Next Civilization

Inhaltsverzeichnis

1. Frontmatter

2. Chapter 1. Introduction: The Digital Society

   A Better Future or Worse? Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   Smartphones, tablets and app stores with almost unlimited possibilities have become symbols of the digital revolution. However, while these innovations make our lives more comfortable and interesting, they herald a much more fundamental transformation. Advances in digital technology now affect the way we learn, decide, and interact. By harnessing “Big Data”, the “Internet of Things”, and Artificial Intelligence (AI), we can create smart homes and smart cities. But this is only the tip of the iceberg—our entire economy and society will also dramatically change. What are the opportunities and risks related to this? Are we heading towards digital slavery or freedom? What forces are at work and how can we use them to create a smarter society? This book offers a guided tour through the new, digital age ahead.

3. Chapter 2. Complexity Time Bomb

   When Systems Get Out of Control Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   The digital revolution produces more data, more speed, more connectivity, and more complexity. Besides creating new opportunities, how will this change our economy and our societies? Will it make our increasingly interdependent systems easier to control? Or are we heading towards a systemic collapse? In order to figure out what needs to be done to fix the world’s ills, we must explore why things, as they currently stand, go wrong. The question is, why haven’t we learned how to deal with them yet?

4. Chapter 3. Social Forces

   Revealing the Causes of Success and Disaster Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   Complex systems can behave in unpredictable ways and cause a lot of trouble. But it doesn’t have to be like this. Their behavior depends on the interactions between the system components, the strength of these interactions, and the institutional settings. Consequently, for a complex system to work well, it is important to understand the factors that drive its dynamics. In physics, many phenomena have been understood in terms of forces, which can be measured by suitable procedures. In a similar way, the success or failure of socio-economic systems depends on hidden forces, too. Thanks to new data about our world we can now measure the forces driving socio-economic change. This will allow us to act more successfully in future.

5. Chapter 4. Google as God?

   The Dangerous Promise of Big Data Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   Almost every activity in the world now leaves numerous digital traces. What if a “wise king” or “benevolent dictator” had real-time access to all the data in the world? Could he take perfect decisions to benefit society? Could he predict the future? Could he control the world’s path? What would be the limits and side effects of such an approach? Or is the attempt to create a digital “crystal ball” to predict the future and a digital “magic wand” to control the world a dangerous dream?

6. Chapter 5. Genie Out of the Bottle

   Major Socio-economic Shifts Ahead Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   The technological forces unleashed by the “digital revolution” will fundamentally transform our economy and society within a very short time. We need to prepare ourselves for this transformation and the new era to come. In fact, we may just have 20 or 30 years to adapt. Even though we may dislike such socio-economic change, we will probably not be able to stop it. In order to be able to cope with surprises, we need to design our socio-economic systems in a resilient way. Moreover, if we learn to understand the fundamentally new logic of our digital future and harness the driving forces behind it for our purposes, we can benefit tremendously and fix a number of long-standing problems that humanity has struggled with!

7. Chapter 6. A Planetary-Scale Threat

   How Much Worse Can it Get? Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   We have had so much hopes in the positive potentials of the digital revolution, and the biggest threat most people can imagine is an Internet outage or a hacking attack. However, it appears that Social Media—once seen as an opportunity for fairer, participatory society—have (been) turned into promoters of fake news and hate speech. It also turns out that Big Data has empowered businesses and secret services, while in comparison citizens have probably lost power. Exposed to an attention economy and surveillance capitalism, people may become objects of algorithms in an increasingly data-driven and AI-controlled world. Therefore, the question is: After the digital “singularity”, will we be “Gods” in a “digital paradise”—or submitted to a superintelligent system, without fundamental rights, human dignity, and freedom? It is time for an intermediate summary and assessment.

8. Chapter 7. Digitally Assisted Self-Organization

   Making the Invisible Hand Work Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   Complex dynamical systems are difficult to control because they have a natural tendency to self-organize, driven by the inherent forces between their system components. But self-organization may have favorable results, too, depending on how the system’s components interact. By slightly modifying these interactions—usually interfering at the right moment in a minimally invasive way—one can produce desirable outcomes, which even resist moderate disruptions. Such assisted self-organization is based on distributed control. Rather than imposing a certain system behavior in a top-down way, assisted self-organization reaches efficient results by using the hidden forces, which determine the natural behavior of a complex dynamical system.

