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Climate change has been identified as one of the greatest threats to humanity of all times. In addition to producing adverse environmental conditions such as rising sea level, drought, crop failure, vector-borne diseases, extreme events, degradation of water/air quality and heat waves, climate change is also considered a threat multiplier that leads to local and international conflicts and armed interventions. Urban areas may bear the brunt of climate change, as they are the centers of human habitation, anthropogenic stressors and environmental degradation, and the ensuing health impacts are of grave societal concern. The papers in this volume span a suite of climate change repercussions, paying particular attention to national security and human health aspects. It is an outcome of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop held during April 28-30, 2011 in Dubrovnik, Croatia, sponsored by the NATO Science for Peace and Security Program. The contributions cut across the elements of modeling, natural, political and social sciences, engineering, politics, military intervention, urban planning, industrial activities, epidemiology and healthcare.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Chapter 1. National Security and Human Health Implications of Climate Change

The first section of the paper presents key findings from the 2007 report,

National Security and the Threat of Climate Change

by the CNA Corporation, including that projected climate change: (1) Poses a serious threat to U.S. National Security; (2) Acts as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions in the world and; (3) Adds tensions even in stable regions of the world. In the second section I summarize work conducted by myself and Dr. Ralph Espach at CNA that identifies exactly which countries are most relevant to the CNA Military Advisory Board’s original findings. By compiling data from a variety of sources, we identify the states most exposed to the impacts of climate change both in the short and long term. The next section introduces estimates of the resilience of these countries, and combines our evaluation of country exposure and expected resilience to create a 3-tiered ranking of countries most vulnerable to political and/or humanitarian crises as a result of climate impacts.

Marcus DuBois King

Chapter 2. Islands in a Sea of Change: Climate Change, Health and Human Security in Small Island States

Small island states are often seen as the

cause célèbre

of climate change, although the total population at risk in small island states is substantially less than the dense populations at risk in low lying coastal areas globally. Nonetheless, Islands remain particularly vulnerable to climate change and climate variability. Viewing only the vulnerability of islands, however, limits the scope of island adaptation and denies island peoples agency. Human security, the relationship between environmental degradation, resource scarcity and conflict, and the use of the concept “climate refugees” are briefly discussed. The relationship between climate change and health is small islands is then explored using examples from the extreme ENSO event of 1997–1998. An argument is made for robust, multisectoral, stakeholder based approaches to climate change adaptation in islands. New paradigms including transdisciplinary climate change science must be embraced.

Nancy Lewis

Chapter 3. Issues of Climate Change, Health and National Security in Expanding Cities Worldwide

The changing climate and environment in cities and their effects on human health and national security are reviewed. Science and policies need re-examining when applied to growing mega-cities as their diameters exceed 50–100 km and their populations rise beyond 30 million people. Although urban areas themselves contribute to climate change, caused by their increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rapidly expanding energy use, depending on their structure and operation they may or may not contribute more per person than in rural areas. Environmental and social policies are considered for how large conurbations can be prepared for climatic and environmental hazards including health and security, and how these policies need to be coordinated with those for mitigating GHG emissions and adapting megacities to the hazards associated with climate change. Hazard refuges and urban insurance may be two techniques that need more consideration.

J. C. R. Hunt, S. E. Belcher, Y. V. Timoshkina

Chapter 4. Climate Change, Tipping Elements and Security

Climate change is increasingly being described as a threat to international (as well as ‘human’) security. We examine the claim that it is the so-called ‘tipping elements’ of the Earth System which constitute the most important threats. Three examples of suggested tipping elements, (1) de-stabilization of the West-Antarctic Ice Cap, (2) acidifi cation of the upper layers of the ocean and (3) die-back of the Amazon rain forest, are used to illustrate the ways in which tipping elements may cause insecurity, in various meanings of the term. Further, the use of the tipping element/point metaphor as a means of communicating the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change is discussed, and it is compared to the alternative terminology used by IPCC. Subsequently, we discuss the extent to which the use of the tipping element/point metaphor constitutes ‘securitization’ of climate change, and whether or not such securitization, in ‘hard’ or ‘soft’ versions, is desirable. It is concluded that while ‘hard securitization’, presumably involving use of force, is unlikely to be relevant, ‘soft securitization’ may be realistic – and even necessary - in order to mobilize the reform of international political institutions required to deal effi ciently with climate change in general and tipping elements specifi cally.

