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2008 | Buch

Modelling Environmental Dynamics

Advances in Geomatic Solutions

herausgegeben von: Martin Paegelow, María Teresa Camacho Olmedo

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe: Environmental Science and Engineering


Über dieses Buch

Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals.



Concepts, Tools and Applications

1. Advances in geomatic simulations for environmental dynamics
Modelling environmental dynamics aids in the understanding and anticipation of future evolutions. Their prospective simulation supports decision-making for environmental management. This introductory chapter gives an overview about the context, objectives and opportunities (the challenges), followed by a summery of the methodological approaches commonly used in environmental modelling and simulation. Based on this general opening, the third part presents comprises chapters, which are case studies applying various models to a large array of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, and land management. In this section, authors provide a comparison of these case studies based on several criteria such as objectives, scales, data, study areas, calibration and validation techniques, results and outcome.
M Paegelow, MT Olmedo Camacho

Case Studies


Decision support and participatory modelling

10. Simulating greenhouse growth in urban zoning on the coast of Granada (Spain)
Within the last 30 years, greenhouse growth on the coast of Granada has become an environmental and territorial process of extraordinary significance, which has caused a huge transformation in the landscape and the traditional irrigated crops existing in this Mediterranean area. The creation of simulation models for generating future scenarios is focused on the evaluation of the environmental consequences of the increasing greenhouse use, mainly on non-urbanizable land according to coastal urban planning. Commonly, this land has higher environmental and heritage values. A simulation model based on cellular automata has been created, similar to those widely utilized in urban processes modelling. The agricultural use of the simulation model has followed the dynamics of urban process models of recent years, for their industrial and intensive characteristics and the significant process of diffusion and spatial contagion, with hardly taking into consideration the urban planning mechanisms.
F Benavente Aguilera, A Ruiz Matarán, R Campaña Pérez, LM Montes Valenzuela
11. Greenhouses, land use change, and predictive models: MaxEnt and Geomod working together
We have developed a methodology which predicts the expansion of greenhouses and evaluates the results, combining a species distribution model (MaxEnt) and a simulator of land use change (Geomod). In the simulations, we take into account not only the effect of different environmental variables governing greenhouse expansion but also the spatial distribution of the error. The method has been tested on a region of SE Spain to establish future greenhouse-expansion scenarios. The results indicate that the combination of MaxEnt and Geomod improves the predictive capacity, as well as the functional interpretation of the land use change models.
B Pando de Benito, J Giles de Peñas

