NCAA basketball: when does recruiting talent translate into wins for power conferences?

NCAA men’s basketball teams are spending an increasing amount of money on recruiting expenditures in an effort to win more games. We examine the recruiting quality of both freshmen and returning players to determine the impact of recruiting on a power conference team’s success. In particular, we identify the point at which players of different recruiting quality begin to contribute to a team’s success and estimate the impact of returning players by year and position. We find that elite freshmen guards are the only position that immediately impacts a team’s success, while forwards and centers need one or more seasons to develop into a player that generates wins for his team. We conclude by noting how these results may inform coaches regarding the makeup of talent and positions on their roster.