Kjeld Rasmussen, Thomas Birk

Chapter 5. Interactions of Global-Warming and Urban Heat Islands in Different Climate-Zones

IPCC results show that global-warming over the last 35 years has not been spatially uniform over the globe on both the seasonal and diurnal time-scales. Urban areas likewise produce their own climates, e.g., cities cool less rapidly than their rural surroundings at night, thus forming nocturnal urban heat island (UHIs). As UHIs interact with regional global climate-changes, this paper investigated interactions between these two phenomena in different climate zones around the world. It first focused on the spatial distribution of 2-m summer maximum-temperature trends for the period of 1970–2005 in the highly populated Southern California Air Basin, which exhibited a complex pattern of cooling in low-elevation coastal-areas and warming at inland areas. The coastal cooling resulted as global warming of inland areas produced enhanced cool-air sea breeze intrusions, i.e., a “reverse reaction” to global warming. To investigate interactions between global warming and UHI-growth, pairs of sites were identified near cooling-warming boundaries. The faster each urban area grew, the faster its UHI grew. To determine where UHI-growth and global climate-change either are additive or in opposition, requires understanding of the global distribution of climate types and of the diurnal and ­seasonal patterns of UHI-formation in each climate type. UHI formation is a ­function of the thermal inertia (TI) of adjacent rural surfaces. Coastal-cooling is most likely in west-coast marine-Mediterranean climates. Urban cool islands counter global-warming and reduces thermal-stress events in dry rural-soil climates, while heat-stress events are most-likely in wet rural-soil climates.

Robert Bornstein, Ruri Styrbicki-Imamura, Jorge E. González, Bereket Lebassi

Chapter 6. ENSO Forcing of Climate Variability over the North Atlantic/European Region in a Warmer Climate Conditions

Changes in winter climate variability in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing in a warmer climate are investigated. The study is based on two 20-member ensembles of numerical integrations by utilizing an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of intermediate complexity. Current climate experiment is based on ­simulations forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SST) for the period 1855–2002. The warmer climate corresponds to the doubled CO

2

concentration with SST forcing represented by the same SST anomalies as in the current climate experiment superimposed on the climatological SST that was obtained from a complex atmosphere–ocean general circulation model forced with the doubled CO

2

. A composite analysis of atmospheric response is based on categorization into warm and cold composites according to the strength of SST anomalies in the Niño3.4 region.

In the current climate, ENSO impact on the winter interannual variability in the NAE region is rather weak, but is still discernible and statistically significant. Over the south-western part of Europe warm (cold) ENSO events are mainly associated with warmer (colder) and dryer (wetter) conditions than usual. According to the results of numerical simulations in the climate with doubled CO

2

concentrations, substantial modifications of ENSO influence on the NAE region are found. The spatial pattern of the ENSO impact on the NAE precipitation projects onto the ­distribution of differences between the warmer climate and the current climate ­precipitation climatology fields. Therefore, a considerable ENSO impact on temperature and precipitation may be expected in warmer climate conditions implying a possibility of greater importance of tropical-extratropical teleconnections for future climate variability in the NAE region. Since temperature and precipitation are the variables of great interest of policy makers for adaptation and mitigation ­purposes, their proper representation is essential for climate projections.

Ivana Herceg Bulić

Chapter 7. Climate Variation or Climate Change? Evidence in Favour in the Northern Adriatic Area, Croatia

Global warming is getting ever more concerning. Meteorological ­parameters such as yearly mean temperature, minimum and maximum temperature, relative humidity, yearly precipitation depth as well as number of days with rain obtained at meteorological station in Rijeka (120 m a.s.l.) were analysed. The time series include data from 1977 to 2010. The data analyses showed increase in yearly average temperature by 0.3–0.6°C, and increase of daily maximum by approx. 10°C over the period studied. In spite of declining trend in precipitation depths until 2007, the number of rainy days increased for approx 30 days at the same time, suggesting switching to warmer and more humid climate. The last 3 years data show the opposing trend thus smoothing these trends. The first evidence of climate variation and/or climate change might be the appearance of Asian tiger mosquitoes (Aedes albopictus) recently, as well as sea level elevation in the Northern Adriatic.

Ana Alebić-Juretić

Chapter 8. Atmospheric Aerosol Climatology over the Globe: Emphasis on Dust Storms

Atmospheric aerosols play a major role in climate change science debate. These can influence climate in two ways, directly and indirectly. Since the ­concentration and composition of atmospheric aerosols are very variable in time and space, their characteristics cannot be studied individually, but in terms of their climatological effects. This study gives some of the main features that characterize atmospheric aerosols. Four locations in the world are selected due to their different environments (weather and atmospheric conditions). The aerosol optical depth and the Ångström-exponent are examined at these sites for the period 2002–2004. Emphasis is given on the atmospheric aerosols in the form of dust. The aerosol ­optical depth and the aerosol index are presented for a dust storm that occurred over Greece in April 2005.

