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2019 | OriginalPaper | Buchkapitel

3. Political, Economic, and Social Developments 2007–18

verfasst von : Mats Lundahl, Fredrik Sjöholm

Erschienen in: The Creation of the East Timorese Economy

Verlag: Springer International Publishing

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Abstract

This chapter examines the development from 2007 until the present day. It includes detailed analyses of politics, fiscal policy, and social progress. After 2006, an aggressive spending policy began, on the one hand, via the transfer programs for veterans and internally displaced people, and, on the other hand, through investments in infrastructure as part of the strategic development plan. From 2007 until 2016, public expenditures expanded ten times, with the result that the size of the petroleum fund began to shrink from 2015. The new spending policy boosted economic growth substantially during a couple of years, but, thereafter, the rate declined. As it seems, income per capita has increased and the incidence of poverty has decreased. Also, ownership of consumer durables, education, and health care have developed favorably. However, malnutrition is much worse in East Timor than in comparable countries. Periodic food shortages continue to be a problem.

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Fußnoten
1
Kingsbury (2009), pp. 207–208.
 
2
Ibid., p. 191.
 
3
Vieira (2012), p. 10.
 
4
United Nations Security Council (2007), p. 16.
 
5
United Nations Security Council (2008), p. 16, van der Auweraet (2012), p. 6.
 
6
United Nations Security Council (2008), p. 1, International Crisis Group (2008), p. i.
 
7
Van der Auweraet (2012), p. 8.
 
8
Kingsbury (2009), p. 207. It was, however, far from always the case that the money received was used for housing purposes (Tusinski 2019).
 
9
Van der Auweraet (2012), p. 8.
 
10
International Crisis Group (2008), p. 3.
 
11
United Nations Security Council (2009a), p. 13.
 
12
United Nations Security Council (2009b), p. 14.
 
13
Durand (2006), p. 74.
 
14
Taylor (1999), p. 135.
 
15
Smith (2004), p. 287.
 
16
IPAC (2014), p. 12.
 
17
World Bank (2013a), p. 8.
 
18
International Crisis Group (2011), pp. 1–2.
 
19
Ibid., p. 1.
 
20
Ibid., p. 6. The number—‘unrealistically high given that Timor-Leste has a population of around one million and more than half of them are too young to have participated in the resistance struggle’—has remained about the same in recent years (Kent 2019, p.185).
 
21
Kent and Kinsella (2015), p. 214.
 
22
Ibid., p. 220.
 
23
Ibid., pp. 216–217.
 
24
World Bank (2013a), p. 47.
 
25
Ibid., p. 3.
 
26
Kent and Kinsella (2015), p. 217.
 
27
International Crisis Group (2011), pp. 14–15, IRIN (2014).
 
28
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 5.
 
29
Ibid.
 
30
Ibid., p. 6.
 
31
Shoesmith (2013), p. 131.
 
32
Público (2008), Shoesmith (2013), p. 132. For the evolution of Gusmão’s ruling strategy, see Kammen (2019).
 
33
Leach and Kingsbury (2013), p. 8.
 
34
Shoesmith (2013), p. 132.
 
35
Ibid.
 
36
Ibid., pp. 133–134.
 
37
Ibid., p. 132.
 
38
Ibid., p. 126.
 
39
Ibid., pp. 128–129.
 
40
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 9.
 
41
Ibid., p. 10.
 
42
Ibid., pp. 9–10.
 
43
Leach and Kingsbury (2013), pp. 13–14.
 
44
Ibid., p. 22.
 
45
Ibid.
 
46
Ibid., p. 23.
 
47
The Economist Intelligence Unit (2017), pp. 8, 34, (2018), pp. 6, 26. For a brief summary of the struggle to build democracy in the country, see Feijó (2019).
 
48
Cummins and Leach (2013), p. 176.
 
49
Ibid., p. 173.
 
50
Ibid., p. 170.
 
51
Horta (2014).
 
52
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 13.
 
53
Ibid., p. 15.
 
54
Leach (2015).
 
55
Pereira (2014).
 
56
Kingsbury (2015), Panda (2015).
 
57
Government of Timor-Leste (2015a).
 
58
UNDP (2014).
 
59
Leach (2015). For a discussion of intergenerational issues in East Timorese politics, see Nygaard-Christensen and Bexley (2019).
 
60
Beuman (2015a).
 
61
Beuman (2015b).
 
62
Beuman (2014a).
 
63
The law proposal is found in Human Rights Watch (2014a). For criticism, see, for example, Robie (2014a, b), Gosford (2014), Gillies (2014), Human Rights Watch (2014b), Kine (2014), Betteridge (2014), and La’o Hamutuk (2016a).
 
