. The identification of main reasons for the failure of rural-urban migration is indispensable for improving welfare in developing countries.
Renate Schubert

Place of Birth and Past Place of Residence in South Korea: Methodological Considerations for Migration Research

This paper evaluates the possibility to estimate immigration and net migration from information about place of birth by applying the census-survival-ratio (CSR) method to life-time migration. The results show that this procedure substantially underestimates actual immigration, especially in the young-adult ages. The procedure yields slightly better results with net migration, especially concerning the age profile. But this procedure is not a large improvement over estimates that can be obtained from applying the CSR method to the general population.
Joachim Singelmann, Jiang Hong Li

Immigration Policy


Migration Pressure in Germany: Past and Future

This paper investigates the West German experience with immigration after World War II. It is argued that West Germany has been an immigration country ever since the beginning of the fifties. The size of the inflow of migrants is comparable to the population pressure to the USA at the beginning of the century. From this perspective, the dramatic tone of the current migration debate in Europe is qualified. The view taken is more optimistic: Even if larger immigration takes place, it might be beneficial from an economic point of view. Also, it will compensate for the stagnating population due to low (below replacement) fertility rates.
Christoph M. Schmidt, Klaus F. Zimmermann

The Economic Consequences of Selective Immigration Policies

The divergence in demographic development between Europe and many other parts of the world is likely to lead to selective immigration of well-trained labor from developing countries into Western Europe.
The policy of a selective immigration policy is studied here with a two-country economic growth model. The welfare effects are considered for both the country of emigration and of immigration. This policy is compared to the situation where countries abstain from selective immigration policies.
An immigration policy is likely to be restricted to skilled labor. A constant migration flow from the country with a high population growth rate to the country with a lower growth rate is shown to be generally a Pareto-inferior policy. To obtain optimal growth, an investment policy in human and physical capital is the preferable alternative.
Jozef M. M. Ritzen, Hendrik P. van Dalen


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