Harry D. Kambezidis, Dimitra H. Kambezidou, Stella-Joanna H. Kampezidou

Chapter 9. Climate Change and Adoption Strategies – A Report from the Republic of Serbia

This paper deals with global climate change, which is one of the most pressing environmental, economic, political and social issues of the world. Serbia is no exception, and there is obvious evidence about climate changes in Serbia. The paper presents the way the Serbian Government approaches the Kyoto Protocol, following an approach similar to the EU and the accepted policy of the world. Legislation presented at the beginning of the paper shows the results of these activities. A short overview of climate change impacts on certain business sectors is presented later in the paper. The greatest challenge for Serbia is to find an appropriate response to frequent hydrometeorological events which impact the health and the safety of population and society as a whole. Despite the negative impacts of the global economic crisis, it is expected that the international community will be a confident partner for the Serbian Government in the future as it was many times before.

Vesela Radovic

Chapter 10. Megacities: Urban Environment, Air Pollution, Climate Change and Human Health Interactions

Integrated multi-scale modelling concept of urban environment, air ­pollution, climate change and human health interactions for megacities and overview of integrated modelling frameworks realized in European projects: current MEGAPOLI and previous FUMAPEX, as well as Danish CEEH and European Enviro-RISKS projects, are described in this paper.

Alexander Baklanov

Chapter 11. Climate Change Meets Urban Environment

The effects of global warming permeate to local scales in numerous ways, and at times the adverse effects of global change are amplified by urban anthropogenic activities. These local climate influences, however, have not received due attention as current climate discourse mainly focuses on global scales. In this paper, a brief overview is presented on how urban areas bear the brunt of global climate change, in particular, how such climatic signals as sea level rise, desertification, adjustment of hydrological cycle and enhanced cloud cover can have significant repercussions on local climate, thus raising human health and national security concerns. The reduction of diurnal temperature range (DTR) with global warming and its further amplification with urbanization are used as examples to illustrate local impacts of climate change. The possible amplification of urban heat island may even lead to local meteorological regime shifts, which have an important bearing on sustainability of cities. Meteorological variables are related to air pollution, and the relationship between particulate matter and meteorological variables in Phoenix area is used to illustrate possible relationships between human health and climate change.

Harindra Joseph S. Fernando, R. Dimitrova, S. Sentic

Chapter 12. Future Heat Waves over Paris Metropolitan Area

The aim of this study is to analyse urban heat wave events in present climate (1961–1990) and their evolution in a changing future climate (2021–2050, 2071–2100). We used daily observations of temperature from stations in Paris, climate model projections following three SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) and issued from several regional climate models. A heat wave is detected within observed or simulated time-series by a peak, when temperatures exceed the 99.9th percentile. Its duration is determined by all adjacent days to this peak. Events are extracted, then validated within observations and 12 climatic simulations. Over 2071–2100, we count 3.5, 3.8 and 2.1 events per year for A2, A1B and B1 scenario respectively, using one climate model. The ten A1B climate models simulate 1.5 heat waves per year on average. Despite a large variability, HW characteristics show an overall trend to an increase in duration and intensity, which is more pronounced at night-time. Over 2071–2100, extreme events have night-time temperatures of 28°C for A1B (against 20°C in the 2003 heat wave) ; day-time temperatures of 45°C for A1B (against 39°C in 2003) and last up to 1 month.

A. L. Beaulant, A. Lemonsu, S. Somot, V. Masson

Chapter 13. The Height of the Atmospheric Planetary Boundary layer: State of the Art and New Development

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is defined as the strongly turbulent atmospheric layer immediately affected by dynamic, thermal and other interactions with the Earth’s surface. It essentially differs in nature from the weakly turbulent and persistently stably-stratified free atmosphere. To some extent the PBL upper boundary acts as a lid preventing dust, aerosols, gases and any other admixtures released from ground sources to efficiently penetrate upwards, thus blocking them within the PBL. It is conceivable that the air pollution is especially hazardous when associated with shallow PBLs. Likewise, positive or negative perturbations of the heat budget at the Earth’s surface immediately impact on the PBL and are almost completely absorbed within the PBL through the very efficient mechanism of turbulent heat transfer. Determination of the PBL height is, therefore, an important aspect of modelling and prediction of air-pollution events and extreme colds or heats dangerous for human health. Because of high sensitivity of shallow PBLs to thermal impacts, variability of the PBL height is an important factor controlling fine features of climate change. Deep convective PBLs strongly impact on the climate system through turbulent entrainment (“ventilation”) at the PBL upper boundary, and thus essentially control development of convective clouds. This paper outlines modern knowledge about physical mechanisms and theoretical models of the PBL height and turbulent entrainment, and presents an advanced model of geophysical convective PBL.

