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2008 | Buch

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Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe

European Competiveness and Global Strategies

verfasst von: Roberta Capello, Roberto Camagni, Barbara Chizzolini, Ugo Fratesi

Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg

Buchreihe : Advances in Spatial Science

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft"

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Über dieses Buch

The aim of this book is to tackle the question of what the European territory will look like over the next fifteen years by providing quali-quantitative territorial scenarios for the enlarged Europe, under different assumptions on future globalisation strategies of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and East and West European countries. The approach is as neutral as possible vis-à-vis the results, leaving to a new forecasting model, the MASST model, built by the authors, to produce the tendencies and behavioural paths of regional GDP and population growth in each individual European region under alternative assumptions on the competitiveness strategies of different blocks of countries. The results are accompanied by strong policy messages intended to encourage long-term strategic thinking among a wide range of actors, scientists and policy makers in response to the risks and opportunities that the European territory will face.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

From Forecasts to Quantitative Foresights: Territorial Scenarios for an Enlarged Europe

Abstract

Over the last decade, Europe has been faced by drastic economic, institutional and social changes that place the future of its territory under severe stress. From an institutional point of view, the enlargement of the European Union, on the one hand, and the European Monetary Union on the other, generate new challenges to the European economy. In turn, the globalisation of the economy and the competition raised by emerging and dynamic areas (such as Brazil, Russia, India and China) are new sources of threat which influence future European growth opportunities and income distribution among European regions. Moreover, deep social changes and tendencies are today at work. They encompass the ageing of the population in all European countries, and a growing number of immigrants from lagging to richer areas of Europe and from poor countries outside Europe; phenomena which generate further challenges.

Roberta Capello, Roberto Camagni

Theoretical and Empirical Underpinnings

Frontmatter

1. Space and Theoretical Approaches to Regional Growth

Abstract

The implementation of an operational regional growth model like the one proposed in this book requires a solid theoretical and conceptual basis which clarifies the choices made between the alternative perspectives – demand driven vs. supply- driven, endogenous vs. exogenous, top-down vs. bottom-up, aggregate macroeconomic vs. micro territorial and micro behavioural – presently available for the explanation of regional growth patterns.

Roberta Capello

2. Regional Competitiveness: Towards a Concept of Territorial Capital

Abstract

As shown in the previous chapter, we may argue that, in the long term, theoretical supply-oriented approaches have outperformed strictly demand-oriented ones, of a Keynesian nature, in the interpretation of regional development processes. In fact, on the one hand, regional internal demand is not relevant, even in the short run, to drive regional growth, given the huge interregional integration and ever-increasing international division of labour. On the other hand, national demand growth is certainly more relevant to internal regional performances, but it is so on a ‘on-average’ basis: single regions may outperform (or under-perform) the national average at the expense (in favour of) other regions,2 either because of a more appropriate (poorer) sectoral mix or because of a favourable (unfavourable) competitive differential.

Roberto Camagni

3. Space and Empirical Approaches to Regional Growth

Abstract

Over the past twenty years there has been a resurgence of interest in space among all forms of economic analysis, including empirical inquiry. The previous chapters have highlighted the theoretical development of space in local growth theories, preparing the ground for the conceptual framework used in the operational MASST model. This chapter describes how the treatment of space has developed in empirical analyses of regional growth, the specific aim being to link empirical techniques for the measurement of local growth determinants with the technical choices made in designing the MASST model.

Roberta Capello, Ugo Fratesi

4. National and Regional Econometric Models

Abstract

In the past few years, very little effort has been made to specify and estimate fullfledged econometric models of regional growth. There were many examples of such modelling in the 1970s and 1980s, but not much has been produced since. This has been partly due to the decline in multiequational models of macro economies that characterized the end of the last century. Regional and urban econometric analyses have more recently focused on the specification and estimation of single equation models or of small systems of equations dealing with partial equilibrium issues independently from the other markets that characterize a regional economy.

Barbara Chizzolini

Conceptual and Methodological Specifications

Frontmatter

5. The MASST Model: A Generative Forecasting Model of Regional Growth

Abstract

This part of the book is devoted to the conceptual and methodological aspects that characterise our forecasting methodology. In particular, the present chapter provides an in-depth description of the MASST (MAcroeconomic, Sectoral, Social and Territorial) model – a combination of an econometric model of regional-national economic growth with a simulation algorithm – whose foremost purpose is to forecast medium-term trends in economic growth and demography for the new Europe (the enlarged EU plus the two new member countries, Bulgaria and Romania).2 Future economic and demographic tendencies are obtained under different scenarios: systems of consistent conjectures about how the trends affecting growth and the associated policies will manifest themselves in a fifteen-year perspective.

Roberta Capello

6. The Estimation Procedure: Data and Results

Abstract

Previous chapters have concentrated on the theoretical and empirical underpinnings of regional modelling, thus preparing the ground for presentation of our regional growth model. The structure and the logic behind the MASST model have been highlighted in Chap. 5.

Roberta Capello, Barbara Chizzolini

7. The Simulation Procedure: The Algorithm, the Target Variables and the Stability of the Model

Abstract

The previous two chapters have illustrated the theoretical underpinnings of MASST (Chap. 5) and presented the econometric components of the model (Chap. 6). The MASST model, however, also comprises an intrinsic simulative component which is a necessary part of it. The first aim of this chapter is hence to explain technically how all the assumed and estimated causality links among the relevant variables and between national and regional economies work, and how one can obtain predicted values of both national and regional income and population growth from MASST.

Barbara Chizzolini, Ugo Fratesi

Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe: Regional Quantitative Foresights

Frontmatter

8. Driving Forces of Change: The Baseline Scenario

Abstract

While the previous part of this book discussed methodological aspects concerning the MASST model, this part presents the scenario assumptions and the simulation results.

Roberta Capello

9. Global Challenges and European Strategies: Alternative Scenarios

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to explanation of the logic lying behind the construction of alternative scenarios and to the presentation of the main characteristics of the scenarios themselves.

Roberto Camagni, Roberta Capello

10. Territorial Images of the Future: The Quantitative Foresights Results

Abstract

This chapter is devoted to the presentation of the scenario results. It first reports aggregate results on the average annual growth rates for the EU27, and for the two large blocks of countries, the OLD15 and the NEW12 countries, under each scenario. As will be shown, the four scenarios exhibit rather different growth trajectories, and they highlight interesting aspects: the combination of reactive, modernising and reconverting strategies produces the most expansionary scenario, while a cost-competitive strategy by the NEW12 gives rise to a successful growth trajectory only if the BRIC countries do not adopt the same price-competitive approach. In general, the strategies put in place in the external world heavily influence European growth trajectories in all scenarios (Sect. 10.2).

Roberta Capello, Ugo Fratesi

11. Towards a Conclusion: Regional and Territorial Policy Recommendations

Abstract

This chapter examines the new potential role and style of regional policies in the EU in the context of the global challenges highlighted in the previous chapters. The logical bases of the different scenarios that were depicted and simulated in their inter-regional impacts lay in the evolution of macroeconomic, structural and technological forces; these possible evolutions were unified into a few stylised ‘strategies’ adopted by the main global player countries.

Backmatter

Titel: Modelling Regional Scenarios for the Enlarged Europe
verfasst von: Roberta Capello
Roberto Camagni
Barbara Chizzolini
Ugo Fratesi
Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Electronic ISBN: 978-3-540-74737-6
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-74736-9
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-74737-6