Paradigms, Programmes and the Development of Economic Knowledge

The growth of anything is gradual and continuous, and its development is periodic and discrete. This contrast between growth and development has been observed in organisms, individuals, social entities and bodies of knowledge. The foetus grows continuously in the womb, but it develops into a full human being shortly before birth. A child grows and changes gradually, but he goes through a major transformation over the period of puberty. Economies and societies are in constant evolution, but they undergo basic and radical reorganisations on few occasions. Clearly, growth is a necessary condition for development; just as clearly, it may not be a sufficient condition. Individuals may grow without developing into mature human beings, and ideas may evolve without succeeding to add significantly to the existing knowledge. Indeed, there is no reason or evidence why development itself should be necessary — i.e. inevitable — in all comparable cases. Even the Darwinian and other theories of biological evolution do not claim such an inevitability. The fact that a group of apes, bears or whatever, may have once evolved into human forms does not mean that the existing apes are likely to follow suit some time in the future. Unfortunately, this is a simple lesson which — in a wide variety of fields — seems to be readily forgotten: even if development itself is inevitable it does not follow that all development is inevitable. Indeed, it is likely that in the fields of human thought and action no development would be possible without a commensurate supply of effort.