Sergej S. Zilitinkevich

Chapter 14. The Influence of Meteorological Conditions on Fine Particle (PM1.0) Levels in the Urban Atmosphere

It is well known that airborne particulate matter (PM) can damage human health and affect climate. Fine particles with an aerodynamic diameter less than 1 μm (PM1.0) are generally more harmful to humans compared to coarser particles. This study investigates the relationships between 1-min average PM1.0 mass concentrations and atmospheric conditions at the same time-scale. Concentrations were measured by the DUSTTRAK

TM

Aerosol Monitor, which was located in Zagreb’s residential quarter, far from major pollution sources. The monitor was placed at a height of 15.8 m above the ground. While the influences of temperature and global radiation remained unclear, it was shown that PM1.0 levels depended on horizontal and vertical wind speed, air pressure and relative humidity. Thus, climate change may at least locally modify PM pollution levels and accordingly affect human health. Finally, results suggested that a nearby road, at a distance of approximately 100 m, with weak to moderate traffic did not affect PM1.0 levels. Instead, recorded concentrations mainly originated from other urban sources that were several kilometers away.

Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić

Chapter 15. Modelling of Heavy Metals: Study of Impacts Due to Climate Change

Heavy metals are a category of pollutants recognized as dangerous to human health and human exposure occurs through all environmental media. Since metals are naturally occurring chemicals that do not break down in the environment and can accumulate in soils, water and the sediments of lakes and rivers, it is important to evaluate the contribution of natural emission sources in the environment. Owing to climate change, the water content in soil is decreased while evapotranspiration is increased as a consequence the higher resuspension of soil dust particles. In this work, a modelling study of heavy metals was performed in order to assess the levels of heavy metals pollution, particularly lead, in Croatia and to estimate the effects of an increase in lead natural emissions due to climate change.

Heavy metals are emitted into environment mainly as a result of anthropogenic activities, complemented by naturally occurring chemicals in the environment; therefore it is important to evaluate the contribution and patterns of their natural emissions. The main paths for heavy metals through the atmosphere and water are dispersion and deposition processes leading to the accumulation in soils and water sediments, which, consequently, become reservoirs for secondary, semi-natural release of heavy metals back to the atmosphere and other media. Both the strength and spatial patterns of this release naturally depend on climate conditions and change accordingly. A rise in temperature causes soil water content to decrease while evapotranspiration increases, and thus impacts resuspension of soil dust particles. In this study, modelling of heavy metals, particularly lead, was performed in order to assess the influence of climate-sensitive variables and resuspension of heavy metals to the levels and their distribution in Croatia.

Amela. Jeričević, I. Ilyin, S. Vidič

Chapter 16. New Atmospheric Pollution Indicators and Tools to Support Policy for Environmental Sustainable Development

Air pollution, in particular high air pollution events, increase the effects of climate change on human health. It is necessary to undertake actions to prevent and minimize these adverse events with the aim of supporting a policy for environmental sustainable development.

For this purpose science, industry and institutions became allies through an applied research project in the valley of Biferno on the Adriatic Sea shore in central Italy. The purpose of this project is to search for new atmospheric pollution indicators and tools to support a policy for environmental sustainable development, useful to tackle climate change. The EART (ENEA Atmosphere Research Team) of ENEA (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development) has, with the cooperation of American, European and Russian research groups leading at the environmental level, investigated an industrial site through the concept of a “meteodiffusivity scenario”. Meteodiffusivity is based on a new way to think of air quality, as the result of a strong interaction between emissions and local meteorological climatic factors. The micrometeorological parameters, and especially the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) depth, modulate the airborne concentration of emissions, causing their build up or dispersion, depending on the atmospheric turbulence.

Generally high air pollution events are affected by a low PBL height that prevents pollutant dispersion. High air pollution events frequently occur in anthropogenically polluted areas despite the fact that atmospheric emissions are checked and do not exceed legal limits. The meteodiffusivity method of analysis enables a more accurate interpretation of how the air quality of a place reacts to the pressure caused by anthropogenic activities, in order to try and mitigate the impact on the environment and human health. In fact, the control of local energy flows can reduce the negative effects of air quality on the land and climate. This innovative approach is based on new meteorological indicators and information tools in order to contribute to a development shift, from uncontrolled expansion to sustainability. The case study presented here is a project which was realized in lower Molise in the Biferno Valley, near Termoli (Molise Region, Italy), where a large manufacturing district coexists with a former fishing village that is now a well known tourist resort. The project execution and results were published in a volume entitled “Research on Environmental Management in a Coastal Industrial Area: new indicators and tools for air quality and river investigations” ISBN 9788860818997 and edited by Armando publisher

s

. The book was presented for the first time at the conference NATO ARW “Climate Change, Human Health and National Security” in Dubrovnik from 28 to 30 April 2011. It is also available as a CD ROM.