64
International Federation of Journalists (2014).
 
65
Beuman (2014b).
 
66
La’o Hamutuk (2016a).
 
67
Beuman (2016a).
 
68
SAPO 24 (2016).
 
69
Murdoch (2016).
 
70
Beuman (2016b).
 
71
Life at Aitarak Laran (2016).
 
72
Diário de Notícias (2016).
 
73
The political system of East Timor is usually labeled ‘semi-presidential’, that is, the country has a popularly elected fixed-term president and a prime minister and a cabinet that is responsible to a parliament (Elgie 1999). Other definitions add one more requirement: that the president should have ‘considerable powers’ (Duverger 1980, p. 166). For the debate of the case of East Timor, see Kingsbury (2013), Feijó (2014, 2016a, b), Strating (2016), and Beuman (2016c, d).
 
74
The Economist Intelligence Unit (2015a), Guide Post (2017).
 
75
Gomes (2017), Kingsbury and Maley (2017).
 
76
Feijó (2017).
 
77
Election Guide (n.d.).
 
78
Davidson (2017a), Black (2017).
 
79
Downer (2017).
 
80
European Union Election Observation Mission (2017).
 
81
Asia Foundation (2017), p. 13.
 
82
Center for Insights in Survey Results (2017).
 
83
Asia Foundation (2017), p. 35.
 
84
Kingsbury (2017).
 
85
Leach (2017a), p. 2.
 
86
Leach (2017b), p. 2.
 
87
Feijó (2017), p.1.
 
88
Feijó (2018a), p. 2.
 
89
Ibid., p. 3.
 
90
Ibid.
 
91
European Union (EU) (2018).
 
92
The reason that a large share of the votes did not materialize in more seats is that fewer votes went to political parties that failed to meet the 4 percent threshold (Feijó 2018b).
 
93
The AMP kept its acronym but changed its name to Aliança de Mudança para o Progresso (Alliance for Change for Progress).
 
94
Feijó (2018c).
 
95
Ibid.
 
96
World Bank (2013a), p. 47. In 2011, the figure was a mere 1 percent.
 
97
Ibid., p. 52.
 
98
Ibid., pp. 50–51. Cf. also World Bank (2018d), for more statistics.
 
99
World Bank (2018b), pp. 33–34.
 
100
Ibid.
 
101
World Bank (2013a), pp. 1, 35.
 
102
Ibid., p. 40.
 
103
Wallis (2019), p. 43.
 
104
Kammen (2019), p. 43.
 
105
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste (2011a).
 
106
International Monetary Fund (2007), p. 42.
 
107
World Bank (2018d), p. 50.
 
108
Ministry of Finance and the World Bank (2015), p. ix.
 
109
Ibid, p. x.
 
110
Ibid.
 
111
International Monetary Fund (2017), p. 2.
 
112
See Chapter 6.
 
113
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 28.
 
114
Ibid.
 
115
International Monetary Fund (2013), p. 30.
 
116
International Monetary Fund (2016), p. 5.
 
117
Doraisami (2018), p.255.
 
118
International Monetary Fund (2013), p. 5.
 
119
See Chapter 5.
 
120
See Chapter 4.
 
121
International Monetary Fund (2013), p. 22.
 
122
For a more detailed discussion of the private sector, see Chapter 4.
 
123
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 28.
 
124
Curtain (2018a), p. 1.
 
125
Ibid., p.2.
 
126
Curtain (2018b), p.1. For a summary of the remittance issue, see McWilliam and Monteiro (2019).
 
127
Wigglesworth (2018).
 
128
Ibid., p. 4.
 
129
Curtain (2018a), p. 4.
 
130
McWilliam and Monteiro (2019), p. 144. The figure is likely to be on the low side, since it does not capture undeclared funds carried back home in person.
 
131
Curtain (2018b), p.1. For a summary of the remittance issue, see McWilliam and Monteiro (2019).
 
132
McWilliam and Monteiro (2019), p. 142.
 
133
World Bank (2018d), p. 7.
 
134
World Bank (2007a), p. ii.
 
135
International Finance Corporation and Asian Development Bank (2007), p. 16.
 
136
International Monetary Fund (2016), p. 8.
 
137
Ministry of Finance and the World Bank (2015), p. 16.
 
138
Viñuela (2014), p. 356.
 
139
International Crisis Group (2013), p. 12.
 
140
World Bank (2013a), p. 29.
 
141
Ministry of Finance of Timor-Leste, General Directorate of Statistics (2016), p. 5.
 
142
Planning Commission (2002b).
 
143
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste et al. (2003), World Bank (2003).
 
144
Direcção Nacional de Estatística (2008).
 
145
World Bank (2016c).
 
146
Ibid., p. 21.
 
147
World Bank (2012).
 
148
Inder et al. (2014), p. 7.
 
149
World Bank (2013a), p. 18.
 
150
See also International Monetary Fund (2013).
 
151
As reported in IRIN (2011a). See also e.g. International Finance Corporation and Asian Development Bank (2007), p. 15.
 
152
IFPRI (2011).
 
153
World Bank (2018d), p. 20.
 
154
Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Seeds of Life (2013), pp. 40–42.
 
155
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), pp. 188–189.
 
