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26.08.2017

Policy Theories in Hard Times? Assessing the Explanatory Power of Policy Theories in the Context of Crisis

verfasst von: Georg Wenzelburger, Pascal D. König, Frieder Wolf

Erschienen in: Public Organization Review | Ausgabe 1/2019

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Abstract

Can the behavior of political actors in business-as-usual conditions be analyzed with the same theoretical framework as decision-making in situations characterized by uncertainty, ambiguity, complexity and urgency? After comparing major existing approaches and evaluating their explanatory logic under crisis circumstances, the present article develops a theoretical framework which explicitly accounts for the crisis characteristics at two stages of the policy making process, agenda-setting and decision-making. The bearing of policy-entrepreneurs, international networks, institutions and partisanship on policy outcomes critically depends on the specific workings on these levels in crisis-mode. These expectations are probed in an empirical re-evaluation of the 2011 Spanish pension reform.

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Fußnoten
1
Norbert Lammert, President of the German Bundestag, in an interview on the decision-making process in the context of the laws on the financial and euro crisis (Source: http://​www.​spiegel.​de/​politik/​deutschland/​interview-mit-norbert-lammert-es-gibt-ein-gefuehl-der-ueberforderung-im-bundestag-a-788994.​html, translation by the authors).
 
2
A previous version of this paper was presented at the International Conference on Public Policy in Milan (2014) (Panel T01P08). We thank all the participants for their helpful comments. This paper has also very much been improved due to comments by Reimut Zohlnhöfer and Helge Staff. The usual disclaimer applies.
 
3
There is a rather extensive literature on crisis management and public policy which deals for instance with the importance of leadership in crises (see for instance the special issue edited by Boin 2009). However, this literature usually deals with more specific crisis events, such as natural disasters (Boin et al. 2010) or terrorist attacks (Nohrstedt and Hansén 2010), whereas this paper is more interested in the effects a more enduring crisis context exerts on public policy making.
 
4
It is this common understanding of uncertainty which lies at the heart of Herbert Simon’s idea of bounded rationality (Simon 1957).
 
5
One of the rare exception is the work by Kuipers (2006), who focusses, however, less on the policy process and more on the rhetoric.
 
6
This initial framework has meanwhile be extended including additional categories, such as cultural variables or discourse and political strategies.
 
7
Kingdon (1984: 190) even describes individual qualities of successful policy entrepreneurs: They are more likely to be successful if they have some claim to a hearing (e.g. experts or leaders of interest groups), are well-known for their political connections, and are persistent and not giving up easily
 
8
Clearly, very different actors can be policy entrepreneurs (Mintrom and Norman 2009). In this paper, the primary focus is on interest groups and policy experts who try to push a reform proposal. These two categories comprise a large set of actors, such as NGOs, lobbies, corporatist interest groups, scientific experts, think tanks etc.. Besides, political decision-makers can also act as policy entrepreneurs if they push forward specific interests – e.g. of a certain lobby group.
 
9
A third micro-foundation connects parties to particularistic and clientelistic interests which exchange policies against vote blocks – a particular vote-seeking-link which might be important in certain circumstances and in certain political systems (Afonso et al. 2014).
 
10
A laudable exception is the theoretical framework proposed by Zohlnhöfer (2009).
 
11
If interest groups can even convince the political actor that adopting the solution would also make him win the votes of (at least) the interest group members, the vote-seeking motive might even play a role, too.
 
12
The ESM-payments to Spain were earmarked and only directed at the financial sector.
 
13
The Toledo Pact was a reform consensually adopted by the main parties and the social partners in 1995 that was to guarantee the stability and preservation of the social security system. The pact also established a permanent parliamentary commission to monitor and develop the welfare system, including the sustainable adjustment of pensions.
 
14
In fact, pension policies in Spain are very much based on the Toledo-pact – a social pact initially adopted by an all-party compromise in 1995 and endorsed by employers and trade unions (Molina 2005; Molina 2011).
 
15
In an interview with the authors, the former Minister of Social Affairs, Valeriano Gomez, acknowledged that the pressure from international partners did play a role. Most significant were contacts via the Open Method of Coordination of the EU as well as direct contacts “with the governments of the countries whose experiences seemed the most significant at the time of designing the reform in Spain” (Interview, 20.11.2016).
 
16
All the changes will be phased in gradually from 2013.
 
17
Valeriano Gómez in an interview with the authors, 4.11. and 20.11.2016.
 
18
Valeriano Gómez in an interview with the authors, 4.11.2016.
 
19
Valeriano Gómez in an interview with the authors, 4.11.2016. He also pointed out that the succeeding Rajoy-government could push through its pension reform in 2013 unilaterally because it had a majority in Parliament.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Policy Theories in Hard Times? Assessing the Explanatory Power of Policy Theories in the Context of Crisis
verfasst von
Georg Wenzelburger
Pascal D. König
Frieder Wolf
Publikationsdatum
26.08.2017
Verlag
Springer US
Erschienen in
Public Organization Review / Ausgabe 1/2019
Print ISSN: 1566-7170
Elektronische ISSN: 1573-7098
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11115-017-0387-1

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