Urban environment and urban growth

12. Modelling intra-urban dynamics in the Savassi neighbourhood, Belo Horizonte city, Brazil
We have developed a space-time model to analyze and simulate the land use changes from 1985 to 2004 in the Savassi neighbourhood, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The study area represents an important commercial reference to the city of Belo Horizonte, although it currently needs a new model for revitalization of its economic sector. We analysed two periods: 1985 to 1996, the rising of a burgeoning street commerce in the region, and 1996-2004, the decline of this commerce and intense transformation of Savassi into a service zone. The conceptual basis for the development of the spatial simulation model was the technique of cellular automata, implemented on the software DINAMICA. Results from simulations for the 1996-2004 period approached the historical spatial patterns of change and projections to 2020 demonstrated the trend of this neighbourhood, continuing its trans-formation into a major service zone, thus concentrating commercial establishments into a few shopping malls. Therefore, the utilization of this land use simulation model showed its potential as a tool for urban planning, aiming to foresee urbanistic implications due to land use dynamics.
M Godoy, BS Soares-Filho
13. Creation and evaluation of development scenarios for metropolitan patterns
In this study, different forms of urban growth have been identified in the metropolitan area of Granada showing time-space distribution of the urban process over the last 30 years, territorial accessibility and the densification process in the types of occupancy. Once these different forms have been identified using a model based on cellular automata specifically developed for this field of study, several simulations were generated. In these simulations the growth patterns previously identified have been reproduced. Hence, the different resulting scenarios have been evaluated through spatial analysis metrics, which will be tested as an evaluating element for scenarios, through the criteria of the spatial mosaic structure formed by those scenarios.
Valenzuela Montes LM, Aguilera Benavente F, Soria Lara JA, Molero Melgarejo E
14. Towards a set of IPCC SRES urban land use scenarios: modelling urban land use in the Madrid region
The objectives of this study are to test the applicability of urban land use change models for the simulation of climate change scenarios for large regions and to define the future research needs in this topic. Specifically, the scenarios A1, A2 and B2 produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) have been used for the implementation of three urban land use scenarios in the Madrid region. A cellular automata-based model has been used for the modelling component of the experiment. The land use scenarios were developed for an area of about 10,000 km2. This area includes about 340 municipalities of the Madrid Autonomous Community and other municipalities beyond it representing the functional region of Madrid. The IPCC SRES emissions scenarios were used to produce the storylines describing the narrative socio-economic and political conditions that will drive future land use change. The scenarios produced cover the period 2000-2040. CORINE land use datasets were used as input data into the model. This European-wide dataset creates the possibility of modelling large European areas using a single implementation of the model. This approach opens new possibilities for the assessment of the impacts of urban land use development (e.g., transport needs, increasing exposure to natural hazards, impacts from climate change, urban sprawl).
The results of the experiment were useful for studying aspects such as urban sprawl and sub-urbanisation. These two effects of urban growth have become a serious concern in Europe. Simulating sprawl and sub-urbanisation by using land use change models provides planners with a powerful tool for territorial decision-making. Indeed, the inclusion of SRES scenarios in an urban land use modelling approach enables the exploration of potential environmental impacts arising from several paths of socio-economic evolution and climate change. The proposed methodology also provides the possibility to discern the effects of urban and regional planning instruments and policies at local and regional level.
JI Barredo, M Delgado Gómez

