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Why should we trust climate models? Trust in a model comes through testing, evaluation and validation of the model. Evaluation requires comparisons against observations. Both the observations and the model may be uncertain, and this uncertainty must be addressed. Observational and model uncertainties are described in detail. An essential part of climate science uses models to make projections. Projections of historical time periods allow evaluation of models against the observational record. Success in representing the past increases our confidence in future predictions. Weather forecasting and seasonal climate prediction improve our ability to validate climate models. The different way models are run is described in detail. When we run models for the future, we make either projections or forecasts, and these are different and need to be understood. A projection is usually dependent on an assumed scenario for model inputs, like future emissions of greenhouse gases. As an example of model evaluation, we discuss the evaluation of models in the assessment and projection of ozone depletion.
For a description of the development of the thermometer, see McGee, T. D. (1988). Principles and Methods of Temperature Measurement. New York: Wiley Interscience.
If your Latin is good, see Fahrenheit, D. G. (1724). “Experimenta et Observationes de Congelatione aquae in vacuo factae.” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 33(381–391): 78. doi: 10.1098/rstl.1724.0016.
Described in Benedict, R. P. (1984). Fundamentals of Temperature, Pressure, and Flow Measurements, 3rd ed. New York: Wiley.
See Erying, V., Shepherd, T., & Waugh, D., eds. (2010). SPARC Report on the Evaluation of Chemistry-Climate Models. SPARC Report 5, WCRP-132, WMO/TD-1526. Stratospheric Processes and Their Role In Climate, World Meteorological Organization, http://www.sparc-climate.org/publications/sparc-reports/sparc-report-no5/.
World Meteorological Organization. (2011). “Executive Summary: Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010.” In Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project–Report No. 52. Geneva: Switzerland: Author.
- Model Evaluation
Richard B. Rood
- Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Chapter 9