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Über dieses Buch

Seeking clarity about the conflict in Ukraine and responding to the urgent need to analyze Europe's energy prospects outside of Russia, Kandiyoti links analysis of real energy infrastructure with analysis of the political and economic dynamics unfolding at local, national, regional, and global levels.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

Frontmatter

Introduction

Natural gas from Russia represents a significant proportion of EU energy imports. This introductory chapter outlines recent shifts in the post-Soviet geopolitical settlement between the EU, NATO and Russia and its impact on trans-European energy links. In Ukraine, the heart of Russia’s gas transmission networks, competition for influence between the West and Russia has exacerbated cleavages in society, leading to war in the East and the prospect of a new Cold War across Europe.
Rafael Kandiyoti

1. Europe, Russia, Ukraine: One Continent?

This chapter presents a survey of Europe’s geopolitical topography, concentrating on developments in Central and Eastern Europe since the breakup of the Soviet Union. Ukraine’s position as a focal point of geopolitical rivalry between the United States, the European Union and Russia will be examined against a backdrop of Russian energy exports to the West. The eastward expansion of NATO and the EU has sharpened the competition between Russia and the West, accentuated vacillations within Ukraine’s political elites and aggravated a host of domestic Ukrainian rivalries. Meanwhile, the population’s yearning for decent governance has gone unheeded.
Rafael Kandiyoti

2. A Quietly Voracious Continent: Europe’s Oil and Gas Imports

This chapter reviews key aspects of natural gas transmission before tracing the evolution of gas trading between the Soviet Union and Western Europe from the late 1960s. The construction of new gas transmission infrastructure connecting Western Siberia to the rest of Europe is described, against a background of opposition by every American administration, beginning with Ronald Reagan in the early 1980s. The chapter is concluded with a summary of North African gas supplies to Europe.
Rafael Kandiyoti

3. Natural Gas as a Political Weapon?

From the outset, Western European and Soviet officials were aware that the gas trade across the iron curtain involved political risks. During the decades that followed, their cooperation survived several major East-West crises without affecting the gas trade. However, Brussels’s intervention in its pursuit of open access to Russia’s energy resources was rejected by Russia. From about 2005 onwards, the European Commission increasingly took it upon itself to control and limit the energy relationship with Gazprom. Meanwhile, Russia’s gas exports to former Soviet republics were complicated by difficulties to pay, followed by Russian demands for political and economic concessions. In Ukraine, the involvement of “oligarchs” as intermediaries at both ends led to interminable additional complications.
Rafael Kandiyoti

4. Nabucco, South Stream and the Southern Gas Corridor

This chapter presents the contours of two giant natural gas projects designed to supply the EU: the EU-sponsored “Nabucco” and Gazprom’s “South Stream.” The manner in which both projects have been cancelled is revealing of the way business is currently being conducted in the EU. One variant of “Nabucco” would have linked up to a trans-Caspian pipeline from Turkmenistan but has been resisted by Russia and Iran. Only Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz 2 project is still on track, expected to deliver 10 bcm/year to the southern Italian grid by the year 2020.
Rafael Kandiyoti

5. Russian Geopolitics and Ukrainian War

This chapter reviews relations between the EU-NATO tandem and Russia during the period leading up to the latest Ukrainian crisis. President Yanukovich was overthrown following his decision to join the Eurasian Customs Union and power in Kiev has passed to Western Ukrainian nationalists. After Russia annexed Crimea, a rebellion was set off in the Donbas against the new power in Kiev. The decision to restore Kiev’s authority in the East by force of arms has led to civil war. Successive stages of the conflict are explored to identify the forces shaping the fortunes of Ukraine, at the heart of Europe’s energy transmission networks.
Rafael Kandiyoti

6. Economic Warfare and Europe’s Gas Supplies

The cascade of sanctions put in place by the United States and the EU are examined. Having reached the present adversarial configuration, the EU also aims to limit its natural gas imports from Russia. Current options for substituting Russian gas with alternative supplies are reviewed within a global framework of trading routes, accessibility, lead times and price structures. The added costs and geopolitical implications of altering suppliers and supplies are assessed.
Rafael Kandiyoti

7. New Cold War?

This chapter summarizes the main points concerning the current impasse in the trans-European gas trade, the limits of rolling NATO and the EU eastwards, Germany’s new posture within the emerging European matrix, Ukraine’s ever more precarious positioning in Eastern Europe and the state of the new Cold War. Surfacing differences between European and American objectives concerning the conflict in Eastern Europe are also summarized.
Rafael Kandiyoti

Backmatter

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