156
National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), p. 151.
 
157
IRIN (2011b).
 
158
World Bank (2016c), p. 36, Provo et al. (2017), p. 15. The underweight indicator does not distinguish between children who are thin and children who are short but have adequate weight. It has hence been replaced by stunting as the main anthropometric indicator for children (Provo et al. 2017, p. 18).
 
159
Provo et al. (2017), pp. 20–21.
 
160
Ibid., p. 22. The body mass index (BMI) is defined as the weight in kgs divided by the square of the height (m2).
 
161
National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), Table 12.1.
 
162
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste (2015).
 
163
Provo et al. (2017), p. 41.
 
164
For an overview of the main policy issues, see ibid., Chapters 4–7.
 
165
IRIN (2008).
 
166
Provo et al. (2017), pp. 98–99.
 
167
For more information, see National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), p. 27.
 
168
Anderson (2014), pp. 305–306.
 
169
Ibid., pp. 307–309.
 
170
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), p. 118.
 
171
Methods to improve maternal, child and neo-natal health in East Timor are discussed in Fabricant (2013).
 
172
Direcção Nacional de Estatística (2008), Tables 6.16, 6.19, 6.22, 6.25, 6.28.
 
173
National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), p. 173.
 
174
Direcção Geral de Estatística (2013a), p. 52.
 
175
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), p. 211.
 
176
Ibid.
 
177
National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), p. 23.
 
178
Ministry of Health (2004), p. v.
 
179
United Nations International Children’s Education Fund—UNICEF (2003), p. 45, National Statistics Directorate et al. (2010), p. 24.
 
180
Quoted in IRIN (2013).
 
181
Hou and Asante (2016), p. 4.
 
182
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), p. 261.
 
183
Direcção Geral de Estatística (2013a), p. 48.
 
184
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), p. 130.
 
185
Direcção Nacional de Estatística, Ministerio das Finanças (2008), Table 6.7.
 
186
Ministry of Health (2004), p. 2. Issues of mental health in East Timor are discussed in Barnes et al. (2019).
 
187
For a discussion of to what extent different types of health services favor the rich and the poor, respectively, see World Bank (2014a).
 
188
World Bank (2018d), p. 31.
 
189
Hou and Asante (2016), p. 9.
 
190
International Finance Corporation and Asian Development Bank (2007), p. 36.
 
191
UNDP (2018), p. 109.
 
192
Hou and Asante (2016), p. 12.
 
193
Ibid., pp. 25–26.
 
194
Ibid., p. 1.
 
195
Ibid.
 
196
Ibid., p. 28.
 
197
Ibid., p. 29.
 
198
Ibid., pp. 39, 36.
 
199
Ibid., pp. 43–44, 52.
 
200
Justino et al. (2011).
 
201
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2017), p. 51.
 
202
Direcção Nacional de Estatística, Ministerio das Finanças (2008), Table 5.10.
 
203
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2017), pp. 48, 52.
 
204
UNICEF (2003), p. viii.
 
205
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2017), p. 59.
 
206
World Bank (2018d), p. 29.
 
207
World Bank (2004a), p. 5.
 
208
Direcção Nacional de Estatística (2008), Table 5.13.
 
209
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2018), p. 27.
 
210
Ibid., p. 32.
 
211
World Bank (2018d), p. 30.
 
212
Ibid.
 
213
UNICEF (2003), p. xii.
 
214
SEPFOPE and DGE (2013), p. 33.
 
215
World Bank (2004b), p. xix.
 
216
UNICEF (2003), p. A I-30. The net enrolment rate is ‘the number of students of relevant ages enrolled in a particular level of schooling over the number of people of the relevant ages’ (ibid., p. A I-28).
 
217
UNDP (2018), p. 47.
 
218
World Bank (2004b), pp. 28–31, (2007a), p. 41, International Finance Corporation, and Asian Development Bank, (2007), p. 19, World Bank (2008), p. 2.
 
219
World Bank (2004b), p. 35–37.
 
220
International Finance Corporation and Asian Development Bank (2007), p. 22.
 
221
Ibid.
 
222
Direcção Nacional de Estatística (2008), p. 22. As noted in Chapter 5 in Volume 1, a voter survey carried out by the Asian Foundation obtained a much higher figure for Portuguese: 17 percent.
 
223
Note that the 2010 and 2015 figures include not only ability to speak.
 
224
General Directorate of Statistics et al. (2017), p. 48.
 
225
Note that a comparison of the index over time could be biased by changes in the methodology. Comparisons across countries should be less problematic.
 
226
La’o Hamutuk (2013a).
 
227
Direcção Nacional de Estatística (2008), Tables 9.1–9.9 provide such subjective measures on well-being for 2001 and 2007.
 
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Metadaten
Titel
Political, Economic, and Social Developments 2007–18
verfasst von
Mats Lundahl
Fredrik Sjöholm
Copyright-Jahr
2019
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-22052-5_3