Maria Cristina Mammarella, Giovanni Grandoni, Pasquale Fedele, Harindra J. S. Fernando, Silvana Di Sabatino, Laura S. Leo, Marco Cacciani, Giampietro Casasanta, Ann Dallman

Chapter 17. Numerical and Experimental Simulations of Local Winds

Local circulation dynamics have a strong impact on the climate evolution as they contribute to the redistribution of energy and scalars from the regional to the global scale. Mesoscale phenomena are driven by surface heat, momentum and moisture fluxes; the intensity and distribution of these forcings can be significantly modified by the urbanization. The present work describes numerical and experimental investigations of the flow over an urban area. The circulation arises from the temperature difference between the city and the suburbs, called the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. The three-dimensional non-hydrostatic meteorological model WRF has been used to perform Large Eddy Simulations of the UHI flow and its evolution during the complete day-night cycle. The domain is assumed to be planar in the cross-flow direction and periodic lateral boundary conditions are imposed. The laboratory experiments are conducted in a thermally controlled water tank to simulate an initially stably stratified environment and an electric heater solidal with the bottom of the tank mimics the urban site. Image analysis techniques have been used to reconstruct the velocity fields, while temperatures are acquired by multiple thermocouple arrays. The high resolution of both the numerical and laboratory experiments allows a detailed characterization of both mean and turbulent properties of the UHI circulation. Present numerical and laboratory results, normalized by similarity theory scaling parameters, compare well with literature data.

Franco Catalano, Antonio Cenedese, Serena Falasca, Monica Moroni

Chapter 18. Wind Effects on Man-Made Structures in a World with a Changing Climate

A number of epidemiologic studies reported correlations between ambient concentrations of air pollution and adverse health effects, such as respiratory and heart diseases, premature mortality, premature delivery and low birth weight. Apart from indirect effects of the wind on health, humans can experience ‘mechanical’ wind-induced injuries due to collapsing engineering structures, windborne debris, and wind-induced traffic accidents. In this study, basic features of the wind/structure interaction were briefly addressed and some effects of a changing climate on local wind characteristics were reported. Therefore, wind-tunnel simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer flow indicate the applicability of truncated vortex generators in reproducing the wind characteristics in the lower atmosphere. A loading of a vehicle exposed to cross-wind gusting gives evidence about the aerodynamics significantly different than on vehicles exposed to ‘standard’ atmospheric turbulence.

Hrvoje Kozmar, Zvjezdana Bencetić Klaić

Chapter 19. Remote Sensing and Public Health Issues in a Changing Climate and Environment: The Rift Valley Fever Case

Climate and environment are changing rapidly. We must then cope with new challenges posed by new and re-emerging diseases, innovate beyond benches and bedsides, i.e., using high resolution technology, and re-invent health politics and multidisciplinary management, all in a climate change context. The new concept of

tele-epidemiology

is presented. The detailed conceptual approach (CA) associated with Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal (monitored from space) is given. Ponds were detected by using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Data on rainfall events obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (NASA/JAXA) were combined with in-situ data. Localization of vulnerable and parked hosts (from QuickBird satellite) is also used. The dynamic spatio-temporal distribution and aggressiveness of one of the main RVF vectors,

Aedes vexans

, were based on total rainfall amounts, pond dynamics and entomological observations. Detailed risks zones (hazards and vulnerability) are expressed in percentages of parks where animals are submitted to mosquitoes’ bites. This CA, which simply relies upon rainfall distribution evaluated from space, is meant to contribute to the implementation of an operational early warning system (EWS) for RVF or RVFews. It is based on environmental risks associated with climatic and environmental changing conditions: natural and anthropogenic. It is to be applied to other diseases and elsewhere. This is particularly true in new places where vectors have been rapidly adapting recently whilst viruses circulate from an ever moving and increasing population.

Y. M. Tourre, J.-P. Lacaux, C. Vignolles, M. Lafaye

Chapter 20. The Effect of Heat Stress on Daily Mortality in Tel Aviv, Israel

Weather-related morbidity and mortality have attracted renewed interest because of climate changes. During a multi-center project conducted within Europe, the apparent threshold temperature where the heat effect changes was found to be different for Mediterranean and north continental cities. In this paper, we study the V/J relationship between heat stress (Discomfort Index-DI) and mortality in Tel Aviv, a city within Asia, using daily data of mortality counts and meteorological variables for the period 1/1/2000–31/12/2004; using a Poisson regression and accounting for confounders. The relationship between the discomfort index DI (lag 0–3) and log mortality rates was J shaped for Tel Aviv. The DI threshold was found to be 29.3 (90% CrI = 28.0–30.7). Above this threshold, a 1 unit increase in DI was found to be associated with increased mortality of 3.72% (90% CrI = −0.23 to 8.72). NO

2

was also found to have a significant effect on mortality. As global warming continues, even though there exists a high awareness amongst the Israeli population of the negative health impacts of heat, there is still a vital need to develop local policies to mitigate heat-related deaths.

