11. Organized Crime During and After the Pandemic

Organized criminal networks are known for their adaptability and the rapidity with which they exploit opportunities. The introduction of quarantine measures has impacted licit and illicit businesses alike, and restrictions of movement have prompted a doubling of efforts into cybercrime, fraud and counterfeiting whilst many forms of physical crime have momentarily slowed down. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has created opportunities for both organized criminal organizations and less sophisticated gangs in countries as diverse as, for instance, Brazil, Italy, Japan and South Africa to impose or expand their informal control and governance systems in the affected areas by distributing supplies and helping local communities during lockdowns. That ‘help’ comes with strings attached. In the post-pandemic period, it is reasonable to expect that criminals will take advantage of, among others, the expected economic downturn, growing unemployment levels, new opportunities for smuggling economic migrants, and changes in consumer demands and practices. At the same time, other forms of trafficking that are currently impaired by the pandemic are likely to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. This chapter assesses how COVID-19 has changed the way of doing illicit business and looks at how permanent those changes are likely to be in the coming years, before concluding with reflections on how law enforcement itself has and must contend with the changing criminal landscape.