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2012 | Buch

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Opinion Polls and the Media

Reflecting and Shaping Public Opinion

herausgegeben von: Christina Holtz-Bacha, Jesper Strömbäck

Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK

Enthalten in: Springer Professional "Wirtschaft+Technik" , Springer Professional "Wirtschaft" , Springer Professional "Technik"

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Über dieses Buch

A collection of original essays drawing together international research on the media's use of opinion polls, covering both theoretical and methodological approaches.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

The Media and Their Use of Opinion Polls: Reflecting and Shaping Public Opinion

1. The Media and Their Use of Opinion Polls: Reflecting and Shaping Public Opinion

Abstract

The histories of mass media, public opinion and opinion polling have always been closely intertwined. Before the invention of scientific opinion polling, both political leaders and lay people used media coverage as a proxy for public opinion, while in addition and after the invention of opinion polling, the media’s use of opinion polls has become an important part of their coverage of politics in general and of election campaigns in particular.

Jesper Strömbäck

Theoretical and Methodological Approaches

Frontmatter

2. Public Opinion and Opinion Polling: Contradictions and Controversies

Abstract

Many philosophers have discussed the nature of human opinions at least since Ancient Greece, but the concept of ‘public opinion’ was not in use until the eighteenth century. It was missing despite the fact that the processes and phenomena that are at least related to, if not constitutive of, public opinion – judging by the historical records – clearly existed, such as narratives about the rulers who have, disguised as ordinary people, mingled with the crowd to hear what people think about their government.

Slavko Splichal

3. Regulation of Opinion Polls: A Comparative Perspective

Abstract

If we want to understand the complicated relationship between public opinion research and government authorities, we should start by considering the relationship between survey researchers and journalists. The state, the media and survey research all find themselves in a tense threeway relationship, where each is dependent on the others and each views the other two as a potential threat. The great German publisher Rudolf Augstein once referred to survey research as journalism’s ‘ravenous baby brother’, in that it attempts to break the media’s monopoly on interpreting the current social conditions, thereby devouring a piece of the media’s right to tell the public how the world allegedly looks. ‘We opinion journalists’, he remarked, ‘had gotten used to speaking for entire groups and segments of the population, even for our readership as a whole, and we were certainly prepared – albeit somewhat begrudgingly – to be contradicted every four years when the federal elections came around, but not every month or even every week’ (Augstein 1973, XVIII; cf. Noelle-Neumann 1993a, p. 111). Nevertheless, the media use survey research continuously and with increasing intensity: in fact, the media need survey results as they offer information that their users expect but that cannot be obtained reliably from any other sources.

Thomas Petersen

4. Methodological Trends and Controversies in the Media’s Use of Opinion Polls

Abstract

Polls have been an integral part of news coverage for more than 200 years, although scientific polls have been in use for only the last eight decades. Pollsters and news organizations have enjoyed a symbiotic relationship over this time period because of the interest of the pollsters in promoting their commercial business and the interest of news organizations in enhancing their coverage. Over time, polling itself has undergone a number of methodological advances that produced distinctive shifts in how polls are conducted, analyzed and presented. But this marriage of convenience has not been without its problems, often producing controversies in the conduct of the polls and how the media report them.

Michael Traugott

The Media’s Publication of Opinion Polls

Frontmatter

5. Opinion Polls and the Media in Germany: A Productive but Critical Relationship

Abstract

‘Pollsters should say goodbye to trying to influence politics by way of public opinion research, and politicians should not succumb to the temptation to justify their decisions with the help of public opinion research.’ This is what the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said in a speech deliberating about the relationship between public opinion research and politics in early 2010 (Rede der Bundeskanzlerin… 2010). While pointing to the important functions of public opinion research, she also emphasized the challenges with regard to methodology and interpretation, and particularly referred to the problem of error margins.

Christina Holtz-Bacha

6. Opinion Polls and the Media in the United States

Abstract

For all practical purposes, media polls are an American invention, and polls have been reported by the American news media as long ago as the early nineteenth century. Over the last two centuries, media polls have become an increasingly important part of the American political journalistic landscape.

Kathleen A. Frankovic

7. Opinion Polls and the Media in Brazil

Abstract

The year of 1985 saw the end of a 21-year period of military dictatorship and the return to civil government in Brazil. A rather complex process per se, with several constraints imposed by the armed forces, which were still in control of important power resources, it suffered yet another blow with the premature death of president-to-be Tancredo Neves, who was to lead the transition to democracy. In 1988, following nearly two years of intense activity, a constitutional assembly finally concluded the new Constitution. In the following year, a new president was taken to office in a direct election, symbolizing the ‘normalization’ of formal democratic institutions.