C. Peretz, A. Biggeri, P. Alpert, M. Baccini

Chapter 21. West Nile Virus Eruptions in Summer 2010 – What Is the Possible Linkage with Climate Change?

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. Many factors impact the transmission, epidemiology and geographic distribution of WNV. However, climate and especially warm conditions were found to be crucially important causes that instigated the outbreaks. New areas of the WNV transmission with the occurrence of human cases have been identified during summer 2010. According to the European Center for Disease Control (ECDC), infections by WNV have occurred in Greece, Romania, Hungary, Israel, Russia, and Italy. The precise reasons for the existence of the current outbreak of WNV infection in humans in Eurasia remain unclear. However, climatic factors are believed to have increased the abundance of mosquitoes and shortened the transmission cycle in the vectors, leading to increased human cases.

Mean monthly temperature and precipitation data show the extreme behavior of the air temperature as well as the rainfall patterns during summer 2010 in selected areas where WNV circulation occurred – Macedonia (Greece), Western Turkey, Southeastern Romania and Southwestern Russia. The results show that the warming tendency during the hot season over recent years continued in summer 2010. Moreover, the air temperature was extremely higher than normal in the selected study sites. This might have an impact on the risk for WNV outbreaks.

As for the precipitation, the picture is more complex. The increase in WNV cases could be related to the unusual increase in the rainfall amounts during that summer (Macedonia and SE Romania). Alternatively, WNV may increases after an extreme dry period (SW Russia), since standing water pools become richer in organic materials.

During the summer of 2010, Eurasia had to deal with exceptional heat-waves while a record of high numbers of extreme warm nights had been documented in parts of south-eastern Europe.

In summary, although the WNV transmission is multi-factorial, it seems that the increase in the summer temperature should be considered when evaluating the risk of WNV transmission.

Shlomit Paz

Chapter 22. Global Water Security: Engineering the Future

The paper introduces some of the general challenges of global water security, particularly in poverty stricken regions such as Africa, and highlights the likely global impact of climate change, increasing pollution and population growth etc. on water resources, as outlined in recent studies. The nexus between water, food and energy is introduced, along with the concept of virtual water and the impact of the water footprint and the need for society, industry and governments to become more conscious of the water footprint, alongside the carbon footprint. Various practical solutions to enhancing security of supply are introduced and discussed, such as desalination and integrated water management in the form of ‘Cloud to Coast’, together with global actions needed. Finally, some water security challenges and opportunities for developed countries, such as the UK, are discussed, particularly with regard to the need to price water appropriately and the need to appreciate that the price of water should cover more than just the cost of delivery to the home. The paper concludes with the urgent need to raise the profile of global water security at all levels of society and through international bodies, for the benefit of humanity worldwide.

Roger A. Falconer, Michael R. Norton

Chapter 23. Assessing Local Water Conflicts: Understanding the Links Between Water, Marginalisation and Climate Change

The discourse and academic work around water conflicts is often focused on international water conflicts. As a consequence, although local water conflicts are common and affect the everyday life of many communities around the world, they are frequently overlooked. Analytical tools and trainings on local water conflicts are thus scarce. The Water, Crisis and Climate Change Assessment Framework (WACCAF) helps to close this gap. It guides users through an analysis of the different factors that play a role in local water conflicts. The goal of this tool is to better understand the conflict potential of competition around water resources, in order to prevent a water crisis from escalating into a conflict. It can also help to understand an existing water conflict and identify ways to solve it. The WACCAF specifically focuses on how the interaction between marginalisation and unequal water access and availability can create conflict (potential). These findings are then placed in wider social and historical contexts by looking at past conflicts and general marginalisation patterns in society. The analysis is completed by understanding the factors that decrease the potential for conflict, in particular cooperation and conflict resolution mechanisms.

