Modelling intra-urban dynamics in the Savassi neighbourhood, Belo Horizonte city, Brazil

We have developed a space-time model to analyze and simulate the land use changes from 1985 to 2004 in the Savassi neighbourhood, Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The study area represents an important commercial reference to the city of Belo Horizonte, although it currently needs a new model for revitalization of its economic sector. We analysed two periods: 1985 to 1996, the rising of a burgeoning street commerce in the region, and 1996-2004, the decline of this commerce and intense transformation of Savassi into a service zone. The conceptual basis for the development of the spatial simulation model was the technique of cellular automata, implemented on the software DINAMICA. Results from simulations for the 1996-2004 period approached the historical spatial patterns of change and projections to 2020 demonstrated the trend of this neighbourhood, continuing its trans-formation into a major service zone, thus concentrating commercial establishments into a few shopping malls. Therefore, the utilization of this land use simulation model showed its potential as a tool for urban planning, aiming to foresee urbanistic implications due to land use dynamics.