Flávia Biroli, Luis Felipe Miguel, Fernanda Ferreira Mota

8. Opinion Polls and the Media in Australia

Abstract

Since 1943, every Australian election has been preceded by published opinion polls. Since 1972, every election has been preceded by at least three companies regularly conducting opinion polls for competing media groups. As early as the 1977 election, Goot and Beed (1979, p. 141) observed that ‘during an election, to talk about politics is to talk about the polls’, while in 2010, Young (2010, p. 186) found that in 2007, 44 per cent of election-related front page newspaper articles and 35 per cent of TV news stories contained some reference to opinion polls, a dramatic increase on the previous two elections. The prominent psephologist Peter Brent opined that ‘there must be some countries more obsessed with political opinion polls than Australia, although they’re yet to be found’ (2007, p. 131).

Stephen Mills, Rodney Tiffen

9. Opinion Polls and the Media in South Africa

Abstract

When millions of South Africans lined up to vote in the country’s historic founding 1994 election, public opinion polling seemed set to become a regular and important part of South Africa’s new democratic system. Under apartheid, a flourishing private research sector had emerged and the state had developed a strong opinion research facility to monitor popular views towards political change, though both were usually prevented by a range of political and technical factors from surveying the majority of black South Africans. During the country’s dramatic transition period between 1990 and 1994, a plethora of different organizations sponsored or conducted a wide range of surveys that were also widely covered by the news media. The country’s main liberation movement, the African National Congress (ANC), also became increasingly acquainted with the art of survey research as part of its own transition into a modern political party. Indeed, both published polls and private polls had a number of important political impacts on South Africa’s constitutional negotiations, as well as on the campaign for the crucial 1994 founding election.

Robert Mattes

10. The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: Public Opinion Polling in Taiwan

Abstract

The development of public opinion polling in Taiwan is closely linked to the democratization process that started in the late 1980s. The lifting of martial law in 1987 not only allowed pollsters to work more freely, but also enabled Taiwan’s media to grow and develop an appetite for public opinion data. However, decades of one-party rule by the Kuomintang (KMT, the Nationalist Party) severely stunted the development of polling in Taiwan. The mostly pro-government media did not criticize the authorities, and polls mainly served to document public support for official policies. As a result, polling organizations in Taiwan had to catch up with similar institutions in other industrialized nations throughout the 1990s. A general lack of experience was especially obvious in early political polls, which emerged during the 1993 elections for county magistrates and city mayors.

Lars Willnat, Ven-hwei Lo, Annette Aw

Effects and Consequences of Published Opinion Polls

Frontmatter

11. Attitudinal and Behavioral Consequences of Published Opinion Polls

Abstract

It is a truism to speak of the key normative role that public opinion polls play in contemporary democratic societies. Theorists and practitioners have long extolled how polls inextricably link citizens to their elected officials. Indeed, public opinion polls not only offer citizens a mechanism with which to express their sentiment on key issues of the day but also provide policy makers with information about what their constituents might or might not desire. Citizens may be able to express their views on a particular issue through individual acts such as donating money to a cause or writing a letter to the editor of a local newspaper, but along with voting polls are one of the few opportunities that offer the mass public equal voice. Moreover, the role that polls play in the citizen–policy maker relationship hinges upon their dissemination by the mass media.

Patricia Moy, Eike Mark Rinke

12. Published Opinion Polls, Strategic Party Behavior and News Management

Abstract

The relationship between opinion polls and political leadership is both complex and multifaceted. The same holds true for the relationship between published opinion polls, news management and political leadership. While having acknowledged support by public opinion is a great asset for any political party or politician, signs of weak or declining support are a great liability. The key term here is acknowledged support: it matters less if a political party or politician has actual support if nobody knows about it. In many respects, published opinion polls thus matter more than opinion polls in general.

Jesper Strömbäck

13. Polls, Media and the Political System

Abstract

Across the world, polls have long become a major staple of media reporting. Since the media commission polls themselves, they not only produce their own news but also – intentionally or not – intervene in the political process through the publication of poll results. The political actors – politicians, parties and their advisers – on the other hand, commission polls to help and bolster their decision making and to assess the approval of their policies and their personal popularity. They also use polls to conceive their communication strategies, either for election campaigns or for day-to-day politics. The findings of political polling are often kept secret because they primarily serve strategic purposes. They may nevertheless be passed on to the media in the interest of strategic targeting of the press and the citizens.

Christina Holtz-Bacha

Backmatter

Titel: Opinion Polls and the Media
herausgegeben von: Christina Holtz-Bacha
Jesper Strömbäck
Verlag: Palgrave Macmillan UK
Electronic ISBN: 978-0-230-37495-9
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-32664-8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230374959