Lukas Ruettinger

Chapter 24. Climate Change Impacts on River Catchment Hydrology Using Dynamic Downscaling of Global Climate Models

Impacts from climate change may affect vital factors of environmental and human security related to water uses, such as domestic water supply, hydropower and industrial production, agricultural irrigation and ecosystems needs. This is particularly important in regions with arid and semi-arid climates like the Mediterranean and the South Eastern Europe. In this presentation the coupling of different climate change models with a distributed hydrological model was developed in order to explore the impact of climate change on water resources at the river basin level. Firstly, the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHAM5/MPIOM, developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, was used to provide boundary conditions of the regional climate model CLM. Simulation results at 6 hourly intervals were provided for Europe, using a spatial grid resolution of 20 × 20 km. Secondly, the spatially distributed hydrological model MODSUR-NEIGE (MODélisation des transferts de SURface en présence de NEIGE, in French), developed by the School of Mines, Paris, France, was used for dynamically downscaling boundary conditions provided by CLM over a spatially variable grid ranging between 250 m and 2 km in size. In this way temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration distributions were adapted to local conditions, such as the river watershed relief, local geology and land uses. The methodology is illustrated for the Mesta/Nestos river basin, which is shared between Bulgaria and Greece and is part of the worldwide UNESCO-HELP initiative. The upstream northern part of the basin (Mesta) is in Bulgaria, and the downstream part (Nestos) is in Greece. Impacts from climate change have resulted in a significant reduction of river flow with serious consequences for hydropower production and agricultural activities mainly near the Nestos delta.

Ch. Skoulikaris, J. Ganoulis

Chapter 25. Implications of Climate Change for Marginal and Inland Seas

As confined water bodies, the semi-enclosed and inland seas are particularly vulnerable to the global change. The climate change trends observed in the marginal seas reflect a spectrum of interactions between the ocean, atmosphere and the continents, and this is why their responses are generally more complex than those characteristic for the open ocean. In this article, we start with the ongoing climate change processes in the deep ocean versus the semi-enclosed and marginal seas, and then discuss case studies based on the recent data collected from marginal or inland seas, namely, the Black Sea, the Kara Sea, and the Aral Sea. We show, in particular, that over much of the last few decades, the sea surface temperature changes in the Black Sea had the opposite sign compared to those in the world ocean. The sea temperature within the uppermost oxygenized layer of the Black Sea exhibited significant correlation with North Atlantic Oscillation. Furthermore, we show that in the Kara Sea, which is poorly covered by observational data, pH is likely to have been growing during the last two decades, in contrast with the global acidification trends, possibly, in connection with the long-term variability of fluvial runoffs from Yenisey and Ob rivers modulated by wind forcing. The Aral Sea represents an extreme response of a large inland water body to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. The Aral Sea level has dropped over 26 m since 1960, and its volume decreased by a factor of 10. The desiccation was primarily caused by anthropogenic diversions of water from the tributary rivers, but about 30% of the level drop was associated with climate change at the regional scale. We discuss the ongoing changes in the ionic salt composition of the Aral Sea water accompanying the desiccation.

Peter O. Zavialov, Andrey G. Zatsepin, Peter N. Makkaveev, Alexander Kazmin, Vyacheslav V. Kremenetskiy, Vladimir B. Piotuh

Chapter 26. Orographic Precipitation Simulated by a Super-High Resolution Global Climate Model over the Middle East

A super-high resolution (20 km) global climate model data and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data were employed to investigate the seasonal precipitation regime over the Middle East, and the main research focus is on the orographic rainfall effects over a large part of Turkey by using these two different datasets.

Results show that the 20 km regional precipitation over high mountains behaves differently in the 20 km resolution as compared to the CRU data for the time period of 1979–2002. The orographic precipitation over Turkey simulated by the 20 km GCM shows that, the amount of seasonal precipitation has significant relation with the altitude, which is not as pronounced in the CRU data. The area mean precipitation from the 20 km GCM is higher than that of CRU both for the wet and the dry seasons, with the mean value of about 25% and 39% higher, respectively. Results suggest that the higher resolution model is essential, especially in capturing the orographic precipitation over high altitudes.

Pinhas Alpert, Fengjun Jin, Haim Shafir

Chapter 27. How Effective Could ‘Landscape Management’ Tool Address Mitigation of Cultural and Natural Threats on Coastal Wetlands System?

This paper identifies landscape management as a tool for mitigating natural and cultural challenges of climate change, human and environmental security in the context of Gediz Delta (Management Plan) while scrutinizing the management plan for the ecological and socio-economic sustainability of the delta. Thus landscape management acts as a mechanism for strengthening the efficacy of the plan in the years ahead.

To this end, implementation of the management plan should accommodate thoroughly landscape management in legal, administrative and technical frameworks for the benefits of a self-sustainable coastal wetlands’ system across the delta.

