Monitoring and Analysis of Groundwater Recharge Dynamic

Depletion of groundwater (GW) means a scarcity of water which means that there is a lack of water. Water scarcity is a shortage of clean water sources to meet the water demand. Many regions of India are facing a decrease in levels of groundwater which just so happens to be one of the most important water sources in India. Our motive is to analyze Nashik, as it is one of the cities reaching Day 0 condition cities since 5 medium-sized dams out of the total 24 medium and large dams in Nashik district have gone dry. The aim is to determine there charge rate of groundwater using data of annual rainfall and annual groundwater at Nashik, since groundwater recharge is dependent on the mean annual GW and mean annual sum of precipitation. By using these datasets, a prediction can be made to determine at what rate the groundwater of Nashik is being recharged and will analyze the scarcity of water that residents of Nashik will have to face in the future. For this, time-series analysis and forecasting have been applied to rainfall and groundwater datasets using SARIMA models. The metric used for the optimal choice of parameters for SARIMA is AIC. A minimum value of the Akaike Information Criterion shows the most optimal parameters for a particular model. R square score is used for model evaluation.