Model comparison applied to deforestation and reforestation

2. Land use / Land cover change dynamics in the Mexican highlands: current situation and long term scenarios
This paper examines the land use/land cover change dynamics in the Purepecha Region of the Michoacan State, Central Mexico. This region is representative of the Mexican Highlands in both its socioeconomic and ecological aspects.The vegetation consists primarily of pine-oak forests and pine forests. There are large areas used for agriculture and permanent crops –particularly avocado orchards-. The region is undergoing a complex pattern of land use/land cover change, including a rapid process of forest degradation and deforestation as well as the abandonment of agricultural areas leading to forest regrowth. We use remote sensing techniques to determine the regional land use/land cover change transition matrix for the period 1986-2000, and discuss the land use/land cover change dynamics. We then apply the GEOMOD model (Hall et al. 1995) to build long-term scenarios in the region. With this tool we identify the most important drivers for the deforestation process and build vulnerability maps on potential deforestation sites within the region in 2025.
G Guerrero, O Masera, J-F Mas
3. Tropical deforestation modelling: comparative analysis of different predictive approaches. The case study of Peten, Guatemala
The frequent use of predictive models for analyzing of complex, natural or artificial phenomena is changing the traditional approaches to environmental and hazard problems. The continuous improvement of computer performance allows for more detailed numerical methods, based on space-time discretisation, to be developed and run for a predictive modelling of complex real systems, reproducing the way their spatial patterns evolve and pointing out the degree of simulation accuracy. In this contribution we present an application of several methods (Geomatics, Neural Networks, Land Cover Modeler and Dinamica EGO) in the tropical training area of Peten, Guatemala. During the last few decades this region, included in the Biosphere Maya reserve, has seen a fast demographic raise and a subsequent uncontrolled pressure on its own geo-resources. The test area can be divided into several sub-regions characterized by different land use dynamics. Understanding and quantifying these differences permits a better approximation of a real system; moreover we have to consider all the physical, socio-economic parameters, which will be of use for representing the complex and sometimes random human impact. Because of the absence of detailed data from our test area, nearly all the information was derived from the image processing of 11 ETM+, TM and SPOT scenes; we studied the past environmental dynamics and we built the input layers for the predictive models. The data from 1998 and 2000 were used during the calibration to simulate the land cover changes in 2003, selected as reference date for the validation. The basic statistics permit to highlight the qualities or the weaknesses for each model on the different sub-regions.
M Follador, N Villa, M Paegelow, F Renno, R Bruno
4. Evaluation of prospective modelling methods: fuzzy logics and cellular automaton applied to deforestation in Venezuela
Spatial evolutions of anthropized ecosystems and the progressive transformation of spaces through the course of time emerge more and more as a special interest issue in research about the environment. This evolution constitutes one of the major concerns in the domain of environmental space management. The landscape evolution of a regional area and the perspectives for a future state raise particularly important issue. What will the state of the region be in 15, 30 or 50 years?
Time can produce transformations over a regional area such as emergence, disappearance or the union of spatial entities. These transformations are called temporal phenomena. We propose two different methods to predict the forestry development for the forthcoming years in the experimental area, which reveals these spatial transformations. The proposed methods are based on fuzzy logic and Cellular Automata (CA).
The methods are supported by the analysis of the landscape dynamics of a test site located in a tropical rain forest country: the oriental piedmont of the Andes Mountains in Venezuela. This large area, at the scale of a Spot satellite image, is typical of tropical deforestation in a pioneer front. The presented approaches allow the geographer interested in environmental prospective problems to acquire type cartographical documents showing future conditions of a landscape. The experimental tests have showed promising results.
G Selleron, T Mezzadri-Centeno
5. Prospective modelling of environmental dynamics: A methodological comparison applied to mountain land cover changes
During the last 10 years, scientists have made significant advances in modelling environmental dynamics. A wide range of new methodological approaches in geomatics –such as neural networks, multi-agent systems or fuzzy logics– have been developed. Despite this progress, the modelling softwares available have to be considered as experimental tools rather than improved procedures that are able to work for environmental management or decision support. In particular, the authors think that a large number of publications suffer from discrepancies, when trying to validate their model’s results.
This contribution describes three different modelling approaches applied to prospective land cover prediction. The first one, a combined geomatic method, uses Markov chains for temporal transition prediction, while their spatial assignment is supervised manually by the construction of suitability maps. Compared to this directed method, the two others may be considered as semi-automatic because both the polychotomous regression and the multilayer perceptron only need to be optimized during a training step – the algorithms themselves detect the spatial-temporal changes in land cover.
The authors describe the three methodological approaches and their practical applications to two mountainous studied areas: one in the French Pyrenees, the second including a large part of Sierra Nevada, Spain. The article focuses on the comparison of results. The major result is that prediction scores are higher than the actual land cover is persistent. They also underline that the geomatic model is complementary to the statistical ones which perform higher overall prediction rates but produce weaker simulations when there are numerous land cover changes.
M Paegelow, MT Olmedo Camacho, F Ferraty, L Ferré, P Sarda, N Villa

