nach oben

Erschienen in:

2015 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation

verfasst von : Aron Larsson, Osama Ibrahim

Erschienen in: Electronic Participation

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

Einloggen

Aktivieren Sie unsere intelligente Suche, um passende Fachinhalte oder Patente zu finden.

search-config

KI-gestützte Suche

Aus

Abstract

In this paper we present a work process with associated operational research modeling and analysis tools for the policy formulation stage of the Lindblom policy cycle process model. The approach exploits the use of causal maps for problem structuring and scenario generation of policy options together with decision analysis for evaluating generated scenarios taking preferences of decision makers and stakeholders into account. The benefits of interest when exploiting this integrated modeling approach is to enable for; (i) problem structuring and facilitating understanding and communication of a complex policy problem, (ii) simulation of policy consequences and identification of a smaller set of policy options from a possible very large set of possible options, and (iii) structured decision evaluation of the generated alternative policy options.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 102.000 Bücher
über 537 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Technik"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Technik" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 390 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Automobil + Motoren
Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Elektrotechnik + Elektronik
Energie + Nachhaltigkeit
Maschinenbau + Werkstoffe

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

Online-Abonnement

Mit Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" erhalten Sie Zugriff auf:

über 67.000 Bücher
über 340 Zeitschriften

aus folgenden Fachgebieten:

Bauwesen + Immobilien
Business IT + Informatik
Finance + Banking
Management + Führung
Marketing + Vertrieb
Versicherung + Risiko

Jetzt Wissensvorsprung sichern!

Jetzt informieren

Vorheriges Kapitel Social-Economic Approach to an eParticipation Experience Based on eCognocracy

Nächstes Kapitel Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis in Policy Formulation Initiatives: The EU-Community Approach

Simulation and Evaluation with Multiple Perspectives and Agents Integrated.

Acar, W.: Toward a Theory of Problem Formulation and the Planning of Change: Causal Mapping and Dialectical Debate in Situation Formulation. U.M.I, Ann Arbor (1983)

Acar, W., Druckenmiller, D.: Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis. Futures 38, 993–1009 (2006)CrossRef

Axelrod, R.: The cognitive mapping approach to decision making. In: Axelrod, R. (ed.) Structure of Decision, pp. 221–250. Princeton University Press, Princeton (1976)

Bero, L.A., Jadad, A.R.: How consumers and policymakers can use systematic reviews for decision making. Ann. Intern. Med. 727(1), 37–42 (1997)CrossRef

Brown, R.: Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider. Wiley, New York (2005)CrossRef

Bryant, B.P., Lempert, R.J.: Thinking inside the box: a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77, 34–49 (2010)CrossRef

Bryson, J.M.: What to do when stakeholders matter. Public Manag. Rev. 6(1), 21–53 (2007)CrossRef

Comes, T., Hiete, M., Wijngaards, N., Schultmann, F.: Decision maps: a framework for multi-criteria decision support under severe uncertainty. Decis. Support Syst. 52, 108–118 (2011)CrossRef

Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L., Idefeldt, J., Larsson, A.: Using a software tool for public decision analysis: the case of Nacka municipality. Decis. Anal. 4(2), 76–90 (2007)CrossRef

Druckenmiller, D.A., Acar, W.: An agent-based collaborative approach to graphing causal maps for situation formulation. J. Assoc. Inf. Syst. 10(3), 3 (2009)

Fasth, T., Kalinina, M., Larsson, A.: Admissibility concepts for group portfolio decision analysis. In: Proceedings of GDN 2013 (2013)

Franco, L.A., Montibeller, G.: Problem structuring for multicriteria decision analysis interventions. In: Cochran, et al. (eds.) Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. Wiley, New York (2011)

Hansson, K., Larsson, A., Danielson, M., Ekenberg, L.: Coping with complex environmental and societal flood risk management strategies: an integrated multi-criteria framework. Sustainability 3(9), 1357–1380 (2011)CrossRef

Hamilton, A.: Policy formulation – critique, analysis and strategic implications, in new voices: essays on the policy process. JSGS Student Working Paper Series, Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy (2010)

Franco, L.A., Montibeller, G.: Facilitated modelling in operational research. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 205, 489–500 (2010)CrossRefMATH

Howlett, M., Ramesh, M., Perl, A.: Studying Public Policy: Policy Cycles & Subsystems. Oxford, New York (2009)

Kilgour, D.M., Chen, Y., Hipel, K.W.: Multiple criteria approaches to group decision and negotiation. In: Ehrgott, et al. (eds.) Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis. Springer, Berlin (2010)

Larsson, A., Johansson, J., Ekenberg, L., Danielson, M.: Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision. Int. J. Uncertainty, Fuzziness Knowl. Based Syst. 13, 495–510 (2005)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH

Lindblom, C.: The Policy-Making Process. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs (1968)

Mingers, J., Rosenhead, J.: Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict. Wiley, New York (2001)

Mingers, J., Rosenhead, J.: Problem structuring methods in action. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 152(3), 530–554 (2004)CrossRefMATH

Montibeller, G., Belton, V.: Causal maps and the evaluation of decision options – a review. J. Oper. Res. Soc. 57, 779–791 (2006)CrossRefMATH

Tsoukiàs, A.: On the concept of decision aiding process: an operational perspective. Ann. Oper. Res. 154(1), 3–27 (2007)MathSciNetCrossRefMATH

Tsoukiàs, A., Montibeller, G., Lucertini, G., Belton, V.: Policy analytics: an agenda for research and practice. EURO J. Decis. Process. 1, 115–134 (2013)CrossRef

Turnpenny, J., Radaelli, C.M., Jordan, A., Jacob, K.: The policy and politics of policy appraisal: emerging trends and new directions. J. Eur. Public Policy 16(4), 640–653 (2009)CrossRef

Zavadskas, E.K., Turskis, Z., Kildiene, S.: State of art surveys of overviews on MCDM/MADM methods. Technol. Econ. Dev. Econ. 20(1), 165–179 (2014)CrossRef

Titel: Modeling for Policy Formulation: Causal Mapping, Scenario Generation, and Decision Evaluation
verfasst von: Aron Larsson
Osama Ibrahim
Verlag: Springer International Publishing
Buch: Electronic Participation
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-22499-2

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-22500-5

Copyright-Jahr: 2015
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-22500-5_11

Springer Professional

Abstract

Bitte loggen Sie sich ein, um Zugang zu Ihrer Lizenz zu erhalten.

Sie haben noch keine Lizenz? Dann Informieren Sie sich jetzt über unsere Produkte:

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik"

Springer Professional "Technik"

Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"