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Erschienen in:
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2017 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes

verfasst von : Igor A. Yevsikov, Konstantin O. Korovin, Askar I. Sarygulov

Erschienen in: Industry 4.0

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

The evolution of social-economic systems is nonlinear, containing both periods of gradual changes and swift transformational upswings. Seven years after the end of the last crisis of 2007–2009, recovery rates of the US and European economies remain extremely low. One of the reasons is structural-economic crisis, requiring considerable time and substantial financial resources to overcome. By the start of the crisis, all developed economies of the world, particularly US economy, had well pronounced structural allometry with disproportionally high share of the financial and banking sectors.
In this paper we propose new approaches for the evaluation of structural shifts, based on the attractor theory, the use of proportionality factor and Wold-Mensch’ nonlinear model. Our results allow the construction of structural changes monitoring system and also demonstrated, that there always exist certain states in economic system, in which the volume of production (GDP) exceeds their empirical value. The proposed system for the monitoring of structural changes can be used not only for research purposes, but also for structural shift management.

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Vorheriges Kapitel On the Asymmetry of Economic Cycles
Nächstes Kapitel Distribution and Clusters of Basic Innovations
Fußnoten
1
Finite domain of unavoidable convergence of phase trajectories of complex system movement is called attractor in synergetic. Point (stable focus) or another system that is more complex can stay in the capacity of attractor.
 
2
In the capacity of statistical base we used database from http:​/​www.​oecd.​org/​statisticdata/​
 
3
Let us find solution of Eq. (5) with the aid of fsolve optimization function in proximity to P t P t known values.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Modern Trends in Evaluation of Macroeconomic Structural Changes
verfasst von
Igor A. Yevsikov
Konstantin O. Korovin
Askar I. Sarygulov
Copyright-Jahr
2017
Buch
Industry 4.0

Print ISBN: 978-3-319-49603-0

Electronic ISBN: 978-3-319-49604-7

Copyright-Jahr: 2017

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-49604-7_5