Decision support and participatory modelling

6. GIS-supported modelling and diagnosis of fire risk at the wildland urban interface. A methodological approach for operational management
The recent evolution of the rural and urban areas has led to the progressive emergence of a complex and multiform wildland urban interface. Today this interface has turned into a fire threat which is omnipresent The evolution in progress raises in particular the question of the safety of the people and goods and, more generally, that of the management and durability of development of these territories. Taking into account these problems in installation and planning tasks requires a risk analysis, which is often too complex to be implemented by traditional techniques. The recourse to GIS-supported modelling is tested here as an integrated, dynamic and operational tool for spatial diagnosis, display and recommendation as regards to risk management. This chapter describes the original approach that was implemented, the constitution of the data base, and the resulting diagnosis and display of risk created by the model.
JF Gltié
Participatory modelling of social and ecological dynamics in mountain landscapes subjected to spontaneous ash reforestation
The future of the agriculture in mountain areas constitutes an important stake for sustainable development in relation to landscape functions and their role in local economies. This future depends highly on its ability to develop innovative and multifunctional agricultural systems and to preserve its attractiveness for future generations. Encroachment and reforestation of landscapes, which comes from land abandonment and extensification of land use, raise important topical issues. In Pyrenean valleys, where the land is colonised by the ash tree (Fraxinus excelsior), local land managers and policy-makers want to understand better the relationships between the ecological and social processes in order to assist in the design of policies supporting constructive change. Here we present the “companion modelling” approach in which we are all together constructing a simulation model for carrying out a prospective study of land use and landscape changes in the region. According to the principles of this participatory approach, we started developing a spatialised multi-agent model, whose main conceptual aspects are presented here below. The model simulates the evolution of land cover of the agricultural landscape in relation to both the natural and anthropogenic dynamics. Ecological field studies having stressed the role of mowing and grazing practices at the parcel level on colonisation of the local landscape by the ash tree, we focus on the account of prospective change in farmers’ land management practices (viewed as a set of decision rules) and their impact. This ongoing study underlines the interest of spatially explicit modelling of the inter-relationships between social and ecological dynamics at the agricultural landscape scale based on an interdisciplinary approach for dealing with rural development topical issues. Both the advantages gained and the difficulties raised are discussed.
C Monteil, C Simon, S Ladet, D Sheeren, M Etienne, A Gibon
8. Land use scenarios: a communication tool with local communities
The municipality of La Huacana in the Mexican state of Michoacàn, is currently undergoing a process of intense land use change, which has severe environmental repercussions. This dry tropical region has a high rate of population emigration leading to the abandonment of crop land, largely due to the low agricultural yields. At the same time small-estate holders are converting the forest cover to pasture. All of these topics have resulted in land degradation and increased water depletion, which are already some of the most severe problems in the region.
Landsat and ASTER images dated 2000, 2003 and 2006 were classified in order to generate land use/cover maps of the municipality. Then, we modeled land use/cover changes using DINAMICA, a spatially explicit model for land cover change modelling. The selection of the variables used to explain the land use/cover transitions was determined using the information obtained in a workshop carried out on the Rural Development Council Assembly along with a statistical analysis based upon the land use/cover changes maps for the period 2000-2003 derived from the remotely sensed data. The 2006 land use/cover map obtained through the model calibrated on 2000-2003 data was compared with the map derived from 2006 ASTER images analysis. This comparison showed a reasonable performance of the model. As the next step, the model was used to mimic three possible scenarios for 2015 that encompass a plausible range of future trajectories of deforestation. The first one assumes that 2000-2003 deforestation trends will continue, the “cattle” scenario assumes that deforestation rates will increase and finally the “sustainable” scenario assumes that the communities will implement protected areas and that deforestation due to cattle ranching will decrease.
The perspective of local inhabitants and authorities was useful to conceptualize the model. Showing the different scenarios to the community and local authorities could be a valuable tool for making future decisions and to become aware of the need to establish strategies to protect the community’s resources.
G Cuevas, J-F Mas

Decision support and participatory modelling

9. Retrospective geomatic landscape modelling. A probabilistic approach
Geographic information systems include, among a variety of analytical functions, those intended for spatial-temporal modelling and decision support, particularly multi criteria evaluation and multi objective evaluation. These tools are particularly useful for simulation scenarios because of their reproducibility of results and the possibility to define the amount of trade off and risk exists in the decision process. This paper focuses on the methodology and results obtained for retrospective land use modelling in the Alpujarra Alta Granadina (Andalusia, Spain) for the 16th, 18th and 19th century.
A multi criteria evaluation produces many land use potential maps, also called suitability maps, one for every objective (land use category). It is based on a chronological set of land use maps and the criteria, which are considered responsible for the observed changes and their estimates for agricultural use. After that, the multi objective evaluation resolves the incompatibilities between the potentials uses for the chronological set (1572, 1752, 1855/61), and rebuilt probabilistic historical maps based on the statistical known area. The results show the probable location for a specific use and allow the testing of the methodology and the specification of some contributions and limits. A complete validation, however, is not possible due to a lack of comparable historical documents.
MT Olmedo Camacho, M Paegelow, P Martínez García
Modelling Environmental Dynamics
herausgegeben von
Martin Paegelow
María Teresa Camacho Olmedo
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN
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