9. Chapter 8. How Society Works

   Social Order by Self-Organization Dirk Helbing

   Abstract

   We often celebrate the introduction of laws and regulations as historic milestones of our society. But over-regulation has become unaffordable, and better approaches are needed. Self-organization is the solution. As I will demonstrate, it is the basis of social order, even though it builds upon simple social mechanisms. These mechanisms have evolved as a result of thousands of years of societal innovation and determine whether a civilization succeeds or fails. Currently, many people oppose globalization because traditional social mechanisms fail to create cooperation and social order in a world, which is increasingly characterized by non-local interactions. However, in this chapter I will show that there are some reputation- and merit-based social mechanisms, which can still stabilize a globalized world, if well designed.

10. Chapter 9. Networked Minds

    Where Human Evolution Is Heading Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    Having studied the technological and social forces shaping our societies, we now turn to the evolutionary forces. Among the millions of species on earth, humans are truly unique. What is the recipe for our success? What makes us special? How do we make decisions? How will we evolve? I argue that the particular combination of social abilities, diversity and our hunger for information drives societies and their cultural evolution at a speed, which is a thousand times faster than biological evolution! In fact, humans are curious by nature—we are a social, information-driven species. And that is why the explosion in the data volume and processing capacity will transform our societies more fundamentally than any other technology in the past.

11. Chapter 10. The Economy 4.0

    A Participatory Market Society Is Born Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    The invention of the steam engine turned the agricultural society—the “Economy 1.0”—into an industrial society—the “Economy 2.0”. Later, the spread of education enabled the service society—the “Economy 3.0”. Nowadays, the pervasiveness of digital technologies is driving another technological revolution, which is creating the “Economy 4.0”, which I call the Participatory Market Society. This society is characterized by the ubiquity of information, bottom-up participation, “co-creation”, self-organization and collective intelligence as new organizational principles. We will also see more personalized products and services and an increased engagement in a serious and fair partnership with citizens, users, and customers. Finally, the spread of “projects”, empowered by social collaboration platforms, will enable more flexible and efficient forms of production and services.

12. Chapter 11. The Self-Organizing Society

    Taking the Future in Our Hands Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    We are faced with the growing complexity and diversity of an increasingly interdependent world. But Big Data and Artificial Intelligence, while potentially powerful and useful, are not a panacea for our problems. The idea of super-governments or multi-national companies running the world like a perfect clockwork is doomed to fail. Therefore, we must learn to turn complexity and diversity into our advantage. This requires a distributed governance approach. Now, the “Internet of Things” enables self-organizing systems, which can create socio-economic order and many benefits from the bottom-up. While solving the problem of over-regulation, this can harness diversity and foster innovation, collective intelligence, societal resilience, and individual happiness.

13. Chapter 12. Digital Democracy (Democracy 2.0, 3.0, 4.0)

    How to Make It Work? Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    Is democracy outdated, is it broken? Many people feel the current political system will not work much longer. Suddenly, we are faced with unsustainability, mass migration, terror, climate emergency, a financial system at the verge of collapse, and “Corona emergency”. Some have suggested it is time for a data-driven digital state, and China would lead the way. Eventually, however, people have realized that this might establish a global technological totalitarianism. They understand that a data-driven and AI-controlled society could easily end in a data dictatorship, where optimization will overrule more and more freedoms. So, how to prevent that the world would eventually be run like a digitally optimized “Animal Farm”? How to upgrade democracies with digital means? Here, I suggest to build participatory platforms that support collective intelligence, and to engage in open formats such as “City Olympics”, which combine competition with cooperation and bottom-up engagement.

14. Chapter 13. Democratic Capitalism

    Why Not Give It a Try? Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    Democracy and capitalism have been struggling with each other for some time. Wouldn’t it be possible to invent a new, digitally upgraded kind of capitalism that is aligned with the values and foundations of democracies? How would such a capitalism look like? What would be its elements? In this connection, I will discuss the monetary, financial, and taxation system. I will also propose investment premiums, to allow for bottom-up projects. Last but not least, I will introduce a socio-ecological finance system, which would combine measurements of environmental impacts with new incentive systems. What I have in mind is a multi-dimensional real-time feedback system, which would allow one to manage complex systems more successfully, or even enable revolutionary self-organizing and self-regulating systems.

15. Chapter 14. Summary: What’s Wrong with AI?

    Humanistic Technology Needed! Dirk Helbing

    Abstract

    The end is near… We have arrived at the end of the book, and it is time to summarize our findings and to wrap up. The great potentials of the digital revolution cannot be denied. However, we need to think twice how to use this technology, so it will be at our service and not endanger what humanity has built over centuries. The lessons of wars and revolutions should not be forgotten. We need technology that empowers people, while helping us to coordinate our actions, so conflict is avoided. In this book, I have presented quite a lot of ideas how this can be done, and how to avoid the dark sides of the digital revolution. Therefore, I hope we will soon see humanistic digital technology that helps us live in harmony with nature.

16. Backmatter