Adnan Kaplan

Chapter 28. Statistical Eco-Indexes for Estimation of Changes in Ecological State of Natural Waters Due to Anthropogenic Impact and Climate Change

Natural waters are characterised by numerous hydrochemical and hydrobiological parameters that strongly vary in space and time. To highlight the basic features of ecological state of a water body, and to trace its temporal evolution, we integrate information on different parameters measured in different units into statistical integral eco-indexes. The method offers the possibility to reliably assess water quality in water bodies or parts thereof. In this paper, the method involved is presented in terms of sanitary-microbiological and hydrochemical indexes by the example of the River Biferno (Molise, Italy). Eco-indexes are proved to be efficient and reliable instruments for tracing the state of the water ecosystem as dependent on anthropogenic and natural impacts, including those caused by climatic factors. They can be used, in particular, for analysing data from long-term observations – to detect historical trends and to give statistical forecasts.

Iryna Kh. Bashmakova, Alexander Smirnov

Chapter 29. On Some Issues of the Anthropogenic Transformation of Water Ecosystems (Case Study of Lake Sevan)

This paper discusses the influence of economic development in the basin of Lake Sevan. It shows that the decrease of lake’s water level has led to changes in the hydrological regime. The development in the basin has caused disruption of thermal and hydro-chemical regimes of the lake, deteriorating the water quality and increasing the water turbidity. The circulation of biological and chemical species has changed as well.

Studies of the chemical composition of the water were launched at the end of the nineteenth century, and the first salt balance was determined in the 1930s. According to routine observations, 1 l of the lake’s water contains about 0.7 g salt in ionic form, which has changed by about 5–10% as a result of the decrease of water level. There have been changes in the general mineralization that are related to the decrease of the water level and the magnitude of its flow.

In 1928–1930, well before artificial changes to the lake’s water level were realized, the total mineralization was 718.4 mg/l, while today it is 673 mg/l (1999–2002). The decrease of total general mineralization of lake water is strongly related to the massive outflow of salty water, which removed salts that have been accumulating in the lake for centuries.

The studies of separate components of Lake Sevan balance show that under conditions of the global climate warming, evaporation from the lake’s surface may reach up to 145 × 10

6

m

3

/annum. Averaging of the consequences of possible climate change on river runoff points at the possible decrease of water resources of the lake’s basin by

2.51% by the end of the first half of the twenty-first century.

It is hard to predict the future developments of these processes. However, the issue of Lake Sevan is not entirely settled as the ecosystem of the lake is damaged and is undergoing the process of eutrophication. The flora and fauna of the water and coast have undergone serious and irreversible changes.

Trahel Vardanian

Chapter 30. Effects of Climate Change on Egypt’s Water Supply

Egypt is plagued by a water shortage as well as water resource management issues. Egypt, as a developing country, is at particular risk for being unable to provide clean drinking water and adequate sanitation systems for citizens, ensure sustainable irrigation, use hydropower to produce electricity, and maintain diverse ecosystems. The Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency report notes that Egypt’s fresh water budget runs a deficit: supply, which comes from the Nile (95%), precipitation (3.5%) and ground water (1.5%) is less than current demand. Egypt has available fresh water reserves of 58 billion m

3

, but an annual water demand of about 77 billion m

3

. This deficit is met through recycling treated sewage and industrial effluent (four billion m

3

) and recycling used water, mainly from agriculture (eight billion m

3

). An additional four billion m

3

is extracted from the shallow aquifer and three billion m

3

comes from the Al Salam Canal Project. Egypt is therefore in a situation where it must plan for several different future scenarios, mostly negative, if climate change results in increased temperatures and decreased precipitation levels. Even in the absence of any negative effects of climate change, Egypt is dealing with a steady growth in population, increased urbanization, and riparian neighbors with their own plans for securing future water needs. All of these will require Egypt to put water resource planning as a top national security priority.

Gamal Elsaeed

Chapter 31. Relative Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Jordan

The relative impacts of anthropogenic forcings and climate change on water stress in Jordan during the period 2030–2050 are investigated. The more likely figure for the population of Jordan based on natural growth only would be between 13 and 15 million people by 2050. Given this conservative projection, annual water needs for domestic purposes alone would be between 700 and 800 million m

3

, with the current level of water consumption. This quantity is equivalent to the total renewable water resources of the entire country even without a climate change. A rise in temperature and a drop in total precipitation or both as suggested by Global Climate Models would add another dimension to the water crisis in Jordan. A climate change will lead to a reduction in renewable water resources by 20–40%. Thus, there is a composed freshwater shortage risk caused by population growth and climate change. The outcome would be a serious water deficit risk that produces a permanent water supply crisis in this politically volatile and environmentally fragile region. Alternative freshwater sources must be sought (e.g., Red Sea-Dead Sea conveyance project; sharing freshwater resources) to meet the growing freshwater demands due to population growth and the anticipated blue water decline caused by warmer and drier climatic conditions.

Ibrahim M. Oroud

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